This Week, In Recruiting - Issue 200

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Open Kitchen: Forecasting Recruitment In 2025 (Part Three)

We're onto Part Three of our four part series outlining my predictions for Recruiting in 2025.

You can read Part's One and Two here and here. Part Three will cover forecasts 11-15 (Decentralisation of TA, Stabilisation of Candidate Resentment, Chief Automation Officer becomes the new Chief Diversity Officer, Atlantic Divergence on DEIB and UK becomes offshoring option for US). These are my explanations to why I predicted what I did, written as much to help me improve my thinking on these claims, as well as provide fuel for critics to come at me (welcome all ??!)

As usual, I will present a screen cap of what the 20 are in full so you have a reference a view at-a-glance.

With all that said, let's get on with it.

11. De-centralisation of Talent Acquisition - Percentage of Employers Where Hiring Managers Conduct Candidate Outreach Increases by 10%

Most of the content shared on Recruiting Brainfood newsletter ( ?? subscribe btw) and discussed by myself in Open Kitchen have generally been about 'Specialist Talent Acquisition', that is, where the vast majority of recruitment tasks are performed by specialist operating in a talent partner style relationship with the hiring managers. For the past 20 years this model has been considered best practice - a model to aspire to if you weren't already operating this way. The subsequent complication of the Talent Acquisition function over the past 10 years with the addition of further specialist roles - recruitment marketers, sourcers, data analysts, candidate experience experts, RecOps - was an advanced development and may in time prove to the ultimate form of the model in the pre-AI era.

Technology was the primary driver of this development. Web 2.0 exponentionally increasing the availability of candidate data, providing employers with the opportunity and pressure to mine it. Employers who stayed using the old model of passive HR admin or 'Personnel' placing job adverts and simply passing on ad response to hiring managers were outcompeted by those with these specialised, centralised Talent Acquisition structures who could actively find, attract and convert the highly skilled, in-demand.

Technology might bring us back full circle though.

I have a theory that as AI powered recruitment technology becomes more sophisticated, we might see a reversion to the old non-specialised model of talent acquisition, where the main recruiting work is performed by the people who actually need to do the hiring - the line managers.

Consider this: the main activities which specialised talent acquisition currently engages is are all areas of work which AI is most capable - interrogating systems for candidate data, writing compelling copy for job adverts, creating media assets for talent attraction, coordinating the logistics of the interview process. If technology progresses as we think it will, we will see less human time devoted to these activities and as such see the bulk of the remaining work returned to newly AI-enabled hiring managers.

We already know that hiring managers are superior candidate outreachers compared to talent acquisition specialists - candidates simply want to hear from the future boss and much prefer to do so. Hiring managers are also the ones who are best are reviewing candidate profiles - that we submit candidate profiles for hiring managers to review is proof of the case. And with AI being very close to handling the logistics, the feedback and information carrying, we can imagine a future where most of the essential recruitment work is done either by AI or by the line.

Not every employer will move toward this model but I think a fair few will.

Forecast: As a signifier of this trend, I am going to say that hiring manager direct outreach first contact to prospect candidate, AI-assisted or not, will increase by 10%. We can only measure this if we examine employers whose TA Strategies formally require the hiring manager to do so, so I am saying that we will see at 10% increase of instances where this is policy.

How do we know: LinkedIn survey now and then again in 12 months time.

2. Stabilisation of Candidate Resentment

I've been using Kevin Grossman's unusual but excellent KPI on candidate experience since I first came across earlier this year at ERE Talent Acquisition Summit in Anaheim. The 'Candidate Resentment' score is a number which tracks the percentage of candidates who have been so traumatised by bad CX that they would have nothing further to do that with business in any context, and would even go as far as recommending against that employer should they find out a friend is applying for a job there.

Needless to say, the Candidate Resentment has been tracking up for the past few years since the end of the ZIRP era crashed the global economy and increased economic insecurity for all by the richest asset holders. With Trump 2.0 starting today, we can expect significant escalation of trade friction, which is an obvious inflationary risk seeing that the United States is the world's largest importer.

In these circumstances, it might seem more obvious to say that candidate resentment would increase. After all, job search is not about to get any easier. However, I do believe that cynicism will take hold and job seeker resentment will be redirected toward the political class (one for the left leaning) or toward perceived internal or external enemies (the option for the right leaning). We've already seen plenty of evidence of this in 2024, with online agitation of the crowd leading to real world action on the streets. Remember that Trump is a much more natural online communicator than any of his predecessors - and he is a proven master of converting negative energy which he himself has often instigated into political gain.

So, Candidate Resentment toward putative employers will remain high but will stabilise rather than continue to rise, mainly because the economic stress will be re-channeled toward other targets. Lucky us!

Forecast: Candidate resentment does not rise or fall significantly but stays within 1% above or below the latest figures from the 2024 benchmark survey. Now I believe the data collection is usually one year previous, so we not be able to validate this forecast until end of 2026!

