This Week, In Recruiting - Issue 71

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Open Kitchen:?How To Know What Is True

I have been thinking about how we know something to be true.

This has been bugging me since I was contradicted last month by the community on the state of the economy, which I had confidently claimed was going down the drain. My not-particularly-rigourously-tested argument had rested on three assumptions:

Firstly, that businesses with global ambition are now massively overvalued as they were priced in an era of benevolent globalisation, when we clearly now entering into an era of hostile de-globalisation, the conditions of which redraw the borders of total addressable markets for all businesses to at best regional blocs and at worst national economies, walled off from each other for sovereignty and security reasons. Much smaller markets = much smaller valuations.

Secondly, early reports of tech lay offs and hiring freezes seemed to validate this claim. VC's losing confidence in the ability of their investments to reach the type of global scale they had initially envisaged and were now either pulling back investment or signalling to founders that future investment would be much more constrained. Big tech had already frozen hiring and now all those companies which want to become big tech were doing so too.

Finally, my management of a small but previously busy recruitment job board - The Brainfood Jobs Job Board - gave me a view as to how confident employers were of continued growth. Hiring recruiters is pretty good sign that an employer plans to grow and from May onward, new job listings started declining week-on-week, dropping from an average 30-40 live jobs to a mere 4 at the end of June.

[Image: Brainfood Jobs Job Board]

These factors compounded into the core idea that the economy was going to down the drain, and it was only a matter a time before we all felt it. However, I was conscious of my own distance from the operating work of a recruiter and so I thought I would try one more tool I had in the box - asking the recruiter community of their current and direct experience. Not the stuff they had been reading (as I have been doing that), nor the secondary impacts they had been observing (as I had been observing that), but the stuff that they were directly experiencing as operational recruiters, something which I was no longer doing. So I set up a LinkedIn poll and asked the question - What is Your Hiring Posture, RIGHT NOW.

The contradiction couldn't be clearer. Out of 1679 votes, fully 73% were continuing to hire for growth, a decisive rejection of my thesis!

Now there could be a lag factor. The work I do today involves a great deal of 'forward scouting' and it is part of the job to stay on top of things so that busier people don't have to. If I perform my task to standard, then I should be seeing things a little earlier that most. In order to continue to test this, I plan to repeat exactly the same poll tomorrow and thereafter on a monthly cadence to see whether there are any changes to sentiment. If the market catches up to claim, then we should see it in the sentiment change.

However, the point of this post is not to commentate about the true state of the market, but rather on how we know things to be true. What is the process of 'coming to a conclusion'? How do we improve the chances that our theories are accurate descriptions of reality? Why do we end up making potential mistakes and how we do mitigate these in future? And finally, is there and should there be a 'trust hierarchy' on the information we read vs information we directly experience?

Let's start by how I potentially got this wrong.

1. Over Exposure to Media

Part of the job is to consume vast amounts of media. This may also be called a 'hazard of the job'. That is because the media is not the reality, but reports on reality - reports that for practical reasons are never complete, for political reasons never fully in context, and for commercial reasons never fully balanced. It is important to remember that the media often focuses on negative stories, because we know negative stories are more engaging for the audience and therefore 'perform' better against the KPI's that publishers care most about - Open Rate, Click Through Rate, Viewing Time. This incentive to focus on the negative can create false impression of what is really happening. So whilst it is true that Big Tech has frozen hiring, and that there have been lay offs from a number of high profile, VC backed tech companies, we hear less about those organisations that are still significantly expanding and nothing at all on those who are just going about their plans, hiring-as-usual, business-as-usual.

Here, my overexposure to media, increases the risk of skewed reality. That doesn't mean that the assumption is incorrect, only that any conclusions derived from it needs to be cautious and caveated.

2. Sample Bias

Media is not the only place where there is skewed realities. It also exists in group intelligence. Recruiting Brainfood is by intent and design agnostic by industry, sector and geography. However, by outcome, it remains the case that it is predominantly made of recruiters who work in tech, who mainly hire for tech and do so mainly for employers located in English language friendly metropolitan centres - precisely the places where VC's park their cash. The data from the What Do Recruiters Want? survey tells its own demographic story. Over 50% of the recruiters I contacted worked in tech, over 50% of the recruiters hired mainly for tech.

[Image: What Do Recruiters Want? 2021 Survey]

I do not particularly know why this is the case (indeed make no apology for it - I love this space!) - but it is clear from the data that my primary sources of group intelligence is skewed toward the VC backed tech sector. Consequently, if this overly inflated sector were to deflate in any way, it would give the impression of a phenomena that is incorrectly sized when contextualised to the wider economy. Now tech is critically important for many reasons, but as a sector actually employs a relatively small amount of the total workforce. The poll I conducted - because it was open on the network - is likely to be a more sector diverse than my usual networks of information - and hence producing the compelling contradiction that it did.

