Weekend Box #123: Demographic Backsliding, SpaceX & more

Editor's Note

Welcome to The Weekend Box, Audley’s round-up of interesting or obscure political, business, and cultural news from around the world.

At the end of every busy week in Westminster, ministerial private offices ask their departments to submit papers to the ‘weekend box’ for Ministers and Secretaries of State to catch up with over the weekend. Similarly, we would like to send you into the weekend with a few stories to catch up with at your leisure.

So, let’s delve inside The Weekend Box.

BORDERING ON RIDICULOUS

Germany is set to introduce temporary border controls at all nine of its land borders in response to growing irregular immigration. In August, it was revealed nearly?270,000 people entered Germany illegally in 2023.

The controls, which are an expansion of measures already in place on borders with Austria, Switzerland, Poland, and the Czech Republic, have resulted in the return of 30,000 people since October 2023.

The new policy has stirred political controversy. Some critics argue that the controls could undermine the entire?Schengen Agreement, a cornerstone of freedom of movement policy, itself a fundamental part of the EU project.

Others see it as a naked attempt to appease populist anti-immigration parties. Alternative?für Deutschland (AfD) recently made significant electoral gains by focusing on the scale of immigration and a recent terror attack in the city of Solingen carried out by a suspected member of ISIS.

However, the move faces legal challenges, with critics –?including Polish prime minister Donald Tusk – arguing it could strain EU unity and violate the Schengen system.

Meanwhile, the cadre of?Eurosceptic leaders of European countries reacted with glee. Geert Wilders, a right-wing populist whose VVD party won the last Dutch general election said in response: “Good idea, we have to do it too!”

The move may not be enough to improve the electoral fortunes of beleaguered Chancellor?Olaf Scholz or his government.

And it may yet have serious repercussions at an?EU level.

In the week when?Mario Draghi called for greater European unity and a focus on economic growth to improve the bloc’s fortunes, the border decision by Germany will have dampened hopes of greater EU integration. The prospect of key member states renewing focus on EU-wide issues instead of being preoccupied with domestic agendas seems remote.

Image Credit: ErichJacobi. License.

DEMS: LAUGHING UP THEIR SLEEVES

It’s the first and last rule of political campaigning: win the framing and you win the contest. That’s what?Kamala Harris did during the televised presidential debate this week; so much so, that former President Trump is now running scared from facing her again.?

Harris’s simple formulation – go forward with her or back with President Trump – has shaken up the contest and put the Republican contender on the back foot. But it is another tactical development that really catches the eye: the use of ridicule to get under the Republican Party’s skin.?

For years, Democrats have struggled to respond to the unconventional campaigning techniques of former President Trump and his?MAGA movement. Dire warnings about a ‘threat to democracy,’ while arguably well-founded, just appeared far-fetched. Put simply, one side seemed to a bit too serious, while the other appeared to be having fun.?

Now the Democrats have flipped this on its head. Tim?Walz’s simple description of the Republicans as ‘weird’ seemed to capture a truth. The embrace of JD Vance’s ‘childless cat lady’ jibe as a badge of honour rather than shame – witness Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris this week – acts as reminder of his peculiar views. And the sight of Vice President Harris smiling widely as Trump fell into her trap at this week’s debate, veering off into a long rant about the size of the crowds at his rallies, sticks in the mind.?

The use of satire in politics is as old as time. Whether it will be enough to swing the election remains to be seen. The candidates remain neck and neck in the key battleground states; it could yet go either way. But at least they’re making a fight of it.

At one stage the Republicans thought they had it in the bag. Well, as?Bob Monkhouse might have put it, they’re not laughing now.

Image Credit: Gage Skidmore. License.

EU TAKES BIG BITE OUT OF APPLE

Apple has had an expensive week, after the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled that it must pay over €13bn in unpaid taxes in Ireland.

The ruling backed up a 2016 claim made by European Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager, who found that the iPhone maker benefited from a tax regime over two decades that artificially reduced its tax burden.

The Irish government had sided with Apple in legal submissions since 2016, having offered Apple and other Big Tech corporations favourable tax regimes to attract them to Ireland. But the court ruled that Ireland had granted ‘unlawful aid’ not available to resident companies and must recover the taxes.

