The Week Ahead

-BEIGE BOOK: The Federal Reserve’s Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions (informally known as the Beige Book) will be released Wednesday covering a 7-week period through early May. The report, which is a summary of anecdotal information on economic conditions in the central bank’s 12 districts, should provide an updated look at various trends across the U.S. business landscape, including stabilizing wage pressures and increasingly price-conscious customers.

-THURSDAY RETAIL EARNINGS: On Thursday morning, investors will see how much of a boost blue chip wholesaler Costco (COST) received from increased membership and sales of gold bars in its fiscal third quarter. Thursday results from retailers Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Nordstrom (JWN), Burlington (BRL), and Gap (GPS) will show if various combinations of inventory efficiencies, cost reductions, refreshed brands, and better customer engagement led to improved sales and profit trends in recent months.

-CORE PCE: On Friday morning, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index is expected to have moderated in April to a rate of 0.2% from 0.3% in March. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of forecasters for April’s year-over-year core PCE reading is 2.7%, down slightly from 2.8% the month prior. The slow progress of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge toward policymaker’s 2% annual inflation target is likely to extend the amount of time needed for Chair Powell and his colleagues to confidently initiate rate cuts.

-SHORT-TERM SUPPORT: After last week’s back-and-forth action led the S&P 500 Index to a closing level of nearly 5,305, the benchmark finds itself about 2% above its 20-day moving average 5,212 and 2.5% higher than its 50-day moving average of 5,173. These two levels could provide short-term support should any weakness arise in this holiday-shortened week, which has traditionally seen lower-than-average trading volumes.