The week ahead- January 21, 2025
Market Conditions and Trading Week Highlights
As the markets prepare for a short trading week starting Tuesday, January 21, 2025, we anticipate several impactful events and themes to shape market movements. Monday’s U.S. holiday leaves global currency and futures markets active, setting the stage for potential volatility ahead of inauguration day. With President Trump expected to deliver a fiery and decisive speech, we should brace for bold rhetoric on tariffs, trade policies, and economic plans. While this rhetoric might be designed to energize his base, the real market impact will depend on the specifics—or lack thereof—in his proposed actions.
Economic and Market Review: Insights from Last Week
The past week saw significant moves across equity and bond markets. Bullish sentiment dominated, supported by disinflationary data. Both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflected subdued inflationary pressures, triggering a rally. Notably, the yield curve experienced a bull flattener, with yields declining across maturities, signaling bullishness in bonds. Markets reacted favorably to this, with the S&P 500 rising 2.91% and TLT (a proxy for long-term Treasuries) gaining 2%. The Federal Reserve remains in focus, with the FOMC meeting on January 29 expected to hold rates steady, though future rate cuts are on the table if economic conditions warrant. There are potential headwinds. Tariffs, deportations, and regulatory costs may exert upward pressure on prices and wages, complicating the inflation outlook.
Policy Themes: Tariffs, Deportations, and Regulation
Tariffs are expected to dominate the administration’s early agenda. While the likelihood of across-the-board tariffs remains uncertain, President Trump has signaled a willingness to impose significant levies on key trading partners, including Canada, Mexico, and China. Retaliation is inevitable, with Canada already outlining plans for countermeasures affecting $37 billion in U.S. imports, potentially escalating to $110 billion. A full-blown trade war would lower global trade volumes and real GDP growth, while driving up import costs and inflation.
Deportation policies also carry economic implications. The deportation of undocumented workers, many of whom participate in the labor force, could lead to wage inflation due to a reduced labor supply. However, the loss of aggregate demand from deported individuals may partially offset this.
The proposed tariffs by President-elect Donald Trump are expected to have significant negative impacts on both the U.S. and Canadian economies. A 25% tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico could lead to a 2.6% shrinkage in Canada's GDP (approximately CAD $78 billion) and a 1.6% reduction in U.S. GDP (about USD $467 billion). This would cost Canadians around $1,900 per person annually and Americans about $1,300 per person annually. The tariffs could potentially trigger a recession in Canada by mid-2025, with job losses estimated at 124,000 by 2028 in British Columbia alone. For the U.S., tariffs are projected to reduce trade, distort production, and lower living standards. They would increase prices of imported goods, reduce consumers' purchasing power, and potentially lead to retaliatory tariffs from other countries, further exacerbating economic losses. The impact of deregulation and deportation on the economy was not specifically addressed in the provided search results.
Market Outlook: Equity Valuations vs. Fixed-Income Opportunities
The equity market faces headwinds in 2025 after two consecutive years of strong gains. At nearly 28.5 times trailing earnings, the S&P 500 enters the year with historically high valuations, comparable to peak levels in the late 1990s. This elevated starting point raises questions about the market’s ability to deliver risk-adjusted returns. Bond markets, on the other hand, present compelling opportunities. With the 10-year Treasury yielding 4.61% and the potential for rate cuts pushing yields lower, the risk-adjusted hurdle for equities to outperform bonds becomes increasingly difficult to clear.
领英推荐
Cash also remains attractive, offering a risk-free return of 4.18% under two projected Fed rate cuts. For the S&P 500 to deliver equivalent returns, it would need to close the year at approximately 6,436—just to match the risk-adjusted opportunity of holding bonds or cash. Achieving this while navigating inflation, regulatory costs, and potential geopolitical shocks appears challenging.
Futures Curve
The futures term structure for the federal funds rate shows the following pricing:
- Q1: 7.5 basis points
- Q2: 15 basis points
- Q3: 9 basis points
- Q4: 6 basis points
This pricing suggests approximately 38 basis points of rate cuts, or about one and a half cuts, over the next eight meetings. The curve indicates a potential rate cut between Q1 and Q2, with further easing expected later in the year.