This Week in Barrons: 11.3.2024

To subscribe: https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com/subscribe

• “One of the greatest features of America … is that we have political contests. ?Once the decision is made, we must unite behind the person who is elected.? I want Senator Kennedy and all of you to know, that he will have my wholehearted support and yours as well.” … Richard Nixon
• Is everyday Halloween to somebody?? There’s a big difference between carrying a stethoscope and being a doctor, and between wearing a clown suit and being a clown.? Entrepreneurs with business cards, slick websites, and cool presentations continue to be confused – because that’s NOT the hard part.? Per Seth G: If costumes put you in the right frame of mind, that’s great.? But the hard part IS (and always was) turning vision into reality.? That is the important part.? If you’re avoiding the important parts – then you’re in trouble from the start.
• “We won’t be fooled again…”? but we will be.? We continue to be fooled by: vaporware, false deadlines, fake budgets, unrealistic promises, con jobs, FOMO, and even ‘flat out’ lies.? False hope delivers a benefit for the moment, while the reality we have to live with – doesn’t arrive for weeks or months.? To eliminate getting fooled the next time, learn why you were fooled the last time.
• Sayeth Macbeth (Per Priya N.) …

o? Do not let the negative voices of others – amplify your own.

o? Focus on the opportunities – not the distracting threats.

o? Every decision comes with: consequences and irreversibility.?

[Per Jeff B: “Once you walk through a door and don’t like what you see, you can’t go back and un-see it.”]

The Market:

• Friday’s October JOBS Report was a disaster …? The headline number said that our economy added 12,000 jobs last month.? The low number was blamed on 2 hurricanes and the Boeing strike.? What they failed to say was that 368,000 ‘fake’ jobs were added by our government’s Birth/Death model.? So factually, our economy actually LOST -356,000 jobs last month.?
• The Car Loan crisis is here … ~33% of Americans who financed their cars, now owe more on their loans (+$6,500 avg.) than what their vehicle is worth.
• A new D.O.T. rule now guarantees ALL airline passengers refunds …? when an airline fails to get you to your intended destination. ?“When an airline knows that all of the passengers on a canceled flight will get their money back, it gives them a different set of reasons to put in the investment, and the realistic scheduling that makes cancellations less likely to happen in the first place.”
• The S&P500 dropped -1% in the month in October … breaking a 5-month streak of gains, yet still placing it up ~20% YTD. ?The cyclical bull market that began in October 2022 looks very much alive and well.

[ Gain access to 1440 here… ]

InfoBits:

• The Magnificent 7 (including Nvidia and Tesla) … ?are expected to report an average earnings growth of 18% - which compares to less than 1% growth for the rest of the S&P 500.
• Billionaires have donated ~$700m to political campaigns…? which is ~20% of the total funds raised in the U.S. election.
• Google will unveil its “Jarvis” AI agent in December …? a tool capable of controlling web browsers to complete tasks like shopping, scheduling, and more.
• Boeing’s voting on a new contract on Monday … fingers crossed.
• Meta is developing?its own AI-powered search engine…? to power real-time information inside of its Meta AI conversations.
• Stock market returns under both Biden and Trump…? have been almost identical with the S&Ps returning ~14% per year.
• BYD surpassed Tesla in total EVs sold for the first time ever … BYD (a Chinese company) is focused on consumer-model EVs priced as low as ~$9,800.? Tesla’s cheapest model is $42,500 and climbing.
• Luckin Coffee (China’s Starbucks) plans its U.S. launch next year …?and is aiming to undercut its rivals by selling drinks for $2.
• OpenAI and ChatGPT.com may crack Google’s search monopoly…? before government regulators have the chance.? ChatGPT.com announced a new search feature (for paid ChatGPT users) that integrates real-time web results inside of its chatbot area. [FYI – It’s amazing, and it has NO ads.]
• Restaurants are now the #1 reason?to go to the mall…? overtaking shopping and Santa.
• Ford?has paused production of its F-150 Lightning EV truck… ?amid slowing demand.? [FYI – I’m not surprised for the prices Ford is asking for its EVs.]
• The new weight-loss drugs?significantly reduce arthritis…? and their pain reduction is on par with opioid treatments.
• Apple is investing $1.1B into GlobalStar…? in a bid to expand its satellite services for the iPhone.

