Weekend Box #130: The State We're In, Cuba in Crisis & More

Editor's Note

Welcome to The Weekend Box, Audley’s round-up of interesting or obscure political, business, and cultural news from around the world.

At the end of every busy week in Westminster, ministerial private offices ask their departments to submit papers to the ‘weekend box’ for Ministers and Secretaries of State to catch up with over the weekend. Similarly, we would like to send you into the weekend with a few stories to catch up with at your leisure.

So, let’s delve inside The Weekend Box.

The State We're In

Wednesday’s Budget was a reminder of the unhealthy state of Britain’s public finances. If Rachel Reeves is to avoid raising more tax at a future budget, or growing the country’s debt pile still more, the economy will need to grow at a decent clip. The trouble is forecasts predict GDP growth will be anaemic for the next few years, only 1.5% on average. This is not the 2.5 – 3% needed for Britain to keep funding its growing public services, pensions and healthcare needs brought on by an ageing population.

A?less-than-friendly media reception – and some hostile celebrity tweets – will have reminded Labour that being in opposition is much easier. And as if to prove the point, former prime minister?Rishi Sunak, in his response to the budget, delivered arguably his best performance at the despatch box. Politicos were left wondering if he could have used a bit more of the vim and passion he showed on Wednesday when leading the country.

This was?Sunak’s last performance as Conservative Party Leader. This weekend, we will find out who replaces him. The lengthy – and largely uneventful – leadership contest has not yielded the serious and meaningful debate about the future of the Conservative movement as promised by party grandees.

Whether it’s?Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick as leader, the party faces a huge task. Labour’s early faltering should offer little solace; the government has ample time to turn things around. Hard work is needed to win back the votes leached in the affluent south of England over the last decade and to beat off Nigel Farage’s Reform in the north and east.??

Sir Keir Starmer showed that refreshing a political party quickly is possible. But it takes vision, ruthlessness and discipline. The new Tory leader will need all three in spades.?

Image Credit: Alaur Rahman. License.

Cuba in Crisis?

Spare a thought for the Cubans. They have been enduring a power cut crisis for the last two weeks for which there are many aggravating factors and few prospects for improvement.

Regular temporary power cuts are a fact of life in Cuba, but a 24-hour, all-out power cut affecting some 10 million people occurred on 18 October, after the Antonio Guiteras power plant, a Soviet-era oil-burning plant, failed.

This came just ahead of Hurricane Oscar hitting Cuba, adding further jeopardy to the situation. Cubans have been left suffering from the loss of air conditioning, food refrigeration and drinking water supply, all of which depend upon electricity. As with Hurricane Ian in September 2022, the power cuts brought the country to a standstill.

83% of Cuba’s power is generated through burning oil products, and another 12% from natural gas, most of which is imported, mainly from Venezuela or Mexico. Ecological concerns aside, this is inefficient and costly, as well as being vulnerable to disruption. This time, bad weather disrupted shipping, while Venezuela halved supply amidst its own problems.

With regular sunshine, solar power is an obvious solution, but previous efforts have failed and a new deal with a Chinese firm in return for access to nickel deposits is also far from assured. Cuba’s recent brain drain, where the island’s population?fell by 18% - over a million - between 2022 and 2023 provides a substantial obstacle in this regard.?

Most emigrants head for the US. Cuba blames US sanctions, ongoing since 1960, for aggravating this crisis and losses of $5bn in the last year. This week the UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly and for the 32nd time for the US to end them. Measures have varied in severity under different presidents. Cubans must now await the US elections to see what lies ahead.

Image Credit: Andrew Wragg. License.

Wheels Coming Off??

Volkswagen has announced plans to close three plants and lay off tens of thousands of workers amid a 64% drop in quarterly net profit. For Europe’s largest carmaker, the plans represent the most radical restructuring in the company’s 87-year history.

The news follows warnings last month that VW had the equivalent of two factories of spare capacity in Germany. Redundancies are expected across the workforce with whole divisions to be closed or sent overseas. “The headwinds have increased. We must intensify our efforts to remain competitive,” said Chief Financial Officer Arno Antlitz, although he declined to comment on specific restructuring details.

The challenging results were published just hours before negotiations with unions on Wednesday, who are demanding a 7% pay rise for employees. Without progress, the IG Metall union has warned over the possibility of strikes, saying negotiations “cannot go indefinitely.”