How do we know?: Candidate Experience Benchmark Report 2026

3. Chief Automation Officer becomes Chief Diversity Officer

The hype becomes real in 2025!

I confess I am not a neutral observer on this forecast, as I am going to try and amplify the idea that people in People teams should try and create this role and take it on. Take a look at this dummy job description created by Steph Smith 2 years ago - look at the key bullet points:

"identify repetitive, low-value tasks across the company that can be automated"

"bridges the gap between technology and employee workflows"

"train employees on how to use technology effectively"

Who else might be better qualified to do this as yet new role?

Speak to any consultant on Workforce Automation or trainer on how to use AI and they will all tell you same story; companies are very keen to get the training but struggle with implementation because the switching costs are currently too high for people who have accelerated business-as-usual objectives. You know yourself - the only people who have really managed to rebuild their processes with AI have been those who have been free from operational responsibilities.

Yet AI-enablement is a top priority for C-Suite. There are no greater enthusiasts for AI / Automation that the Chiefs - they can see the obvious productivity gains to be made by AI and are disappointed at the rate of change.

It may seem strange to argue that the new Chief Automation Officer should be coming from a function which would appear to have diametrically opposing purpose. There may be alignment on our capability to do this role, but isn't automation spiritually hostile to what the People departments are all about?? My answer to this is that we need to change our view as to what our purpose is. Rather than stay wedded to the idea of 'acquiring' more people ('talent'), our purpose needs to be remodelled toward delivering capacity / capability to the business on-demand. That may mean more humans to be acquired; more humans to be temporarily borrowed. It may mean no humans at all but a rebuilding of jobs within a business such at AI + human work better together. I think we have it within us and I think in 2025 we will see the hype train start on TA / HR being Chief Automation types.

Forecast: Chief Automation Officer becomes an actual role for an actual company, and a TA / HR professional will the first one doing it.

How do we know?: Scour LinkedIn

4. Transatlantic Divergence on DEIB

Trump 2.0 era begins today.

Donald Trump's victory over the 'deep state' will mean many things, amongst which will be an escalation of the Kulturkampf which has been on going in the United States for at least the past decade. Rightly or wrongly, Talent Acquisition and Human Resources are perceived by the Cultural Right as the corporate outriders of Cultural Left, the originators, propagators and enforcers of policies which they deem as hostile. We can expect our colleagues in the US to experience a very challenging period of retrenchment and reversals over the next 4 years.

This won't be quiet either; one of the most characteristic aspects of the Trumpian right is egregious triumphalism; we can expect roll back of every policy on Diversity & Inclusion to be loudly celebrated.

This will trigger a clear separation between the US and the Europeans; DEIB is pretty much agreed consensus in the Europe and legislation making its way through EU parliament will need to be acted upon by national governments who will cascade those policy directions down the employers. National implementations of the European Pay Transparency Directive will be manifesting across Europe during Trump 2.0, as will European Women on Boards Directive, which will require listed employers to have at least 46% representation at board level by 2026. Getting on the right side of upcoming legislation is something all serious EU based businesses will be doing right now, and the orientation of the discourse is focused on the implementation of the policy, rather than debating the validity of the policy.

The rise of the Trumpian Cultural Right in Europe - AfD in Germany, Rassemblement National in France even Reform in the UK - is notable, but ultimately will be boxed out by the political systems designed to prevent their access to power. European deep state is more effective than US deep state in this regard. So lots of noise there, but no entry into government for any of these parties and no roll back on DEIB as a result.

Forecast: US vs Europe (geographical Europe, UK, Switzerland etc fully aligned on this) explicitly diverge on DEIB. This is a socio-politico-economic phenomenon, so hard to put a clear measure in place, but we will see increasing public recognition from European TA / HR leaders that Europe will be going its own way when it comes to diversity and inclusion

How do we know?: Sentiment analysis - search on Google trends on US vs Europe on the issue of DEIB.

5. UK TA Becomes Increasing Offshoring Option for US

The latest projections from the World Economic Forum paint a bleak picture for the UK and for mainland Europe.

Outside of some sort of moon shot, we're looking at another year of anaemic economic growth for UK and Europe. Other regions of the world might stage might mini recoveries, especially if they are able to position themselves as 'bridge' countries connecting the emerging regionalised and politicised blocs lead by the United States and China, but UK and Europe are mired by a lack of political unity and political independence, even as the world obviously reorders around it. Meanwhile, persistent high energy costs erode UK and European industry, forcing manufacturers relocate factories to places where you can make things more cheaply.

One interesting outcome of this continued economic anaemia is the increasing perception of the UK as a cheaper offshoring centre for US employers. We talked about wage arbitrage in Part Two but in the main theme in that story was the movement of Talent Acquisition jobs from Global North to the Global South. It didn't occur to me until I was separately asked on several different occasions by US employers looking to hire TA resources in London rather than New York. Wage arbitration was the reason - for a US employer, you can great value for money by hiring in the UK.