3. 2 Million Recruiters In The World

There is also a problem of overall sample size. This initially sounds absurd given that my network of recruiters is not small (30,000 or so, across all channels, at a guess?) but in global terms, it is insignificant compared to the estimated two million professional recruiters in the world today. Even if we took a maximalist approach to my total addressed audience and you took the 26,000 subscribers to Recruiting Brainfood + the 21,000 subscribers to This Week, In Recruiting - treated each of these as unique (which they are not, though I have no idea of the ratio) the total figure would still represent no more than 2.35% of the whole market - hardly enough to commentate authoritatively on the state of the market!

Consequently, even if we could trust the findings from surveys, reports, observed behaviour and so on from this group, we could only really be confident on what is occurring within a sample which is not representative of the whole.

So How Then Do We Know What is True?

Short answer may be that we can't, but we can increase our chances of holding theories which bear greater fidelity to reality. I'm no expert so would welcome further commentary on this topic from any readers here, but I'll list some ideas which I think will help.

4. Explore Different Starting Points for Your Claims

Path dependency is a concept in economics and the social sciences, referring to processes where past events or decisions constrain later events or decisions. Hence, the first decision or assumption you make, will determine all subsequent decisions and assumptions you make, even constraining the decisions and assumptions it might be possible for you to make. My initial assumption was that the economy was going tank and started the validation process from there. A way to try and improve the chances of being right is to start with the opposite assumption and try and validate that. These days, I believe this is now more popularly known as 'working from first principles'.

[Image: Scielo: The Effects of Path Dependency]

I have yet to run any tests on this first assumption but I'm going to and will update you to let know what I discover, assuming that I can maintain honesty in doing so ;-)

5. Identify the Nature of the Validations

We have already talked about the skewed realities we get from media or more precisely, any source of secondary data. Our process of validation usually follows the line of 'does what I read, comport with my own direct experience?' If so, we cognitively box it off, stop thinking about it and satisfy ourselves that this is true. Where what we read does not comport with our direct experience, we might connect with others and share experiences in order to establish consensus. If we do find agreement that we have all experienced the same thing and can draw the same conclusions, we will be strongly inclined to accept the conclusions as true and cognitively box it off as 'done', rejecting the information we read. Where our direct experience does not comport with what we are told or have read, and also cannot find consensus, then we find ourselves in an anxious liminal period where do not know what to think. This is deeply uncomfortable and we will seek to escape by either finding validation through different secondary material which better comports to our experience, or different cohorts who might better agree with our conclusions.

Thus conspiracy theories and tribalism both find eager audience in the era of 'narrative fragmentation' - where consensus is difficult to build because of the sheer volume of alternative interpretations available to everyone who has access to the Internet.

I don't know a way out of this, other than it is probably a good idea to understand the nature of how we validate - what we read vs what we experience vs group consensus, and be mindful how we much relative weight are place on each of these techniques when constructing our argument.

6. Contextualise What We Do vs What We Don't Know

Once a conclusion has been settled, we can take an additional step before we stop thinking about it. Take what we now know, and contextualise it against all the things that we do not know. The mental practice of overtly recognising the existence of 'known unknowns' helps us understand that there is more to understand, keeping us open for more information to enter our thinking and improving our chances of updating our beliefs should that information encourage us to do so.

In simple language, this is about 'keeping an open mind'. However, that somewhat outdated phrase presents open mindedness as a value whereas I think we are lacking a technique - how to achieve open mindedness when we would all probably like to already describe ourselves as open minded. The method is to recognise that what we know is nested in a much wider reality of what we do not know

7. Continually Test Even When You Do Know

Finally, I would suggest that we insist on continual testing of what we think know. It is a good thing to debunk our own theories, even if it means spending extra energy to do so. It means that you will not be wasting time and resources building strategy against false ideas, ultimately reducing your risk of error. We may need to continually search for more ways to test our theories, indeed, put energy into creating those opportunities for testing. At risk of using my own case as an example, the network built here right on LinkedIn, provided me with a final test on my assumptions, one which I am very glad to have taken. In fact, we need to habitually work to refute our own claims, in order to temper them in the crucible of critique.

