This Week, In Recruiting - Issue 95

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Open Kitchen:?Forecasting the Year Ahead in Recruitment: Part 2

As we're into the second week of the year, I think this is the last week when it might still be permissible to make predictions on a year that is already well under way ??.

Last week's predictions post was Pt1 of 20, and handled 1-10. Today, we're going to conclude by doing Pt2, 11-20. I will again be trying to follow the same rules of specificity - the requirement for something to be a forecast is to quantify the degree of change and then bind that forecast by when you think it will be resolved. Otherwise all we'll be doing is making an observation about a trend, or worse, moralising about something you want to see happen rather than describing what is or predicting what is to be.

As a reminder, here is the full list:

Without further ado, lets get on with the forecast!

11. Mass Acquisition of Talent Intelligence Platforms by ATS's

I've been extremely bullish about this category of recruitment tech ever since I had it explained to me a couple years ago. The value is obvious, the benefits go to all the stakeholders in process and implementation costs are low, especially since pandemic converted every candidates first stage interviews from an in-person to video conference experience.

The idea is pretty straight forward: record and transcribe the interview, use AI to analyse the metadata - speaking time, frequency of interrupts, sentiment of participants - then bench against company average and even market average. The talent intelligence provided afterward to candidates, recruiters, hiring managers and C-level can be used for training needs analysis, interview de-biasing, increased due diligence on marginal candidates and so on.

The leading players in this space - BrightHire, Metaview, Equitas, Screenloop - are all young organisations at Seed to Series B stage - ripe enough for ATS's to come knocking this year. I expect multiple exits in 2023 as ATS's make buy or build decisions and make sure they have this functionality available for their customers going into 2024.

12. Conversational Interface takes over ATS (UI revolution)

ChatGPT has introduced the conversational interface to millions of new users - and it's already changing our expectations of what good looks like in terms of UI design. Our existing experience of software - especially enterprise grade ATS / HRIS - is a complex, informationally dense, multi-featured dashboard which assaults the senses and requires time and training to get used to. Just look at the certifications ATS's like to hand out to 'super users', as if it's a good thing that people need to be trained to use the product.

ChatGPT changes the game because all you really have, all your really should need, is an input box and display window, and we're not going to tolerate informational density for too much longer. I forecast that ATS's will layer on a conversational interface on top of existing software and build a middle layer to connect the two. It's going to be a smartphone like revolution - once somebody does, everybody going to do it, and the old interface will be gone. How to specific on this? At least 2 of the leading players in Gartners Magic Quandrant in 2022 will radically shift their default interface to conversational by end of the 2023

13. Spam Tsunami from GAI Leading to Collapse of OR / CTR

According to MailChimp, the all industry average Open Rate or 'OR' for outreach email is 22.71%, CTR being 2.91%. The ability of ChatGPT to generate email copy which follows the recommendations we know work in getting opens and clicks means that the overall level of message quality should initially go up, with the rather significant caveat that once we have all up levelled with AI enhanced messaging, the receivers will become inured to it, overwhelmed by the inevitable increase in seemingly personalised, seemingly well researched outreach and then start to ignore all messaging as trust becomes eroded.

So I see the OR / CTR peak at around Q2 2023 - maybe getting up to 35% OR and then collapse as people get inundated and cease paying attention at all from unknown senders. Do you remember the last time you answered a call from an unknown number? We're going to end up the same place with unknown sender by the close of 2023. 'Collapse' can be described as a decline of OR from X to Y, which I think will occur from the last 6 months on the year onward, so I think the last 6 months all industry avg OR will be <15% - and stay there as the new normal.

PS: don't ask me what to do about this - I don't know - but I suspect pre-building audiences that trust your email is going to be what divides winners from losers in the post ChatGPT world. Start a newsletter in other words, right now.

14. Pay Transparency Splits Along Political State Lines in the US

By the time you read this, 1 in 5 US citizens will be living in a state where pay transparency of some type has become law. Whilst the number of jurisdictions are currently small, the leadership of these pioneering states will encourage other states of like mind to follow. Conversely, those of unlike mind, will resist, leading to another visceral manifestation of the modern kulturkampf currently roiling US - pay transparency laws splits along Dem / Rep State lines.