It's bittersweet in a way; sweet in the sense that we definitely need TA jobs in the UK and should do all we can to build the reputation that TA excellence can be had here at reasonable compensation; but bitter in the realisation that the price of being close to the centre is ultimately to be subsumed by it.

Forecast: Number of UK based Talent Acquisition professions working for US companies and hiring for US roles doubles by end of 2025

How do we know: Survey now, survey then.

That's it folks - sorry if it was a bit down, there are positives I assure you (!) but I don't want to sugar coat any forecasts. Let me know what you think - and if I'm wrong, please do say so publicly - the more we all add our voices to the discourse, the better it is.

Next week, we are the final stretch, so get ready for the explanations for my forecasts 16-20 (Global Staffing Agency Revenue Decline, RPO mini recovery, Simplifcation of TA department & Expansion of Scope to P&C, Uberisation of freelance TA and finally, the forecast that my forecasts will be more wrong than right)

Now out of the kitchen, onto the lounge ??

What's Going On?

Big List of Recruiting & HR Events to Attend in 2025

Happy New Year to the most popular spreadsheet on recruiting & HR events in the industry. We're up to 144 events in the Big List for 2025 - with the first starting next week in New York. I'll be in Copenhagen for the NOCA event, so will look forward to connecting with the recruiters in Denmark who are attending. In the meantime - do yourself a favour and bookmark this spreadsheet and do me a favour by sharing with your network on LinkedIn - lets get more people going to these events!

FiesTA, 23-24 January 2025, Bangalore, India.

Delighted to be invited back to Bangalore for this new event to talk about the Next Decade of Recruiting. We're going to have to track long term trends in human capital formation, demographic crisis, climate change, new energy transition and more in what should be the most sci-fi talk I've ever given. It's only 2 months away, so I had better get ready in preparing it!. Tickets here - DM me if you want discount code.

Brainfood Live On Air - Ep289 - Req Load: How Much Is Too Much In The Era of AI? Fri 24th Jan, 2pm GMT

We know that this era of 'doing more with less' has meant an increase in req load per recruiter - this is clear to anyone who is working in talent acquisition! The question arises as to what the right number is these days - if AI is indeed a productivity maximiser then we do need to accept a higher number than pre-AI. But what is the right number, how do we calculate this and how do we resist the idea of absorbing ever more requirements whilst neglecting the things employers say they care about - DEI, CX, QofH? We're with Matthias Schmeisser, Head of Talent, (Emnify), Mark Deubels, TA Leader (Synthesia), Oksana Strippentow, Head of Talent (ex-Mangopay) & Mary Kay Baldino, Head of Talent Acquisition (Morningstar), Andy Mountney, Global Head of Talent Acquisition (Chainlink) & Jeremy Thornton, Founder (Talent Benchmarking) to hammer this out. Register here

The New Standard in Onboarding, Feb 6, 11.am CET

The New Standard in Onboarding: Find the Right AI with Ease (Webinar in German)

In many organizations, onboarding responsibilities often fall on department managers.?This can make it challenging to maintain a consistent and high-quality experience.

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Responsible AI in Recruitment, Wednesday 12th February, 3pm GMT

Looking forward to getting involved in this conversation on the how to use AI responsibly. This is a moment of transformational innovation and as early participants we have the opportunity and responsibility to contribute to the public discourse on how we think we should be using AI. Make sure you sign up to this - going to be an interesting debate! Register here

How to Master High Volume Hiring with AI, Thursday 13th February, 2025, 9am GMT

What is 'High Volume Hiring?' I think it is any scenario where you need to be surge hiring (early entry, seasonal worker etc) and also any scenario where you simply have large numbers of vacancies for the same role (i.e warehousing). We know that we cannot do this manually, with applications directly hitting the recruiters inbox. But what technology do we deploy, what is most suitable for which context? I'm in conversation with one of the smartest people in the the business, Rina Joosten-Rabou, CEO (Pera). Register here

NJA* People & Talent Summit, Thursday 13th March, 2025, Fishburners, Wynyard Station (Sydney)

I'm back in Sydney folks. Thanks to Pam Stevenson, Emer McCann and Anthony Enright for inviting me to come back Down Under. Brand new talk on 'From Talent Acquisition to Talent Everything' - time for the next evolution of the Talent function. Chimpanzees, culture and Ronald Coase will be in this talk. Grab a ticket here

If you have an event, webinar or podcast going on next week and want it featured on next week's newsletter,?comment below?with the link and event details. Don't forget to at mention me so that I see it

End Notes

Looks like I got my visa through, so see you in 24 hours Bangalore. If you're in Bangalore, Puducherry or Chennai over the next two weeks, drop me a comment and let me know - be great to meet up with my India based friends.

Have a great week everyone!

Hung

Hung Lee is the curator of Recruiting Brainfood, and now This Week In Recruiting. Subscribe to both if you are into recruiting or HR or just interested in world of work.