Conclusion

So, what is the truth? Are we in a recession? Is the market growing? The answer, as with many things, is complicated. It is important to look at both anecdata and anecdota when trying to understand what is happening in the world and in the economy. However, it is also important to remember that data can be interpreted in different ways, and that sometimes the stories we hear from people we know can be just as important as the numbers.

In the end, we may not be able to ever say something is true, but instead position ourselves on a spectrum of confidence that something might be true. This is at root - the scientific method - to seek truth from facts.

On a final note, it would be entirely the wrong outcome to be paralysed into inactivity due to our diligence in exposing the imperfections of our conjectures. That we cannot know for sure does not mean that we should not take a guess. We have to act under conditions of uncertainty; we only need the humility to be receptive to new information and course correct when we have to good fortune to receive it.

Anyways, that's what I've been thinking about. Heavy sh1t. Out of the kitchen, onto the lounge ??

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What's in the News?

Bullhorn acquires SourceBreaker

Automated search provider SourceBreaker exits to the biggest player in the agency software market as Bullhorn continue its mission to increase the productivity of agency recruiters. Logical deal, logical exit - read about it here

Automated Screening provider Veremark raise $8.5 million

Missed this lot at Recfest, but great to see them represent here and continue to build out their service offering with this raise. Congratulations in particular to CEO Daniel Callaghan, running an international business all the way from Singapore. Read about the raise here

ChartHop release Compensation Reviews

Compensation tech is a hot category right now and great to see more providers enter the space. Natural move for Organisation Intelligence platform ChartHop - new service offering comp comparison, on top of their core organisation visualisation software. Have a read here

If you are a recruitment service provider or technology business and have any news to share,?comment below,?this is your application to get into next week's addition of This Week, In Recruiting. Make sure to @ mention me so that I see it

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What's On Offer?

Yep, Compensation Tech is a hot category. Our buddies at compensation tech leaders - Figures - are offering FREE ACCESS for UK + EU + US employers till October 2022 if you click to claim here!

If you've been following any of the brainfood channels you will know that I'm hugely bullish on compensation tech as a category - in the era of hyper competition for in-demand talent, we need to know whether our comp is competitive! Figures have an outstanding payroll data set aggregated from thousands of employers. Find out where you stand and sign up here.

PS. DE ???? + FR ???? employers are excluded from this offer - there is a 20% discount instead. Sorry guys ??.

If you are a recruitment service provider or recruitment technology vendor have any exclusive offer for the community, comment below with your offer in order to be included in next week's edition of This Week, In Recruiting. Make sure to @ mention me so that I see it.

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What's Going On?

Programmatic Job Advertising Made Simple, Tues 26 July, 2pm BST

We are back folks! By popular demand, Robin Stander, VP of Sales (Appcast) and I are going to go through the programmatic job advertising how-to. Recent poll ran on my LinkedIn account suggested that nearly 50% of recruiters still did not even know what programmatic is never mind how it can revolutionise your candidate acquisition strategy. We're going to go through it, step by step, as well share insight from millions of job ads posted on how to get more of the relevant candidates to apply. Register here

Brainfood Live On Air - Ep165 - How To Be Influential On Video, Fri 29th July, 2pm BST / 3pm CEST

Been thinking about this one for a long time. As a person whose 'in-person game' was a strength, what happens when we are simply doing far less in-person work? Do the influencing skills transfer to the video medium or do we need to learn new skills to continue to be effective in the remote first world? Lets talk about it - we're with Somer Hackley, Author (Demystifying Exec Search), Mike Basnett Sandiford, Head of Partnerships (Horsefly), Mark Lundgren, Recruiter (Videre) and Anton Boner, Commercial Director (Screenloop) - register here

Founders Focus - Ep32 - Up close and personal with Mehul Bhatt, CEO of FloCareer, Weds 3rd August, 10am EDT / 3pm BST

We are back with another episode of the popular Founders' Focus series, the show where we get up close and personal with the people changing the way in which we work today. This week we are with Mehul Bhatt, whose career in tech has led him to build perhaps the world's first 'interview-as-a-service' platform. What leadership and entrepreneurial lessons has Mehul learnt in his career in business? Join us and find out on Weds 3rd August. Register here

If you have an event, webinar or podcast going on next week and want it featured on next week's newsletter,?comment below?with the link and event details. Don't forget to @ mention me so that I see it

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Who's Hiring?

