A week of regional discussions
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Welcome to another edition of the Latin America Update!
In this edition you can read about:
We hope you enjoy it!
What did Davos mean for Latin America? ( Paulina Lainez Miccolo )
This past week, leaders from Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, and Ecuador, convened in the annual World Economic Forum meetings to discuss the most pressing issues affecting the region, including the ways in which governments are tackling the after-effects of the post-pandemic world.?
Many economies, especially in Latin America, are still reeling from a tumultuous two years of unprecedented disruptions in every aspect of society. As such, establishing an integrated regional agenda has been deemed a priority for the leaders present in the Davos’ forum. Per Brazilian Minister Haddad, regional integration is “absolutely necessary for development ” and in order to bring about any change, countries should first have a “real voice” in international discussions. Yet he argues, this doesn’t come without its share of issues, including a lack of financial integration and the absolute need to strengthen already-existing trading blocs. Aligned with this priority, Costa Rica and Ecuador recently signed a new trade policy agreement that plans to foster economic growth by removing import/export taxes between both nations.
Reconstructing the Social Fabric
Without a doubt, revitalising an economy in a precarious time has been a massive task. In the case of Latin America, the pandemic not only evidenced existing inequalities but it also exacerbated them. For Ecuador, a post-pandemic priority is to fight against corruption and use funds for social programs. In the case of the Dominican Republic, strategies such as the reinforcement of existing businesses plus financing entrepreneurs in order to empower them has been key in battling political and social cleavages. Similarly, Costa Rica has focused on achieving gender parity and respect for minorities under the motto “people, planet, and prosperity.”
On the other hand, President Petro seemed to analyse the situation through a different lens by highlighting how changing perspectives on the war on drugs is key to achieving peace in the region given the multinational nature of the issue. According to Petro, the way to tackle it is an ongoing debate but through education and prevention, this can be done.?
Common Agenda - A Green Future
Besides discussing ways of rebuilding after the pandemic, Latin American leaders agreed on the importance of green energy and how they’re betting on it in order to bring in a new era of economic prosperity. Costa Rica has spearheaded the movement and other countries are now trying to replicate the success renewable energy has brought. Through multilateral cooperation, social and political inclusion, and investments in green technologies, the region is focused on making the continent a leader in clean energy.?
Brazil: Fractures Between Lula Government and His Security State ( Joseph Bouchard )
On January 8th, Bolsonaro supporters stormed the headquarters of all three branches of the Brazilian government, in the heart of its capital. They called for military intervention to restore Bolsonaro as President.
Various politicians’ offices were ransacked , art destroyed and stolen, while hundreds occupied the buildings themselves until the military police arrived to make arrests.?
The Lula administration, which had taken office only a week prior, quickly began investigations into the rioters and those responsible.?
The intelligence services and police claim that the Brazilian government was aware of the rioters’ plan, but Lula contests this claims.?
In a tweet directed at his security state, Lula stated that “if I had known, I would not have travelled”, and that “no intelligence helped to let me know that this could have happened.”?
Members of the security state, including the military police and their families, have already been linked to the riots, with some alleging that local and military police helped rioters through that day.?
Lula has made increasingly clear with every public statement that he does not trust his security state, and rifts between him and those meant to protecting him are growing. Lula puts a large share of the blame on his intelligence services. He removed soldiers from the presidential guard, and fired most of his security detail.
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Lula moved forward with arrest warrants and firings of high-level public security officials taking place since the 8th. Anderson Torres, the former public security chief in Brasilia, was arrested this week, as was Fabio Augusto, the former military police commander in Brasilia. Both were close allies of ousted President Jair Bolsonaro.?
Lula points to the far-right’s rhetoric and policies for January 8th, as well.?
Mass counter-protests have taken place in Rio de Janeiro and S?o Paulo, with some smaller protests in Brasília and the Northeast. The counter-protesters have called for stronger democracy and for accountability for the rioters, the police services, and politicians like Bolsonaro blamed with inciting the riots.?
On the right, some have adopted the conspiracy theory that the left-wing were behind the riots, and that this was simply a plot to justify Lula’s taking of power away from them. Most have stood behind Bolsonaro, though some voters and politicians came out against the riots.
With domestic and international pressure mounting against the attack and its perpetrators, more arrests of rioters, firings and arrests of top-level officials will be conducted. Yet, Bolsonaro will likely not be investigated directly by the executive branch or Lula, though judges may recommend a criminal referral.?
Still, pressure keeps mounting to deport Bolsonaro, currently in the United States, and, with sufficient pressure and resurging evidence of involvement, the current government in Brasília may decide to prosecute Bolsonaro and his allies.?
Brazil’s security state, including its military police and intelligence services, may also be restructured, depending on the results of the ongoing commissioned investigation into “intelligence failures” on January 8th.
Buenos Aires prepares to host CELAC Summit ( Fernando Prats )
On January 24th, Buenos Aires is hosting CELAC's (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) presidential summit. CELAC is an intergovernmental mechanism aimed at promoting political dialogue and concertation.
Argentina is hosting the summit after holding the presidency in 2022. Some of the aspects in which Alberto Fernández’ administration has made emphasis during this period were post-pandemic recovery; health issues; technology, science and innovation and the protection of the environment. CELAC is considered to be “strategic”, since it represents 8% of world population and 5,7% of global GDP.?
In spite of its importance in terms of Latin America’s integration, it is deeply affected by the polarisation seen in the region. With regard to this, one of the most controversial issues around the summit has been the attendance list. This might not be any news in the region, if you remember last year’s Summit of the Americas.?
Among the leaders who have confirmed their participation, the most significant one is Brazil’s? Lula da Silva . Despite having huge problems at home- especially after the bolsonarists riots that threatened its democracy- the third-term president decided to assist. Moreover, it is expected that it will have a bilateral meeting with Alberto Fernandez. This way, Brazil is reincorporating to the organisation after Bolsonaro suspended its participation in early 2020.?
One of the most contentious issues has been the participation of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, which has caused huge criticism by Argentina's opposition parties. In spite of having confirmed his assistance in advance, he issued a last-minute release stating that he will not attend the summit, blaming “neo-fascist right groups” for having a plan to carry out “aggressive action” against him. Nonetheless, Venezuela is sending a delegation to the summit.???
A controversial leader who is attending the summit is Cuban president Miguel Diaz Canel, who has announced his participation. Similarly to Maduro’s case, his participation is also likely to cause discontentment on regional right-wing leaders and Argentina’s opposition.??
Ecuador’s Guillermo Lasso has stated that he will not attend, because of diplomatic tensions. AMLO is also skipping it, allegedly due to the tense relation he has with president Fernandez after the 2020 IDB election. Nevertheless, generally speaking, the Mexican president has hardly travelled abroad during his administration, and when he does, it is usually to the US.?
According to some experts , although this summit is good news for the region, one should not expect significant outcomes of it. In fact, it is unlikely that it will be able to address the serious issues that the region is going through, ranging from economic struggles to political crises.?
What should we be watching?