The impact on employer branding is likely to be significant; We know that publishing salaries on advertised jobs increases application rate, so we can states which have some sort of mandate should see an uptick in candidates wanting to work at their organisations. In time, pay transparency or lack thereof, will become a signifier of political allegiance and a significant component of the type of company culture that can be expected at those firms. I don't know enough about US politics to say much more, other than I think these two maps will look the same by 2024.

15. Record Business Formation, Led by AI Enabled Solopreneurs

It's cliché to say that it has never been easier to set up and build a viable business. It's also a cliché that happens to be true in historical context. Successive waves of technological innovation over the past 20 years have served to reduce the capitalisation required for entrepreneurs to set up a new venture and have a fighting chance of success. Our own industry might be the best example - imagine how hard it would be to set up a recruiting business in the pre-Internet era - no web, no LinkedIn, no brand, no way of candidate acquisition - no real chance of success. Yet in 2023, any one of us could set up a recruiting business today and in 24 hours be in and amongst much more established brands, trading on equal basis. Economic uncertainty, the call to return to the office and the breakthrough of Generative AI will encourage many more people to give entrepreneurship a shot this year.

Look at the example of Ammaar Reshi - product guy for a startup in San Francisco, who became a children's book author by experimenting with ChatGPT + Mid Journey, going from idea to revenue in 7 days. His fully illustrated, hard copy published book is now available at an Amazon store near you. Ammaar conducted this experiment as an illustration of what could be done by a solopreneur - I suspect many more will follow the example.

So as for prediction? UK Companies House provides quarterly updates on new business registrations, so we can use that as a marker. My forecast is the number of new businesses registered in 2023 will be a record high, a significant percentage of them being vehicles to accept revenue from GAI augmented solopreneurship.

16. Tech Talent Disperses But Does NOT Lead to Salary Deflation

Tech lay offs will continue in 2023 as hyper growth globalising companies rationalise for the new era of hostile de-globalisation, more risk averse financing atmosphere and reduced business and consumer confidence. In-demand tech talent will disperse from GAFAM + (wannabe GAFAMs), but I suspect that the any employer hopes for getting bargains are going to be disappointed. Remuneration will remain a top priority for the highly skilled, in-demand and greater awareness now of the volatility of the equity component of total compensation means that guaranteed income will escalate up the priority ladder: salary deflation will not occur in the tech sector in 2023

The fact remains though, the equivalent jobs for the privileged GAFAM engineering elite are going to be scarcer to come by. Few companies are going to be able to offer the same compensation, culture, scope of project than the likes of Google, Amazon, Meta et al, and I suspect many engineers will set off on their own rather than join smaller companies for lesser work, regardless of the comp. We might - hopefully will - see an explosion of new tech startup in 2023

17. Employment in Food Retail Permanently Contracts

I read with some surprise that the return to physical retail was going to be a thing in 2023. I can't see it, in large part because the people needed to staff the retail operations are either no longer available (seasonal workers, students, new immigrants) or would prefer to do other types of work for equivalent pay but better conditions (flexible working)

This will especially be felt in food retail, where restaurant chains are investing heavily in automation as a hedge against the lack of staff. As consumers, we have likely already experienced at least some elements of the new food experience -the QR coded self order, automated food prep, robot cheffing, robot waitering and QR coded self check out. Won't be long before we experience the entire thing in one place. We'll complain that its not the same, but the fact is cost of employment + cost of energy is going to put a lot of restaurants out of business, unless they hike up prices to cover the charges or go with the robots. Either way, total employment in food retail going to permanently contract, so the prediction is no return to previous levels of employment, and forever downward trend YoY from now.

18. Professional Services Become Tech Consultancies

Two drivers are going to convert professional services and management consultancies into full on tech consultancies - customer priorities to digitise and automate their businesses and intrusion of those same technologies into their own value proposition. You can't be a McKinsey associate and not recognise both the value-to-the-customer and the threat to your own business model that the breakthrough of GAI is going to have.

