Week 7 Upset Review

Week 7 Upset Review

FIRST: the stuff I warned you about.

1.??????Oklahoma State did beat Texas as predicted and the Big 12 future is a mess. OSU faces Iowa State next week and I am interested to see just how good ISU is. But in the off chance OU and OSU make it to the iron Bowl undefeated, the winner of that game is in the driver seat. However, given the crazy Conference championship rematch on December 4th in Arlington could decide who was the #2 seed in the CFP. Or if one or both contenders in that game come in with a low it may mean the Big 12 doesn’t even get to play. At this point Baylor and ISU both have nontrivial chances to make it to the Big 12 championship! That said, the winner on December 4 will be in a big New Year’s Day bowl and it won’t be pretty for the also rans. Can you say “Cheez-t” bowl?

2.??????I confidently predicted Auburn to upset #17 Arkansas. Auburn is now #19 and Arkansas drops out of the rankings. Just as well, Arkansas has an impossible schedule with Ole Miss, A&M and Alabama ahead. From a fairy tale team to 7-5? Yep, that is my prediction.

3.??????I predicted the upset as then #18 Arizona State visits unranked Utah. Assuming the Ducks beat the Beavers (not a foregone conclusion but likely) the Pac12 North is set. Utah is in the driver’s seat in the south and could even lose their regular season fame to Oregon and still make the Pac 12 championship game less than two weeks later.

4.??????I asked which (3-3) LSU team would show up to host #20 Florida. They answered with “the one that can beat any team on our home turf!” Florida also drops from the rankings.

5.??????You heard us when we said Kentucky would get creamed by UGA. We also told you TCU was less horrible than their record and they would hang in with the Sooners for a while.

6.??????I also called (but was sad to see) now 6-1 Baylor manhandle then #19 BYU. BYU has two losses and three more eminently losable games ahead. That Independence Bowl trip depends on some improvement. This game was sad.

Now what I got wrong:

1. No, I did not see the Iowa upset. I did point out how bad both Iowa and Penn State looked in their game but wow. The Big 10 looks like a super mess now with three undefeated (in conference) teams in the East plus a Penn State team with only one conference loss. Any of these 4 could reasonably make the Championship game, the winner of which is likely a CFP lock. Iowa remains in the driver’s seat in the west and only has to beat Minnesota to make it to the championship (along with all the weak sisters). But what about Purdue? They just beat Iowa and only have some conference loss? Unlike Iowa, Purdue has Ohio State and Michigan State on their schedule, and it is rare that lightning strikes three times in the same place. The good news is that for the first time in many years the Big10 is interesting!

2. I really expected Michigan State to do more against Indiana. The Hoosiers gave up an average of 27 points per game this season, even surrendering 31 points in their win over Western Kentucky (yes, that is an actual school, I checked). Yet Michigan State only managed 20? Only lowly Idaho failed to score more. MSU will have to crank

3. Can Cincinnati be kept out of the CFP? Slowly I am being convinced “no.” Face it, the looked good against Georgia on the big stage and unless SMU can invoke John Wesley himself, the Bearcats will face the Houston Cougars who will need Sam Houston, the Allen brothers and others backing them up to beat Cincinnati.

CFP musings:

1. Assuming CFP runs the tables they are likely to be in along with UGA if they do likewise.

2. Assuming Alabama and UGA meet in Atlanta, an Alabama win likely puts them in and possibly both. OK, I don’t think the SEC is getting two slots.

3. The Big 12 only gets a slot with an undefeated team or a 1-loss Conference champion who avenged their regular season loss. So far that means OU or OSU but the conference champion could be Baylor or even less likely Iowa State. A 1-loss Baylor and for sure a 2-loss Iowa State might get a Fiest Bowl nod but a CFP invite.

4. Unless the Big 10 self-implodes (a nontrivial scenario) the conference champion is in. Ohio State is playing like the best team in the country and an early season loss to Oregon may be forgiven with wins over Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue and Penn State. That said, Michigan or Michigan State could run the remaining table undefeated and PSU could do the same with 1-loss. What will be confusing is everyone beating everyone else once or twice and (worst of all) an upset in the Conference championship sending a 2-loss team to the party. In my heart I think one of Michigan, MSU or Ohio State will run the tables and it will be clear.

5. The Ducks? Oregon beat Ohio State early and only has one loss (TO MY BELOVED STANFORD CARDINAL) in the upset of the year. Assuming they win out and win the Pac 12 (ho hum) championship they will have won a conference with NO ranked opponents (as of today). I don’t see it unless Cincinnati blows a game or the Big 12 implodes (also possible) and a 2- loss team wins the conference.

6. Oh WAIT! Are we forgetting 6-0 Wake Forest assuming they win out including #18 NC State and a Clemson team that will be ranked again by end of season? Yes.

7. Oh Wait, SMU, San Diego State and UTSA are undefeated. Never mind.