Having accepted this week’s final ruling, the Irish government is now considering how best to spend the windfall, which is equivalent to about half of all corporate taxes expected to be raised this year.

Apple claimed it had paid all due taxes in line with tax laws for the period, accused the EC of retroactively changing the rules, and said it was ‘disappointed’ with the ruling.

Faced with such a hefty bill, Apple must be hoping that its new AI-featuring iPhone 16, launched this week, will revive sales and get the revenues in. iPhones have come to account for over half of Apple’s sales, but sales figures in June had slipped by about 1% on last year.

The iPhone 16 range has longer lasting batteries, more powerful chips, and is designed specifically to handle its AI tools, which include a function to incorporate ChatGPT into the Siri vocal search and assistance function. It faces international competition, however, not least from Huawei’s new Mate XT trifold AI smartphone, to be launched simultaneously and costing an eye-watering $2,800.

Image Credit: Christopher Chan. License.

DEMOGRAPHIC BACKSLIDING

In an historic period of antagonism with the West, Russia has been hit with a “catastrophic” new crisis, as data published this week reveals its birth rate has fallen to its lowest since 1999.

According to the governmental statistics agency?Rosstat, 599,600 children were born in Russia over the first half of 2024, 16,000 fewer than were born in the same period in 2023. June also saw the number of newborns in Russia fall 6% to 98,600, marking not only the first monthly decline in births but the first time they have fallen below 100,000.

Russia has long experienced demographic issues. In the 1990s, its birth rate fell to?1.16 per woman – lower than during World War II – as a result of numerous factors including declining fertility rates, a struggling healthcare system, and an increase in employment among women.

In 2020, President Vladimir?Putin promised larger tax breaks for families in an effort to increase the average birth rate from under 1.5 per woman to 1.7 within four years.

However, four years later, the rate has fallen further to 1.4. Presidential spokesperson?Dmitry Peskov has described the data as “catastrophic for the future of the nation.” The drop and concurrently accelerating population decline – 49,000 more deaths recorded this year than in 2023 – have been attributed to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Politician Nina?Ostanina has called for a response to the issue in the form of “another special operation … Just like a special military operation – a special demographic operation."

Russia is not alone in experiencing this sort of crisis. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has?declared a “national emergency” in response to his country’s plummeting fertility rate, which – strangely – is reflected in the data on strollers South Koreans have purchased for their pets. In 2023, it was 57%, versus the 43% purchased for babies.

THE SKY'S NO LIMIT

On Thursday afternoon, 435 miles above Earth, billionaire Jared Isaacman?made history. Stepping outside the spacecraft he commanded, on a SpaceX mission he funded, Isaacman became the first person to complete a commercial spacewalk.

Isaacman, 41, had his own ‘one small step’ moment prepared. On exiting the Crew Dragon capsule, he said: “Back at home, we all have a lot of work to do. But from here, Earth sure looks like a perfect world.”

Both?Isaacman and Sarah Gillis, 30, a senior engineer at?SpaceX, successfully exited the vehicle in new SpaceX suits, which are much slimmer versions of NASA’s and promise to give astronauts much better mobility to conduct experiments in space.

The walk was also unusual because the entire capsule was completely?depressurised to enable the walk. This meant the whole crew, including the two inside, relied on their spacesuits for oxygen and pressure, rather than having a separate airlocked area within the capsule as is the norm.

Polaris Dawn is the first of three missions that?SpaceX plans to run in its Polaris programme and has been hailed as a milestone in the journey towards space tourism. Previously, only well-funded government agencies have been able to conduct spacewalks, mostly from the International?Space?Station and the Chinese Tiangong space station.

This reflects the trend towards private companies taking the lead in space exploration. NASA has contracted SpaceX?to land astronauts, including the first woman, on the moon this decade.

Polaris Dawn is scheduled to return to earth on 14th September, landing off either the east or west coast of Florida. Notoriously one of the most dangerous parts of space travel, their mission is not over yet.

Image Credit: Polaris Program Photos. License.

And that's it for this week. I hope you found something of interest that you might want to delve into further. If so, please get in touch at [email protected]

For now, that’s The Weekend Box officially closed.

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