Consultancies will be smart enough to embrace the change rather than gate keep it and become the lubricants for cultural change which moves every business into become a digital and AI-enabled one. There will be a competition between all the big players as to who will own the conversation and hence own the space. Expect a flurry of coinage as concepts get reheated, rebranded and redistributed. How to specific with this forecast? I'll take my shot and say tech enablement will become a larger slice of the work for PS than any other in 2023 in revenue terms.

19. US Tech Companies Shift Jobs to LATAM

Tech salaries failing to deflate in the US, despite Big Tech Winter, is going to lead to job flight from the US, as employers find other people to fill essential jobs that local workers won't do. The shift of tech work to LATAM will accelerate, as employers shifting to remote realise that chronology is more important than geography

The skilled engineers in Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Brazil will benefit as they secure remote engineering jobs with US firms paying above local market rate; employers will get their jobs filled at reduced time-to-hire, at much lower cost-per-hire and, it seems, at no loss of quality of output. That remote will lead to offshoring is inevitable - smart employers will be the ones which lean into this future and build location independent businesses. This will become political at a national level, as we discussed in Part 1 last week, 2023 will also see the first governments legislate against job flight. As for forecast, I'm going to say the absolute number of LATAM employees of US companies will grow by 200% by end of this year.

20. Recruiting Brainfood Hits 50K Subs, TWIR Hits 35K Subs

We're finally here! It's the end of the forecast post and I got to say, it's quite an exhausting thing to write all that. Might need to get some ChatGPT help in future ??. That said, I reckon despite the expected deluge of spam we're going to see in 2023, that both This Week, In Recruiting and Recruiting Brainfood newsletters will grow at pace in 2023.

RBF is at 28,446 as of today so to hit 50,000 would require a step change increase in growth rate, but I notice a number of growth tools on Substack which have yet to be utilised, as well as a better plan to inform the rest of the audience that different channels exist.

TWIR is on 27, 497 and I fully expect it to overtake RBF in the next few weeks, as it currently has over double the growth rate. Not sure why this is - could be the community led focus, or the Open Kitchen essay, or more likely it simply the higher visibility you get by being on LinkedIn. Either way, 35K is a lower target and we're getting there at a faster rate, so this is more certain to happen ??

Both are going to succeed because they are first and foremost opt-in newsletters. In a world where information overload is about to ratchet up yet another level, I believe users will increasingly retreat into spaces and channels where they have decided to be, to receive the information they have decided to receive, and increasingly ignore the rest. For those who didn't know it before, 2023 is going to be year when we all begin to understand the value of community and audience. For those who haven't yet started building an audience, I strongly encourage you to do so.

OK, that's it for forecasting. Back to normal service next week. Hope you enjoyed reading this series as much as I did putting it together. Let me know in comments below, which of 11-20 you most agreed with, and which ones caused you to do a spit take ??

Now out of the kitchen, onto the lounge ??

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What's in the News?

LinkedIn Scheduled Posts

Have you tried this innovation yet? I noticed a week ago and thought that yes, this is indeed quite new. Seems like a fairly simple operation - write the post, click on the clock face to trigger a calendar / date modal and hit schedule rather than publish. I haven't used it yet but I think I'm going to, especially if I end up traveling in 2023. You're still going to have to engage with commentators so real time will always be best but this seems like an unequivocally good move. Thoughts?

FTC mulls ban Non Competes

Recruiters will be very used to 'non-compete' - standard thing in a recruiter contract - or at least was the case back in my day. In the US, they have been standard across as many as 1 in 4 employment contracts, a massive restraint of trade for a large percentage of the population. A federal ban on the clauses will have a huge impact on labour liquidity, critically important at a time when jobs still are not being filled. Wall Street Journal with the news.

Remote Work Peaked?

