Week of June 17, 2024 Newsletter

??THIS WEEK: Climate Action, Supply Chain, Artificial Intelligence, Healthcare, Sustainability, Trade

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HAPPENING THIS WEEK

Monday, 17 June

• Switzerland: The third session of the ad hoc open-ended working group to prepare proposals for a science-policy panel to contribute further to the sound management of chemicals and waste and to prevent pollution (OEWG-3) will be held at the International Conference Center. (Geneva)
• France: The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization is organizing the event "Progress Towards SDG4: Stocktake of Transformative Actions in Education" convened by the SDG4 High-Level Steering Committee. The Deputy Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks. (Paris)
• China: Release of economic statistics for May, including industrial production, retail sales, and investment figures. (Beijing)
• China: Premier Li visits Canberra, Australia, for a welcoming ceremony and talks with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. (Canberra, Australia)
• New Zealand: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon visits Japan to meet with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. (Japan)

Tuesday, 18 June

• USA: The Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation, Housing, and Urban Development, and Related Agencies will hold a hearing to examine unlocking Department of Transportation financing for more transit-oriented housing development. (Washington, D.C.)
• USA: The UN Women Executive Board, Annual Session 2024, will take place from 18 June to 20 June in Conference Room 2. (New York)
• Croatia: The International Conference on digital platform governance: Building a Global Forum of Networks will be held from 18 June to 19 June. (Dubrovnik)
• Global: The World Meteorological Organization is expected to launch its Hydromet Gap report.
• Japan: Toyota's annual shareholders meeting, with Chairman Akio Toyoda under scrutiny amid a safety scandal. (Tokyo)

Wednesday, 19 June

• A slow day in politics

Thursday, 20 June

• Japan: Tokyo gubernatorial election campaign starts with Governor Yuriko Koike and Renho Saito as main candidates. (Tokyo, Japan)
• USA: The noon briefing guests will be the United Nations Development Programme Administrator, Achim Steiner, Cassie Flynn, UNDP Global Director Climate Change, and Stephen Fisher, Professor of Political Sociology, University of Oxford. They will launch the second edition of the People’s Climate Vote. (New York)
• USA: The Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions will hold hearings to examine the immediate and long-term challenges facing public school teachers, focusing on low pay, teacher shortages, and underfunded public schools. (Washington, D.C.)

Friday, 21 June to Sunday, 23 June

• Japan: On Saturday Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako visit the United Kingdom and meet with King Charles III. (London)

GLOBAL ECONOMIC PULSE

USA

In the USA, industrial production and retail sales figures are crucial for tracking second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth momentum. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has shown hesitance, signaling just one rate cut in 2024. The June S&P Global Investment Manager Index revealed a decline in investor risk appetite due to concerns over economic growth and monetary policy impacts on US equities.

Europe: In Europe, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is anticipated to cut rates on June 20th, potentially easing policy rates for the second time since April. The European Central Bank (ECB), which followed the Riksbank (Sweden) in early June, will also be in focus. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep policy rates on hold, influenced by the upcoming UK election on July 4th. However, the BoE's decision will closely follow the UK inflation figures and June flash PMI surveys to determine if underlying price pressures, especially in the service sector, remain high.

Asia: In Asia, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) will make a decision on the one-year medium-term lending facility rate, with expectations of a potential rate cut. China's key monthly data releases include housing price data, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial production. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to keep rates untouched, although inflation trends could prompt a different stance. India's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is strong but declining, which may pressure the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on rate decisions. Taiwan's export orders are expected to moderate, and Japan's consumer inflation is predicted to rebound due to utility fee hikes and a weak yen. Japan's service and manufacturing PMIs are anticipated to remain in expansionary territory.

Latin America: In Latin America, several key emerging market interest rate decisions are due. Brazil is expected to maintain its interest rate at 10.5%, while Chile and Paraguay are both set at 6.0%. Costa Rica has a rate of 4.75%, and Hungary stands at 7.25%. Brazil's central bank is widely expected to pause its rate cuts.

Africa:? In Africa, the market will focus on South African inflation and the inauguration of the new government. This comes amid broader global concerns and the monitoring of various economic indicators.

Overall, these developments in different regions, alongside the upcoming June flash PMI data, will provide early insights into mid-year economic conditions and the forward-looking indicators for the global economy.

This Week's EXECUTIVE BRIEF:

U.S. Congress: African Growth and Opportunity Act

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has significantly impacted U.S.-Africa trade since 2000, with 2022 imports reaching $10.3 billion. Non-oil imports hit a record $5.7 billion, driven by South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, and Madagascar. AGOA fosters economic growth, job creation, and diversified trade, with a focus on post-pandemic recovery and future extensions.?

Learn what it means to your business:

1.?????? Market Expansion Opportunities: Leverage AGOA benefits to explore new markets in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in sectors with high demand for U.S. goods and services.

2.?????? Economic Diversification: Support and invest in non-oil sectors like apparel, auto parts, and agriculture to capitalize on diversified economic landscapes and reduce dependency on single commodities.

3.?????? Capacity Building and Partnerships: Engage in capacity-building initiatives and form strategic partnerships with local businesses to enhance supply chains, improve productivity, and ensure sustainable practices.

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