Crypto-Bytes:

• Bitcoin?briefly hit $73,096 last week…? just shy of its all-time high of?$73,750 – recorded March, 2024.
• Behold the Golden Cross … a bullish sign that occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day.? It often signals a bullish trend shift, and acts as a catalyst for sideliners to jump back in.
• Coinbase and Visa are joining forces… ?to let you fund your crypto account instantly with your Visa debit card. ?No more waiting for deposits to clear.
• Our Treasury now sees Stablecoins as a new Liquidity Force …

o? There are $120B in short-term Treasuries … now backing digital dollars.? Our Treasury is eyeing stablecoin regulation that could treat them like money market funds.

o? Tokenized Treasuries could settle transactions immediately … without any red tape.? Our Treasury is considering how tokenization could upgrade its debt management practices.?

• Bitcoin Benchmarks:

o? Jimmy Patronis, CFO for the state of Florida, advocated for bitcoin to be put on the state’s balance sheet.

o? The Central Bank of Argentina opened an art exhibit featuring ASICs machines that were actively mining bitcoin.? The first central bank to actively mine bitcoin.

o? MSTR (MicroStrategy) announced their intention to raise $42B over the next 3 years to purchase more bitcoin.?

o? Blackrock’s bitcoin ETF just set a new record for single day inflows, and IBIT has seen the third largest inflows YTD of any ETF in history.

[ Visit StoneIsland - here… ]

TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):

• Monday:?? Lithium miners are having a moment, as?IONeer (IONR) won government approval for a new Nevada Lithium Mine.? This is the first lithium project in the U.S. to win an approval to begin full scale production as a mine under the Biden administration.? LITM and PLL are enjoying some attention.? PLL making it over $13.15 – will pull me in.
• Wednesday:? The futures are looking higher, after impressive GOOGL earnings (due to strength in their cloud and in YouTube ad sales). ?The NAS marked its 11th?win in the last 13 trading days. ?Earnings tonight include: MSFT & META, and tomorrow is hi-lighted by AAPL & AMZN. ?The S&Ps continue to behave badly with 9 of the 11 sectors ending negative and decliners outpacing advancers by over 2:1.? More economic data is on the horizon: Q3 GDP data, Q3 PCE inflation data, and Friday’s October Jobs Report. ?Gold is at an all-time-high, and market volatility continues to be elevated.
• Friday:? This morning looks like a standard dead-cat-bounce, and I'd be surprised if we get back all of what was lost yesterday. ?There is only today and Monday ahead of the election, and then the market (I believe) will got into a ‘pause mode’ for a few days.? If we get a benign and clear election outcome – then all talk will turn to year-end rallies and existing bullish momentum likely carries it higher.? So, I would advise playing it safe and keeping some cash-on-hand until at least Friday – when we have a cleaner view of the post-election direction.

Morgan’s Moments…

• Silver vs Gold:? With silver being one of the most manipulated commodities on earth, the paper contract to physical silver ratio has exploded to 408:1.? Which means that each ounce of physical silver is now backed by 408 ounces of paper silver derivatives. ?With such an extreme paper-to-physical ratio, even the slightest shift in investor preferences toward physical silver could force a dramatic silver repricing.? Demand for physical silver continues to surge, and customers continue to pay significant premiums for physical delivery.? This suggests to me that confidence is eroding in paper silver derivatives.?

? ?Russia (for the first time) in its annual budget, plans to significantly bolster its silver holdings.? The mention of silver represents the first time any central bank has explicitly included silver in its purchasing plans during the current bull PM market.?

?? So, we have: (a) the most extended paper to silver ratio in history, (b) Sovereign nation(s) beginning to stock up on it, (c) the use of silver solar panels, and communication devices continuing to soar, and (d) all during a silver supply deficit. When these converge, we could see silver at $100 to $125 per ounce.? If we hear of China stockpiling silver as a partner to their gold holdings, silver could gain $80 overnight.? If you need a legitimate place to buy some physical silver, I've been doing business with?cornerstonebullion.com ?since 2009. ?They’re just good people.