LinkedIn is as good a barometer as any on the 'remote revolution'. Whilst job seekers maintain remote working has a priority concern, it seems that the new jobs which are being created by employers are increasingly on-premise or at least majority on-premise. 7 months in the row that LinkedIn has recorded declined in remote job postings in the UK and Netherlands. What do you think? Are the folks we currently work from remote going to end up as an ever smaller cohort as new work moves back to the office? Have a read here

If you are a recruitment service provider or technology business and have any news to share,?comment below,?this is your application to get into next week's addition of This Week, In Recruiting. Make sure to @ mention me so that I see it

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What's On Offer?

What no offers? Come on recruitment vendors, this is a simple exchange - give the community something, and you get some free promo in this space. No brainer....

If you are a recruitment service provider or recruitment technology vendor have any exclusive offer for the community, comment below with your offer in order to be included in next week's edition of This Week, In Recruiting. Make sure to mention me so that I see it.

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What's Going On?

Big List of in-Person Recruiting / HR Events to Attend in 2023

Going to start promoting 'the Big List' every week folks - these are IN PERSON events, which recruiters and HR folks might be interested in attending. If you are hosting an event and want it included, just add your details to the last row in the spreadsheet and I will merge it in DD-MM-YYYY date order. Lets get back on this folks ??

Understanding Your Barriers to Candidate Entry in Volume Recruitment , Wed 11 Jan, 12pm

High volume recruitment series continues with our friends at Crooton!?Marcell Edwards , Global Talent Acquisition (Adidas), Jemma Jones , Partnerships Manager (Crooton) and I will talk about the challenges of hiring, even when you have a globally renowned brand such as adidas. Will be of interest to anyone who is highly at scale and wants to reduxe the friction from discovery to candidate start. Register?here

Writing Winning Recruitment Messages with Kasia Tang , Thu 12th Jan, 5pm CET

Forget ChatGPT - AI generated messages will swiftly become generic - so being able to craft human written copy in recruitment messages will become an even more important part a recruiters job. Have you ever done any training on this? Do you know which techniques have been proven to work? The awesome Kasia Tang is going to show us a few techniques to uplevel your messaging game. Part of the ongoing charity fundraiser for our friends under fire in Ukraine, hosted by the even more awesome Anna Golovchenko . Register here

Hiring for Potential: Getting Real Value from Reference Checking , Thurs 19th Jan, 1pm GMT / 2pm CET

Do you really get the value you should from reference checks? I suspect most of don't, mainly because we are thinking about them in a purely compliance driven manner, and not as a talent intelligence opportunity to learn about a future hire you're about to make. What is the 'readme' for the candidate, who do they want to be treated, what is the best form of communication, how do we escalate an issue? All management and performance challenges employers could mitigate by collecting the information ahead of time. With my buddy?Roy Baladi , Founder (Jobs For Humanity),?Emira Blomberg , Chief Strategy Officer (Refapp) and?David N?sstr?m , Founder (Refapp). Register?here

How to Turbocharge your Employer Branding with Data, ?Thur 26 Jan, 2.30pm GMT

These are two of the smartest people in the business when it comes to EB (don't mean Danny H and I obvs), so I am excited to be co-hosting this webinar on companies can use data to make better decisions on Employer Branding. We're with?Nick Thompson , Global Talent Marketing & Employer Branding Manager (IBM),?Sarah Sturgess , Agency Director (SMRS) -?Danny Hodgson , Founder (Foresight) and I moderating the chat. Register?here

LinkedIn Automation with CODE Agency , Feb 28th, 4pm CET

This is a super interesting blurb: "Vince Szymczak, Senior Advisor at The Source CODΞ Agency, met with 20+ different LinkedIn Automation tech providers at the end of 2022" to better understand the options available for recruiters and sales people who want to super charge their outbound activity. Should be an interesting one to attend, courtesy of our friend Balazs Paroczay . Register here

Recruiters Unite , Thurs 9th March, Lagoon Beach Hotel, Cape Town

Well one thing I know I will doing next year will be traveling to South Africa and visiting one of my favourite cities, to connect with one of my favourite communities. Sharing the stage with good friends?Vanessa Raath , Founder (Talent Hunter) and?Jonnathan Koch , Cofounder (Talent Genie) Thank you to?Samantha-Leigh Hayward ?for the invitation - and friends who want to attend, super early bird tickets are now?here .

