The Week in Breakingviews

A common refrain is that Donald Trump’s return as president will make the U.S. government more chaotic and unpredictable. Judging by his first term, that’s probably true. But it downplays the extent to which the United States is already wielding its power in unexpected and far-reaching ways. Three stories in the past week - the last before Trump is sworn in for a second time - illustrate this point.

Start with TikTok. In simple terms, Congress last year passed a law banning the short-form video app, President Joe Biden signed it, and the U.S. Supreme Court rejected an appeal from its owner. But the reality is messier. The Biden administration spent years fretting about Chinese influence on TikTok without coming up with a policy. Now the company has taken itself offline while appealing to Trump - who, lest we forget, initiated the ban in 2020 - for a reprieve.

Nervousness about Chinese technology extends far beyond online influencers. One of the Biden administration’s parting gifts last week was a ban on the sale of connected cars from China, or the software and technology on which they run. The prohibition has little immediate effect on Chinese companies, which have minimal U.S. market share. Yet it’s another example of the messy blending of protectionism with national security. As Eva Dou, the author of “House of Huawei” and I discussed on this week’s The Big View podcast, the U.S. has already made a pariah of the Chinese telecom equipment giant. Will smart televisions or smart fridges be next?

In theory, large well-connected companies should be better placed to navigate this treacherous world. Tell that to Reliance Industries. The giant Indian conglomerate has been benefiting from cheap imports of Russian oil to its refineries, probably with Washington’s tacit approval. No longer. New U.S. sanctions against Russian tankers look set to choke off supplies.

On Monday, Trump will once again get his hands on these U.S. weapons of economic warfare. He is bound to use them in chaotic and unpredictable ways, prompting howls of protest from companies and foreign governments. But this should not obscure the fact that the direction of travel was already clear.

Five things I learned from Breakingviews this week:

1. Three quarters of the companies which did deals worth $10bn or more since 2020 have seen their shares lag the sector benchmark.?
2. Chinese refineries buy 90% of Iranian oil.
3. Over 14% of the U.S. population was born overseas, close to the late-19th century peak.
4. The value of Hong Kong take-private transactions exceeded the proceeds of IPOs last year.
5. Issuance of public US asset-backed securities surged 44% last year.