The week of 2nd-6th September 2024- A Bumper week of data for G7

The first week of any month is always one of activity as there are several economic data releases that can move markets. Today is Labor Day in the US- happy holidays! But what a week we have in store from Tuesday onwards!?

Swiss inflation and GDP data are announced on Tuesday morning. Swiss inflation is low relative to the rest of Europe; a year-on-year print of 1.2% for August is on the cards. Swiss quarterly GDP was 0.6% for the first quarter. The Swiss will hope Q2 GDP is the same or better. In the afternoon US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August will be announced and a more bullish reading of 47.5 (vs 46.8 for July) is expected. Keep your eye out for ISM Manufacturing Employment data. An uptick in this from last month’s 43.4 bodes well for Non-Farm Payrolls later in the week.?

Wednesday morning kicks off with Australian GDP. A year on year reading for Q2 of 1% is forecast. In the afternoon the Bank of Canada is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of 1% to 4.25%.?

Thursday’s US ADP Employment change is likely to be more positive in August with expectations of a print of 145,000 new jobs created. US ISM Services PMI is likely to maintain an expansionary bias at 51.1 for August.?

We start Friday off with an estimate of Eurozone GDP data for the 2nd quarter which is expected to grow to 0.6% year on year. US Non-Farm Payrolls are eagerly awaited with August payrolls expected to bounce back to +165,000 new jobs created and the unemployment rate forecast to recede to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings bumping up to 3.7% will be worrisome for the Fed.??

The unemployment rate in Canada is expected to worsen to 6.5% despite the likelihood of 25,000 new jobs created.?

Plenty to look forward to with G7 and crosses likely to be active this week.?

Good Luck and Good trading!

Ben Robson?

Ben Robson is Head of Institutional E-FX at Swiss Finance Corporation. He is also the Amazon Best Selling Author of Currency Kings – How Billion traders Made their Fortune Trading Forex. McGraw Hill