If you have an event, webinar or podcast going on next week and want it featured on next week's newsletter,?comment below?with the link and event details. Don't forget to @ mention me so that I see it

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Whose Story?

Martin Dangerfield , CEO, Immersive

One of the great things about the Brainfood Tribune is getting to know people that you already know but didn't know as well as you'd wished. Martin is a well known figure, particularly in UK recruiting circles, but his story here will surprise many of you. Thank you Martin, for sharing it with us.

If you have a story to tell and feel like an exercise in introspection will be useful to you, comment below and volunteer to be the next member of the community to join the Brainfood Tribune

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Who's Hiring & Who's Available?

We are up to 95 available and ready-to-interview candidates on the Brainfood Talent Community. If you're hiring for recruiters or HR staff, apply for a free company account and get access here , using this code 'BTCFREE' for 100% usage. If you're a recruiter or HR person looking for work, you can apply?here , and increase your exposure to employers vetted by me!

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Who's Moving?

Geraldine Butler-Wright , joins StreamElements as Chief People & Culture Officer, having previously lead the people functions of organisations as diverse as Healthily, Yoyo Wallet, Imperial College London, PayPal an US Embassy in London. Some incredible experience to offer to a company in one of hottest markets right now - content creation and live streaming.

Akbar Karenga , joins LiSA as People and Talent Director. Excited for this move, especially as social shopping and m-commerce is set to take off in a massive way, following the huge success of livestreaming commerce in Asia. Couldn't think of a better guy to head of the TA for a business in this space. Congrats Akbar, let me know how you get on!

John Hardy , joins Join Talent as Managing Director, Enterprise Accounts?having previously lead TA functions at Modulr, Blenheim Chalcot, Barclays and Barclaycard. John will be working with an ever expanding client base to deliver excellence in TA Delivery, thought leadership and strategic support.

And finally, huge number of promotions to celebrate - Jenna Filipkowski goes up to People Science Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Sabina Eriksen promoted to Global People Acquisition Business Partner at LMS365, Karin Bergstr?m , goes up to VP at Joblyon, Jennifer Vaughan promoted to SVP at Radancy, Katie-Mai Quinn , who is promoted to Strategy and Operations Partner at Google, Harold Mellor goes up to Global Recruitment Marketing Lead at Novartis and Jillian Trubee who goes up to Principal Strategic Partnerships at Remote - congratulations on the career upgrade!

If you have made a senior exec appointment to your business,?and feel the wider community needs to know about it,?comment below?with the details and see it featured in next weeks issue.?Don't forget to @ mention me in it so that I see it

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What Are You Doing?

Pedro Moura , Chief Marketing Officer at Landing.jobs, is running Global Tech Talent Trends 2023 survey. If you have seen any of the reports that LJ produce, you will know that your contribution will not be wasted. Important to get as many recruiters to complete this as we can, the greater the sample size, the greater the value we can all share. Give it a shot here folks.

Justin Vajko , CEO of Dialog Employer Branding, is conducting a survey on a new product offering. This will be your chance to give direct update on a provider before they actually offer the service, great opportunity to tailor it to what you ideally want - give it a go here

Jim Stroud , most recently the VP of Marketing at Proactive Talent is bring back one of his signature and unique contributions to the industry - the Recruiting Life Comics! Check out the comic strip on the Featured section of Jim's LinkedIn profile and make storyline suggestions which you feel

If you are doing something new,?comment below?with what it is and share a link to where you want people to go. Don't forget to @ mention me in it so that I see it

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End Notes

Busy starts today I think - lots of meetings to do, especially tomorrow when I'm out all day, then we're onto the first live events and webinars of the year on Wednesday and Thursday. Hope you've all had the rest you deserved and ready for the year ahead.

Have a great week everybody

Hung

Hung Lee is the curator of?Recruiting Brainfood , and now This Week In Recruiting. Subscribe to both if you are into recruiting or HR or just interested in world of work.