The Week Ahead

THINGS TO WATCH

– SEPTEMBER LABOR MARKET DATA: Friday morning’s nonfarm payrolls report for September is expected to show the pace of net hiring last month decelerated to 168,000 from 187,000 in August and an average of 235,000 in the first eight months of the year. The unemployment rate will likely dip to 3.7% from 3.8% in August, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The United Auto Workers strike probably only had a limited effect on job growth last month as it began after the September payroll survey period ended.

– MODELO AND JEANS: A pair of consumer-focused companies reporting quarterly results Thursday could provide clues about the resilience of U.S. consumer spending this summer. Constellation Brands (STZ), the distributor of Modelo and Corona in the U.S., is projected to have grown adjusted EPS by 7% in its August quarter amid strong demand for its beer brands. Denim specialist Levi Strauss & Co.’s (LEVI) results and commentary are expected to give insight into the impact of the return of student loan repayments on discretionary spending.

– WILL SPEAKER MCCARTHY BE FORCED OUT? After reaching a deal late Saturday night on a 45-day bipartisan stopgap funding bill to avert a federal government shutdown, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has come under heavy criticism by a portion of the House GOP caucus. Florida Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz has vowed to file a motion this week to vacate McCarthy as House Speaker in response for failing to adhere to spending constraints in reaching the eleventh-hour agreement. Gaetz’s plan would force the entire chamber including 212 Democrats) to vote on ousting McCarthy.

– JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS: Any signs that yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) are moving toward the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) stated cap of 1% would likely put further upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and raise the odds that BOJ policymakers would intervene in their bond markets for the second time in two weeks.