In the week ahead: U.S. CPI & PPI, BOC Rate Statement, UK GDP

The US dollar fell once again, against most major currencies on Friday, with the USDX down by another 0.38%. The dollar fell for the fifth straight day last week, hitting a four-month low. This drop followed weaker-than-expected US jobs data as Nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000, below the forecast of 160,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, exceeding the expected 4.0%.

Elsewhere, Sunday's data revealed significant deflationary pressures in China, with consumer prices falling at the fastest rate in 13 months and producer prices experiencing their 30th consecutive month of decline. In an effort to counter these trends, Beijing announced plans for more stimulus and AI development during the National People's Congress, which concludes on Tuesday. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump in a Fox News interview on Sunday declined to predict whether his tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico would result in a U.S. recession.

Wall Street sentiment moderately improved on Friday, as the three major stock indices recovered slightly from previous substantial losses. This followed the release of lower-than-expected Nonfarm Payroll numbers and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell reassured markets, stating that 'Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the US economy continues to be in a good place,' and downplaying concerns over the Trump administration's trade policies. Looking ahead, quarterly earnings reports from BioNTech, Oracle, Adobe, and DocuSign are due later this week.

On the cryptos front, Bitcoin appears to be extending its recent decline on Monday, despite the U.S. establishing a strategic crypto reserve and hosting a White House summit. Disappointing market reactions to these events, coupled with broader economic concerns like a slowing U.S. economy and potential trade tariffs, dampened risk appetite. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by 6.38% and 8.32% respectively on the iFOREX platform on Sunday, nearing multi-month lows even as the U.S. recently approved a national Bitcoin reserve and stockpiles of Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano.

In the week ahead, focus could shift to inflation data from the U.S. in the form of CPI and PPI while Canada will announce its interest rate decision, and the U.K. will publish GDP numbers. Some price action could also be observed upon the release of the JOLTS Job Openings report on Tuesday and the preliminary consumer sentiment and inflation expectations reports due on Friday.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair gained over 0.50% on Friday and wrapped up the week with a strong 4.57% increase, as shown on the iForex platform. The pair’s gains stem from concerns over a potential slowdown in the US economy.

Friday’s US jobs report showed Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 151,000 in February, below the expected 160,000, with January’s figures revised down to 125,000. The weaker labor market data weighed on the US Dollar, boosting EUR/USD. Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reaffirmed that the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs set for Wednesday remain on track, potentially impacting market sentiment.

In Europe, Germany’s planned fiscal reforms, including increased defense spending and a €500 billion infrastructure package, provided support for the Euro. The ECB’s widely expected 25bps rate cut signaled a less restrictive stance, with markets anticipating one or two more cuts later this year.

Gold

Gold prices edged slightly lower on Friday as the US Dollar trimmed losses and Treasury yields rebounded following the latest US jobs report.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that February’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) showed job growth exceeding January’s figures but still falling short of expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates, cautioning that the path to 2% inflation will be uneven. He added that the Fed is well-positioned and doesn’t need to overreact to short-term data.

Meanwhile, easing geopolitical tensions, including potential progress on a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, limited gold’s upside.

WTI Oil

Oil prices climbed on Friday but pulled back from session highs after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of potential sanctions on Russia if it fails to negotiate a ceasefire with Ukraine.

Prices had surged earlier in the session after Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that OPEC+ would proceed with its planned April production increase but could later consider cuts.

Market volatility was driven by geopolitical developments, with analysts noting that concerns over Russia overshadowed other factors, including stalled ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas.

Oil prices stabilized late in the session after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank is closely monitoring the impact of new trade policies on the U.S. economy.

US 500

The US 500 rose on Friday but still closed the week in the red as investors navigated a weaker-than-expected jobs report and ongoing trade uncertainty.

Wall Street’s major indices posted weekly losses as concerns grew over the economic impact of the White House’s shifting tariff policies. President Trump signaled that reciprocal tariffs on Canada could take effect as early as Friday, ahead of the April 2 deadline. Meanwhile, Canada postponed planned retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. Adding to the uncertainty, the White House is considering easing energy sanctions on Russia to encourage a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the need for a patient approach on rate adjustments, citing economic stability despite uncertainty.

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