Week 41

This week, right now. Week 41 (8 - 15 October)

Keeping you up to date on global affairs. Every Sunday. In under a few minutes.

International

• The recent Hamas attacks on Israel, dubbed Israel's 9/11, have amplified Middle East tensions with vast geopolitical repercussions. This conflict links Hamas to Hezbollah, Syria, Qatar, and Iran, which collaborates with powers like Russia and China. These nations challenge the West's boundaries. Historically, the Hamas-Israel clash stems from territorial and religious disagreements, frequently erupting into confrontations. To ease tensions, the West should collaborate with countries like India, Brazil, and Indonesia. After gaining independence in 1947, India attracted Israel's interest in forming a robust alliance. Presently, India is Israel's primary arms buyer, acquiring advanced military equipment such as missiles, radars, and drones. While India upholds strong ties with the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, it also hosted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in 2018, indicating its support for the Palestinian cause. However, geopolitical shifts and domestic politics have drawn India closer to Israel and the U.S., both strategic partners. With a 9-million-people Indian diaspora in the Middle East and concerns about jihadist terrorism, India views its Israel relationship as vital for its strategic interests. The absence of a US ambassador in Israel (but also Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, or Oman,) adds to the complexity.
• X, previously known as Twitter, has come under fire for its handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict following a surge in misleading posts. Controversy erupted when Elon Musk endorsed certain accounts for real-time war coverage, some of which had previously posted false or antisemitic content. One of these accounts had even shared a derogatory comment towards Jewish people, while both had disseminated an untrue claim about an explosion at the Pentagon. Musk later withdrew his endorsement after contesting the use of the term "martyrs" in relation to Gaza fighters by one of these accounts. Meanwhile, experts have identified an alarming increase in fake social media accounts spreading disinformation about the conflict. Cyabra, an Israeli analysis firm, highlighted that 20% of accounts discussing the Hamas attacks are inauthentic, with about 30,000 of these accounts disseminating pro-Hamas false information. Many of these fake profiles, including automated bots, are highly active on platforms like X and TikTok. Furthermore, BBC Verify noted the overwhelming number of false posts on X, including some from paid verified accounts, making it challenging for fact-checkers to combat the spread of misinformation. An account, falsely portraying itself as the Jerusalem Post, even claimed that the Israeli Prime Minister had been hospitalized. Even hacktivist groups are taking sides in the conflict - the Jerusalem Post announced that its website had become inaccessible due to ongoing “cyberattacks.” And while the news organization did not say who it believed was responsible, a pro-Russian group known as “Anonymous Sudan” has taken credit. The group “Ghosts of Palestine” also took credit for bringing down the websites of Israel’s Education Ministry and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Europe

• Today's Polish elections might shift the country's trajectory towards that of Hungary. Poland stands at a pivotal juncture with its upcoming parliamentary elections, evident in the stark contrast between the Civic Coalition's "March of a Million Hearts" in Warsaw and the simultaneous rally by the ruling populist party, Law and Justice (PiS), in Katowice. While the Civic Coalition, led by Donald Tusk, calls for national unity, PiS projects them as traitors, underscoring Tusk's supposed affiliations with Germany and Russia. Since 2015, PiS has exhibited a mix of right-wing cultural stances and left-leaning social welfare policies, demonstrating a political polarisation reminiscent of the U.S. and U.K. Their strategies ahead of the elections are marked by economic incentives and a controversial referendum, emphasising their intent to secure a third term. Significantly, PiS's rural-centric strategies, especially concerning grain exports and Ukraine relations, highlight their appeal to their primary base, contrasting the urban centres which lean towards the Civic Coalition. If PiS retains power, Poland may edge closer to an illiberal democracy, mirroring Hungary's trajectory under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the former Polish Prime Minister openly expressed his admiration for his Hungarian counterpart. “Viktor Orbán has demonstrated that in Europe things are possible," Kaczynski remarked in 2016. "You have given an example, and we are learning from your example.” Author Moises Naim encapsulates this aptly: “Autocracy spreads imitation."
• The EU and U.S. are uniting against heavily subsidized steel and aluminium mills from "non-market economies", predominantly targeting China. Stemming from trade tensions initiated by former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018, this collaboration seeks to protect both parties from China's surging production - the world's largest producer. An interim proposal suggests tariffs that echo Trump's 2018 rates: 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium imports. However, the initiative's alignment with World Trade Organization norms is questionable due to its discriminatory nature. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen leans towards bolstering ties with Washington against Beijing ("Decouple, not de-risk.") Meanwhile, EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell's China visit aims to directly address trade imbalances and enhance transparency and reciprocity in bilateral trade relations, next to tensions over topics like Taiwan, human rights and the war in Ukraine.

Must see/read

Amidst rising conflicts, some reports suggest that as many as 32 nations, encompassing 3.2 billion residents in conflict zones, are presently at war. As a result, military terminology can sometimes be challenging to decipher. Thankfully, The Economist offers an A to Z guide on military terms to assist.

Until next week Sunday! Thank you for reading.