Talent Acquisition Specialist, Kinsta, London, UK

International Talent Acquisition Specialist, Everlight Radiology, Remote EU

Senior Manager, Talent Acquisition and Mobility, RMIT University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Technology Recruiter (Polish Focus), Join Talent, Remote EU

Tech Talent Partner(In-House, Germany), Join Talent, Remote EU

Employer Branding Lead, Kinsta, Remote USA

Business Development Lead, North America, Join Talent, Remote USA

Tech Talent Partner(In-House) Remote, Join Talent, Remote UK

Talent Search Partner (Fully Remote InHouse), Join Talent, Remote UK

Talent Partner -South Africa, KANDIDATE, Remote Global

EMEA Employee Relations Director, JLL, London, UK

Employee Relations Manager, JLL, Berlin, Germany

People Experience Partner Nordics, JLL, Helsinki, Finland

HR People Experience Partner, JLL, Paris, France

HR People Experience Lead, Property & Asset Mgmt, JLL, London, UK

Senior HR Service Consultant, JLL, Milan, Italy

Senior HR Operations Specialist, JLL, Madrid, Spain

Talent Acquisition Advisor, JLL, London, UK

Early Careers - Senior Recruitment Advisor, JLL, London, UK

Talent Acquisition Partner, JLL, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Head of People Experience, Markets & Cap Markets, JLL, K?ln, Germany

HR Service Consultant, JLL, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Recruiter Capital Markets Transaction, JLL, Paris, France

HR Business Partner in Teilzeit, JLL, Berlin, Germany

Payroll Specialist, JLL, Norwich, UK

Junior HR Service Consultant, JLL, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Principal Consultant (Talent Recruiter), Advance Thinking, Melbourne, Australia

Talent Acquisition Coordinator - On site, Cielo Talent, Mitcham, UK

Social Media Marketing Specialist, Cielo Talent, Remote UK

Talent Management Director, Cielo Talent, Remote EU

Partner, Life Sciences - SE Asia, Horton International, Remote APAC

Principal Consultant, Logistics - SE Asia, Horton International, Remote APAC

If you want to get your job featured, post jobs on the Brainfood Jobs Job Board here

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Who's Moving?

Jill Leonard joins HelloFresh as Global Senior Director, Talent Acquisition, after leading the TA functions at King, fellow food e-tailer Ocado Group, publisher Wiley and travel company Thomas Cook Group. Cross industry experience at senior level must provide some unique insights on universal principles which work across the board. A Brainfood Live in future, I think.

Martyn Wright joins Intel Corporation as Recruitment Director, having spent TA leadership roles with the likes of EY, CapGemini, Wipro and most recently, 3rd party side with Cielo Talent. Some folks just have a blinging CV don't they ???

Adam Blacker joins Deloitte as Head of Professional Resourcing, after leading Exec hiring at Barclays, before then at BAe Systems, Vodafone and Balfour Beatty. Really do need to get a couple of these leaders on a panel together eh?

Isabella Cross joins zeroheight as Senior Talent Partner, after leading the TA functions at Raylo and Kin + Carta, having moved over from agency side via our buddies at Talentful.

Harry Reeves joins Miro as Recruitment Team Lead, Engineering after spending time with building tech and product teams at Wise, Meta and via Elements, Spotify. What a great career trajectory this is - RPO's are maybe the best way in for agency-to-inhouse transitioners. Another Brainfood Live maybe?

Vira Boiko goes up to Senior Talent Acquisition Partner at Zalando, Bastian Müller goes up to Interim Global Head of Talent Acquisition (PDT) at OLX Group, Andrew Joynt promoted to Director Talent Acquisition at Olo, and finally Marta Glinka goes up to Recruitment Team Lead at Capco - congratulations all!

If you have made a senior exec appointment to your business,?and feel the wider community needs to know about it,?comment below?with the details and see it featured in next weeks issue.?Don't forget to @ mention me in it so that I see it

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What Are You Doing?

My buddy and all-round industry good guy, Lars Schmidt is launching Amplify Academy, the leadership accelerator for HRD's, CHRO's and CPO's. Been hearing some rave reviews on the learning accrued by being part of this network - hear from the man himself in the below explainer video ??

Pricing looks super competitive - $1,000 per annum or $120 per month - comfortably within most people's L&D budgets. Check it out here folks!

If you are doing something new,?comment below?with what it is and share a link to where you want people to go. Don't forget to @ mention me in it so that I see it

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End Notes

Bit late today with this, given the massive Open Kitchen essay just completed there. I was thinking it might have been better to split that monster into two, but in the end powered through to complete it.

Going to update soon on a few more channels I have been experimenting with - this period and most of the month of August will be spent on experimentation, so I hope we will have some exciting news to share with you all soon

Cheers

Hung

Hung Lee is the curator of?Recruiting Brainfood, and now This Week In Recruiting. Subscribe to both if you are into recruiting or HR or just interested in world of work.