Next Week: Bonds are In Control…

• BONDS (the $800B gorilla) are driving this marketplace by flexing their interest rate muscles.? How did our FED cut interest rates, and all rates have done is move higher?? Could we be witnessing a bond, forced-selling avalanche?? What if the Bond Vigilantes do not like the election results?
• Do we have an interest rate problem?? Yes, for the past 2 months, our bonds have undergone some dramatic sell-side activity.? As a consequence, interest rates (since our FED rate CUT) have moved higher from 3.6% to 4.4%.? In fact, except for 2 small time periods – if you purchased Bonds anytime during the past 15 years, you’re losing money.? Yes, those are unrealized losses – until you need the money and you’re forced to liquidate at pre-expiration prices.? The moves and associated volumes inside the Bond market are scaring equities.
• Bond Vigilantes vs the Election Results … On either side, what if Bonds don’t like the Democrat’s spending approach and/or the Republican tax cuts?? Bonds are making their voice heard by threatening a massive sell off (huge interest rate increases) unless our government shows a plan for fiscal responsibility – including spending cuts.? TIP #1: If Bonds continue to sell off (interest rates move markedly higher), then this market will have no choice but to sell off with them.
• Is an AI unwind underway?? MSFT, META, AAPL, and GOOGL all take a back seat to Nvidia when it comes to AI.? As long as Nvidia remains higher – all’s right with the world.? Nvidia is a $3T company with a 60% implied volatility.? That is a scary amount of volatility associated with the second largest corporation in the world.? TIP #2: If shareholders start to grumble about the lack of AI earnings, then NVDA will take a hit along with the P/E ratios (stock prices) of the Mag-7.
• When does election volatility end?? I believe that it’s the actions of the Bond market that will cause the S&Ps to move in one direction or another.? Looking at the daily implied volatility associated with the S&Ps, it appears that next Friday is being given the highest probability for knowing the resolution of the election.
• SPX Expected Move (EM):

-?????? Last Week: $105 EM was anticipated and on Thursday we touched the lower edge almost to the penny.

-?????? Next Week: $153 EM … WOW – that’s 50% higher than last week, and last week was exhausting.?

-?????? TIP #3:? Watch the SHORT-SIDE of every Mag-7 for an AI unwind trade – until NVDA delivers earnings on November 20.?

TIPS:

• Overall … Global monetary policy is shifting from headwind to tailwind as inflation falls and the economic cycle data remains soft.? Among the asset classes most at risk are: Mag-7, US dollar, and corporate credit.? Areas of better risk/reward include: government bonds, commodities, emerging markets, healthcare, and REITs.? They are relatively cheap and lightly allocated within portfolios.
• HODL’s: (Hold-On for Dear Life)

-????? 13 to 17-Week Treasuries @ 4.85%

-????? ICSH == iShares Ultra Short-Term Bond Active ETF

-????? Physical Commodities = Gold @ $2,745/oz. & Silver @ $32.5/oz.

-????? Bitcoin (BTC = $69,600 / in at $4,310)

-????? Ethereum (ETH = 2,530 / in at $310)

-????? HROW – Harrow Health = $45.6 / in at $12

-????? INDA – India ETF ($54.8 / in at $50)

-????? IBIT – Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF ($39 / in at $24)

-????? GLD – Gold ETF ($252 / in at $212)

o? Gold ETF: Jan ‘25: +$260 / -$265 CALL-Sp.

-????? SVM – Silvercorp Metals = ($4.6 / in at $4)

o? SVM – Silvercorp Metals: Jan. ’25: +$5 Calls

-????? DSVSF – Discovery Silver = ($0.64 / in at $0.62)

Options for Income: **RIOT – Riot Bitcoin Mining

-????? Bi-Weekly: ?BUY the Stock

-????? BUY Puts 1 Std. Dev. OTM for protection

-????? SELL Covered Calls ? Std. Dev. OTM for income

Please be safe out there!?

Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts offered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.??You can subscribe by visiting: https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com/subscribe .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <[email protected] > to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <https://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/ > and/or https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com

If you'd like to see R.F. in action - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0 ??

Creativity = https://youtu.be/n2QiPSe_dKk ??

Investing =?https://youtu.be/zIIlk6DlSOM

Marketing?=?https://youtu.be/p0wWGdOfYXI

Sales?=?https://youtu.be/blKw0zb6SZk

Startup Incinerator = https://youtu.be/ieR6vzCFldI ?

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.??Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.??This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.??Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

-?????? To Subscribe: https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com/subscribe

-?????? Remember the Blog: <https://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>? and/or https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com

Until next week – be safe. R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:[email protected] >

https://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com

https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com

?