This Week in Barrons: 11.24.2024

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• Are you going far, or are you going fast?? Per Seth Godin, sprints and marathons are both foot races, but they have very little in common.? Their training is different, and so is their technique.?? Which one do you: believe, promote, and sell face-2-face? ?Are you promising to get there faster, or promising to go further?
• Falling Asleep more easily … is accomplished by making a to-do list before bed.? A recent study found that the group of participants who jotted their to-do list down – fell asleep 15 minutes faster than those who had their tasks simply swirling in their heads.
• As we work to make things better, it’s easy to overlook 2 things:

1.?? Improvements rarely come as result of a ‘Big Bang’, but rather as a result of hard work by small groups of people finding opportunities and keeping promises.

2.?? Improvements are incremental.? Early steps are virtually un-detectable, but continual rinse-n-repeat transforms our when no one is looking.

???? Per Seth Godin: “The best way to make things better is to start, create the conditions for others to join, and for you to persist.”

The Market:

• Baby boomers own?~40% of all homes in the U.S.? Home ownership has allowed boomers to build wealth by simply holding an asset that benefits from debasing the U.S. Dollar.? The U.S. Dollar has seen an ~90% reduction in purchasing power since the 1970s, while home prices have exploded higher during that same time period.? Per Anthony Pompliano, Millennials realized that real estate and bitcoin both appreciate while the Dollar is being debased.? Boomers had housing – Millennials have bitcoin.? Factually, the worst 4-year annual growth rate for Bitcoin is 24% per year.? That means that between the worst-case growth rate and the current rate, bitcoin will end up between $782,000 - $5.2m / bitcoin over the next 10 years.?

Tip #1: “The only thing investors need to do is buy some bitcoin and chill. ?Don’t trade it.? Don’t get cute.”

• Separate from the boom in crypto ETF demand and FOMO … bitcoiners just got three new plot points:??

1.?? SEC Chair Gary Gensler announced his resignation effective January 20.? Gensler’s exit opens the door to a crypto-friendly regulatory boss.?

2.?? Crypto heavyweights are vying for seats in Trump’s crypto council.? Industry professionals from Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz, Ripple, Kraken, and Circle are vying for a new White House position dedicated entirely to crypto policy,

3.?? Senator Cynthia Lummis called on the US to sell gold and buy bitcoin: “Because of the way that bitcoin has been appreciating since inception, this would be an asset that would help shore up the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency.”

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InfoBits:

• Bank of America forecasts gold reaching $3,000 by 2025.
• Spirit Airlines has filed for bankruptcy protection … following a merger attempt with JetBlue Airways that a federal judge blocked in January on antitrust grounds.? [Your honor, is putting 1,000’s out of work better than merging?]
• Breaking up is hard to do … In U.S. vs Google, the DOJ has urged the judge to mandate the sale of Chrome and unwind Google’s partnership with Anthropic.
• Gemini (Google’s chatbot) can now … ?“remember the things you care about” – which makes its responses more targeted and relevant.
• Walmart raised its sales guidance – again … as high-earners splurged on nice-to-haves.? [FYI: Even at WMT, high-income spenders are leading the charge.]
• Bluesky (an X competitor) has crossed … the 20m user mark and has been sitting atop the Apple App Store’s rankings for the past week.
• Rumor = W. Buffet is warming to the idea of nuclear energy … so keep the usual suspects on your radar: UUUU, DNN, UEC, and NXE.
• Delta Airlines announced … that passengers on flights traveling 900+ miles will soon be able to pick a Shake Shack Cheeseburger as their in-flight meal.
• Nvidia’s revenues soared 94% YoY … and Q3 profits increased 106%.
• Australia’s governing Labor Party introduced the world’s first legislation … to ban Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and X for children under 16.
• Per Steve Forbes: Our national debt exceeded $36T last week … which makes paying back even the ‘interest portion of the debt’ that much more difficult.
• 80% to 85% of retail shopping occurs in Q4.

Crypto-Bytes:

• Tyler Winklevoss went full-nuclear on … SEC Chair Gary Gensler calling him “evil with sociopathic ambitions.? Gensler torched the crypto industry, wiped out livelihoods, and pushed his political agenda at any cost – even if it meant blowing up his own party.”
• Bernstein analysts think $200k Bitcoin by 2025 isn’t just plausible … it’s ‘on-brand’.? Trump stacked his cabinet with pro-BTC picks, chatter about a U.S. Bitcoin reserve is increasing, and institutional adoption is hitting hyperdrive. With ETFs piling up, MicroStrategy backing up the truck, and miners hoarding – this bull run isn’t just for retail – it’s for sovereigns and suits now.
• Traditional banks are playing a losing game … trying to keep crypto out.? Sam Price remarked: “It’s the irony of banks kicking-out Bitcoin-rich clients – while the rest of the world wakes up to fiat’s flaws.? Banks will NOT integrate crypto slowly.? When they give in, it’ll hit like a landslide.”
• Options on bitcoin ETFs launched last week …?turning Bitcoin into a playground for more sophisticated strategies,

1.?? More liquidity & stability … bring in bigger players, deeper pockets, and often upward pressure on price.

2.?? Institutional-grade tools … give pros access to strategies like covered calls, protective puts, straddles, and iron butterflies.

3.?? New ETF products are coming … that will cater to every kind of investor, from risk-averse hedgers to aggressive speculators.

4.?? A regulatory seal of approval … Options solidify Bitcoin’s legitimacy in the eyes of regulators and institutional investors.

• Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research said: “Bitcoin’s price performance is finally moving closer to historical trend.? If the patterns repeat, we’re in store for some fireworks in the coming months.”
• China is legalizing bitcoin … as a Shanghai court clarified that personal cryptocurrency ownership is now legal under Chinese law – despite the ongoing ban on crypto-related business activities.
• Crypto’s got options … the total potential value of options on BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF amounted to an “unprecedented” ~$1.9B in its first day.
• VC funding?in crypto startups … dropped to $3.1B in 2024 YTD.

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TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):

• Thursday:? NVDA produced a fantastic earnings report.? It wasn't super-duper / hyper-crazy fantastic – just your run of the mill fantastic.? They guided -2% below Wall Street’s dreams, but cooler heads prevailed and NVDA is trading higher this morning.? The other story continues to be the surge in Bitcoin, hitting yet another all-time high this morning of $98,000.? It is now up 40% since the election, MSTR is up another +10% premarket, and COIN is up +3% as the new administration is expected to relax regulations and be crypto friendly.
• Friday:? Euro zone business activity slumped this month as the preliminary composite Euro zone Purchasing Managers' Index sank to a 10-month low in November. ?Gold futures rose over 1% back above $2,700/oz. as safe-haven demand outweighs a stronger U.S. dollar and is on track for its biggest weekly gain since October of last year. ?Growing tensions around the Russia-Ukraine war have brought gold and bitcoin back into focus, alongside pressure on the Mag-7.

Morgan’s Moments…

• You ‘invest’ in bitcoin – you don’t ‘trade’ bitcoin … because the number of days in a year where ‘the-big-moves’ happen are so small == 10 days.? Missing those 10 days will devastate a portfolio, as?they often account for the majority of bitcoin's annual gains.? That’s true of crypto in general:

-?????? XLM reclaimed 145 weeks of losses and stagnation in just 13 days.

-?????? ADA reversed 131 weeks of downward action in 10 days.

-?????? DOGE bounced back from 164 weeks of price declines in 31 days.

-?????? XRP took 19 weeks to recover over 3 years of declines.

• The United States should print $250B and buy bitcoin.? Adding $250B worth of bitcoin to the 200,000 bitcoin we currently hold, and the US would immediately be the largest bitcoin holder in the world with 1.8m bitcoin.? There will only be 21m bitcoin ever created – so the scarcity of the asset should naturally lead to future price appreciation.? Per Anthony Pompliano, bitcoin is a technology product built to protect against currency debasement.? The US suffers from that exact problem; therefore, bitcoin should be our solution.?
• Only 1.66m bitcoin exist on exchanges … which is less than 8.5% of all total supply.? The available supply continues to drop, and the speed of its decent is accelerating.?

Tip #2: Fair Warning: a bitcoin supply shock is coming.

Next Week: Is Tech losing its Edge?

• Bkgd:

-?????? Bitcoin appears ready for the ‘pause-that-refreshes’.? $100k is a major barrier and extremely bullish when we break through.

-?????? The third year of this bull market (beginning Oct. 2022) will be tricky, but if the bull lives through it – the next few years will be solid.

-?????? Mutual Funds are holding less cash than usual, and remain underweight Mag-7 tech.

• Sectors: Financials, Energy & Tech … This week the options market predicted that the S&Ps would move +/- $96 from the 5870 level, and we actually moved +$99.? Under that umbrella, our markets are behaving in an extremely efficient manner.? However, the bulk of that move higher was done by investors rotating out of Mag-7 tech and into financials and energy and crypto.
• Rate issues have not abated … We remain one bad bond day away from cracking the 4.5% mark on the 10-Year Note – which will slow down investor’s ‘animal spirits’ considerably.
• Bitcoin has uncoupled itself from tech … and has taken on a life of its own due a ‘perfect storm’ of factors: (a) change of regulatory leadership, (b) an expansion of investment alternatives (including options), and (c) a supply constrained marketplace.? For those reasons and more,

-?????? Tip #3: If / when BTC breaks $100,000 … it should go to $106,835, but if it pauses – it could re-test $94,820.

-?????? Tip #4: A BTC ‘pause’ would allow Alt-Coins like: ETH, LINK, UNI, AAVE, SOL and DOGE to catch up.

• SPX Expected Move (EM):

-?????? Last Week’s EM (5-day week) = $96 and we moved $99 – demonstrating an efficient market.

-?????? Next Week’s EM (3.5-day week) = $69 … which means: ‘Don’t put your big-boy pants away just yet’ – because traders are going to be ‘locked & loaded’ for this holiday week of trading.

TIPS:

Tip #5: Utilities:

-?????? NEE ($76.80) – is moving to $80.64.

-?????? PEG ($92.35) – is moving to $101.

-?????? ETN ($370.95) – is moving to $400.

?

HODL’s: (Hold-On for Dear Life)

-????? ICSH == iShares Ultra Short-Term Bond Active ETF (6% yield)

-????? JPC == Nuveen Preferred Income Opportunities Fund (10% yield)

-????? Physical Commodities = Gold @ $2,718/oz. & Silver @ $31.4/oz.

-????? Bitcoin (BTC = $98,750 / in at $4,310)

-????? Ethereum (ETH = 3,440 / in at $310)

-????? HROW – Harrow Health = $42.9 / in at $12

-????? IBIT – Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF ($56.49 / in at $24)

-????? ETHA – Blackrock’s Spot Ethereum ETF ($25.6 / in at $20)

-????? GLD – Gold ETF ($250 / in at $212)

?

Options for Income: **RIOT / MARA – Bitcoin Mining

-????? Bi-Weekly: ?BUY the Stock

-????? BUY Puts 1 Std. Dev. OTM for protection

-????? SELL Covered Calls ? Std. Dev. OTM for income

?

Crypto Plays == BTC, ETH, LINK, UNI, AAVE, SOL & DOGE.

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Please be safe out there!

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