Week 5 College Football Upsets and Review (wow)

UPSETS

1.??????I was hoping for some upsets as I am of course a Stanford fan and the BIGGEST upset this weekend was #3 Oregon going down to Stanford in OT. ?With less than 2 minutes to go, ESPN’s “probability calculator” had a 99.9% chance of the Ducks winning. Although my beloved Cardinal lead in the first half, Oregon dominated in the second half with Stanford committing no less that six false starts on offense after the half! If you haven’t seen the last two minutes you should look for it was without a doubt the craziest comeback in a long, long time. Stanford and UC Bezerkeley however OWN the all-time craziest finish in The Game.

2.??????#7 Cincinnati really beat #9 Notre Dame in what was clearly an upset at 2010 Moose Krause Circle. Cincinnati, Notre Dame, #13 BYU and #16 Coastal Carolina each had a chance of going undefeated and ONE of them might have had a shot at the CFP. Three are still in the hunt. Notre Dame still faces USC, UNC and Stanford so with 1 or maybe 2 losses they are unlikely. Cincinnati has no real challenges left on their schedule is a near lock to finish 12-0 and 13-0 after the AAC Championship game. Coastal Carolina has an even weaker schedule remaining and is a lock to finish undefeated. Of the four, Notre Dame and BYU have much tougher schedules and BYU still has to face a ranked Baylor and USC. Assuming they all win out Cincinnati is likeliest to be highest ranked based on the “inertia” factor, but BYU would have had the more impressive schedule. And (as you will see in item5 below) BYU is clearly better than Ohio State. This scenario basically requires OU and OSU to both have one loss or all four of the currently undefeated Big10 team to have a loss. Both of those things are possible.

3.??????Undefeated but unranked Kentucky beat #10 Florida ?in what was (besides Stanford Oregon) my favorite game of the day. Florida has now lost to Kentucky, Alabama and will surely lose to Georgia and maybe LSU.

4.??????#15 Texas A&M was defeated at home by 2-2 Mississippi State. After losing to Arkansas (who has proven they are not really in the first tier in the SEC they thought they were), A&M blows a home game, giving up a safety late in the game. We thought this might happen and I think Texas fans down the road might be looking at the decision to join the SEC and thinking “huh?”

5.??????Arizona State?trounced #20 UCLA in the Rose Bowl. Jayden Daniels looked great. So, BYU beat Arizona State who beat UCLA who beat Stanford who beat Oregon who beat Ohio State. See how much fun this becomes?

6.??????#19 Oklahoma State beating #21 Baylor wasn’t technically an upset, but I promised a good game and they delivered. The Bedlam game with OU-OSU could deliver a CFP entrant.

7.??????Hawai’i upends #18 Fresno State in the only upset I didn’t warn you about. So Hawai’i beat UCLA who beat Stanford who beat Oregon who beat Ohio State. SO clearly, Hawai’i must be WAY better than Ohio State.

Games that were closer than you would have guessed.

1.??????#6 Oklahoma just seems to want to lose to lesser teams. Of course, lowly Kansas State has had their number in the not too distant past so a road game 6-point victory should inspire gratitude among OU fans rather than disappointment. That is why this game was on last week’s upset watch anyway.

2.??????Louisville and #24 Wake Forest were on the upset watch from last week. Louisville got the short end of a referee timing error that allowed Wake to kick a FG at the end of the first half they shouldn’t have had, so this one was super close.

3.??????Boston College and #25 Clemson were also on the upset watch. Perhaps for good reason as Clemson squeaked out a 19-13 victory.

Other stuff we learned

1.??????Wow, #2 Georgia is good. And while JT Daniels is an amazing QB, he was out today. Stetson Bennet filled in without a blink being missed as UGA destroyed an Arkansas team that had rolled over the Texas contenders. UGA does have to beat Auburn at Jordan-Hare and Florida but the way those teams have played lately they don’t seem to be major challenges. Looks like all roads lead to Mercedes-Benz stadium on December 4.

2.??????#1 Alabama is a lot better than almost anyone, beating a stout #12 Ole Miss team. Looks like UGA and the Tide could go into the SEC championship #1 and #2 both undefeated and instead of doing the right thing (just cancelling the CFP and calling the SEC championship winner the National Champions) they would both go into the CFP ranked 1 and 3 so they could replay the game only if they both win the first one. I am sort of joking, but these two are the best teams today.

3.??????#4 Penn State, #5 Iowa, ?#17 Michigan State, #11 Ohio State, #14 Michigan all won handily against much weaker teams, teaching us nothing. The winner of next week’s Penn State-Iowa game will be in the driver seat and ranked #3. A win out is a lock for the CFP. Would the Big 10 champion get a bid with one loss? Sort of depends. The Pac12 doesn’t have a chance and neither does the ACC, so if the Big 12 delivers an undefeated champion and we assume at least Coastal Carolina and Cincinnati (and maybe BYU) run the tables a 1-loss Big10 champion might not make the cut even if their schedule was WAY harder than Cincinnati.

4.??????The bounce back factor is real. After beating Clemson on the road, NC State squeaked past lowly Louisiana Tech in Raleigh. Likewise, after my beloved Georgia Tech team smacked ranked UNC around last week, they got hammered by Pitt.

5.??????LSU may not be great this year but it is had to beat them at home. Just ask #22 Auburn who needed a late 4th quarter rally to win.