Conversely, management plans have instead called for 10% pay cuts for workers. “We must acknowledge that the situation is becoming increasingly serious,” said Arne Meiswinkel, VW’s chief negotiator, ahead of the discussions. Daniela Cavallo, the works council boss, has lambasted this suggestion as “starvation.”

Volkswagen’s struggles come as Europe’s carmakers find themselves squeezed on all sides. Increasing competition from China has coincided with falling demand in Europe and stricter EU/UK legislation on carbon emissions. The results “demonstrate the urgent need for action in a volatile environment characterised by intense competition,” Antlitz said on Wednesday.

More generally, the deterioration in Volkswagen’s prospects amplify wider concerns about Germany’s economy. Business and consumer confidence is at a low ebb, with manufacturing and services businesses this month recording the steepest drop in employment in nearly four and a half years. Given tight constraints on borrowing and a fractious three-way governing coalition, analysts fear brighter economic fortunes may remain elusive for the time being.

Image Credit: Ivan Radic. License.

A Grate Cheese Robbery

In a heist that has captivated food lovers, police have arrested a 63-year-old man following the theft of 22 tonnes of cheese from London’s Neal’s Yard Dairy.

The suspect allegedly posed as a wholesale distributor to secure a ￡300,000 haul of premium cheddar intended for French retail markets. Instead, the cheese may have been trafficked abroad, with suspicions pointing to Russia or the Middle East.

The bold scam unfolded on October 21, and London’s Metropolitan Police have confirmed the suspect was detained and questioned at a south London police station before being bailed pending further investigation. The heist has reverberated through the food industry, especially affecting Westcombe Dairy and other small-scale British producers, although Neal’s Yard stepped up to cover their costs to shield them from the financial blow.

The bizarre crime even drew comments from celebrity chef Jamie Oliver, who rallied public awareness on social media, urging his followers to look out for suspiciously cheap “posh cheese.” He called the theft a “grate cheese robbery” and warned against “wrong’uns” potentially peddling the world-renowned cheddar at bargain prices.

Tom?Calver, director of Westcombe Dairy, one of the producers affected, described his shock at the theft but praised Neal’s Yard for their support. “We are just trying to support them as much as possible,” Calver noted, encouraging people to continue shopping at Neal’s Yard in the wake of the loss.

Image Credit: Heather Cowper. License.

Swiss Party Takes Pop At Eurovision

“Couldn’t escape if I wanted to,” ABBA famously sang in their Eurovision Song Contest-winning single ‘Waterloo.’ But that’s not the attitude of one Swiss political party, which this week triggered a referendum aiming to prevent Switzerland from hosting the next Eurovision.

The “small conservative Christian political party” the Federal Democratic Union of Switzerland promised earlier this year to launch a referendum into the 37.5m Swiss francs being borrowed by the city of Basel to host the 2025 Song Contest, after Switzerland’s contestant Nemo – the first openly non-binary artist to represent the country – won this year’s Eurovision in May.

Describing the song contest as “rife with antisemitism, blasphemy and Satanism,” the party has asked why the Swiss people should pay a “hefty bill” for a “woke party.” It's president has also singled out “destructive things like the third gender” among his party’s grievances with the contest.

In its long history, Eurovision has come under criticism many times; from Britain, for example, where we take our growing track record of losses sorely (see: ‘Eurovision settles it. We had to leave the EU.’ Certain European and non-European countries have voiced complaints or boycotted the contest due to its track record of platforming LGBTQ+ artists.

However, it’s rare to see an attempt from within a winning country to boycott the contest, not only doing so on grounds of ‘wokery’ but taking aim at its winner in the process.

While Politico note that Switzerland’s “direct democracy,” which enables voters to vote on policy questions up to four times a year, “offers citizens a much more sophisticated tool to take their culture war grievances directly to ballot boxes,” Swiss media suggests that the campaign is unlikely to gain a majority.

The party may have given a new meaning to being a ‘sore winner,’ but it seems this is one contest they won’t be winning.

Image Credit: Michael Doherty. License.?

And that's it for this week. I hope you found something of interest that you might want to delve into further. If so, please get in touch at [email protected]

For now, that’s The Weekend Box officially closed.?

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