Week 29

This week, right now. Week 29 (14 - 21 July)

Keeping you up to date on global affairs. Every weekend. In under a few minutes.

International

• Several top Democrats privately believe mounting pressure and poor poll results will soon persuade President Biden to withdraw from the presidential race. At 81 years old and currently isolating due to COVID-19, Biden faces increasing concerns about his age, public perception, and the negative impact his campaign could have on the party's chances in November. Despite his public determination to continue, influential figures like Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries advised him to step aside. They argue that Biden's continued candidacy could lead to a landslide victory for former President Trump, erasing Biden's legacy and jeopardising Democratic control of Congress. The pressure has reached intolerable levels, especially over the past few days, with Democrats fearing a post-Republican National Convention aftermath. Prominent Democrats, including former President Obama, have expressed their concerns either directly or through silence and public criticism from their aides. Biden's closest friends, some of whom initially urged him to fight on, now see his withdrawal as inevitable. They hope he will choose to step down voluntarily, preserving his achievements and allowing the party to field a stronger candidate.
• President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced plans for a second international summit on peace in Ukraine, set for November, and suggested that Russia should be invited. The first summit in Switzerland saw delegates from 92 countries but excluded Russia, which dismissed it. Russia mocked the event from a distance. China's absence ensured the summit wouldn't succeed in rallying major "global South" countries to isolate Russia. Brazil attended as an observer. Ultimately, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa withheld their signatures from the communique, despite contentious issues being omitted to gain broader support. After attending a NATO summit in Washington, Zelenskiy emphasized the need for a comprehensive plan by November. On the battlefield, Russian forces continue to advance in the east, while Ukraine bolsters its defenses with Western arms, including expected F-16 fighter jets. Zelenskiy acknowledged the incoming jets' impact but stressed the need for more to match Russia's air force. He also noted Ukraine's increasing mobilization and the need to expand training facilities to meet military demands.

Europe

• Viktor Orbán has stirred significant controversy as Hungary assumed the EU Council Presidency, prompting concerns about its impact on the EU’s internal operations and foreign policy. Despite lacking authority in foreign policy, Orbán's self-proclaimed "peace mission" to Kyiv, Moscow, Shusha, Beijing, and Washington has sparked debates over Hungary's suitability for the presidency. His actions, perceived as unauthorized representation of the EU, have led to calls within the Council for explanations. The Hungarian government defended the visits as bilateral, but this failed to convince most member states. Poland, backed by 16 members, demanded clarity, revealing Hungary’s secretive planning and misleading use of the EU presidency logo. The Council’s legal service found Orbán’s actions in violation of EU Treaties, suggesting breaches of competence and principles of solidarity and sincere cooperation. This situation has reignited discussions on possible actions against Hungary, including suspending or curtailing its presidency. Options range from activating Article 7 procedures to reshuffling the presidency schedule. How the EU addresses Orbán’s overreach will test its commitment to the rule of law and its credibility on the global stage, with significant implications for its internal and external stability.
• Ursula von der Leyen has successfully secured a second term as European Commission president by deftly balancing her political program to appeal to both conservatives and environmentalists. On Thursday, she achieved a comfortable victory, attaining 401 of the necessay 360 votes in the European Parliament. In her speech, von der Leyen emphasized the need for Europe to stay competitive in a rapidly changing global economy. Her program outlines a commitment to climate neutrality and the development of technologies essential for the future. This approach mirrors U.S. President Joe Biden’s tactic of presenting climate initiatives as economic necessities. Von der Leyen’s second-term agenda includes the Clean Industrial Deal, aimed at reducing industrial emissions, and measures to support climate-friendly tech manufacturing. Not everyone was convinced by von der Leyen's ambiguous stance, with the French Greens opposing her for lacking a clear commitment to the Green Deal, and Green NGOs expressing concern that economic and deregulation priorities might overshadow climate action. Despite this, the Greens appeared eager to join von der Leyen’s centrist coalition to block the far right, potentially compromising their principles.