The week of 28th October-1st November 2024- A blockbuster week for US data!

If you are following US data then this week has it all; 4 employment numbers, GDP, inflation metrics, Consumer Confidence, the ISM Manufacturing Index, 5 mega-stock earnings releases; the only thing missing is an interest rate decision, and this all in the week preceding a US election! There’s big data from around the World too which I will summarise below.?

Early Monday morning, Japanese equities shrugged off an indifferent election result as the ruling Liberal party lost its majority in parliament. USDJPY pushed up about 0.6%. There are no huge data releases on Monday. On Tuesday we receive the JOLTs job Openings report and US Consumer Confidence. JOLTs is expected slightly lower at 7.920M for September vs the previous month’s 8.040M. Analysts predict a slightly more sanguine consumer and a print of 99.2 (Oct) vs 98.7 (Sep) for the Confidence number. Alphabet (Google) will report earnings.?

Wednesday will be a busy day! First up, Australian Q3 CPI inflation. Expectations are for this to drop to 2.3% from 3.8%. German employment numbers follow with the unemployment rate likely to rise to 6.1%. Straight after we have German Q3 GDP; a drop is expected to -0.3% y.o.y. Next up is a Swiss National Bank statement and a UK Government Budget and simultaneously Eurozone GDP which is expected to post 0.8% y.o.y for Q3. In the afternoon US Q3 GDP (exp 3.0% q.o.q) follows ADP employment figures which are expected to be slightly more downbeat at 101k (oct) vs 143k (Sep). German CPI is out next with forecasts for a y.o.y print of 1.8% for October. Microsoft and Meta will report earnings.?

Thursday is no less busy. We start with Australian Retail Sales which are expected to drop to 0.3% m.o.m for September. A Bank of Japan interest rate decision follows. Consensus is for unchanged. An ECB economic bulletin and Eurozone CPI (exp 2.6% y.o.y Oct) complete the morning’s numbers. In the afternoon US PCE numbers are out and the Fed will hope the headline number remains at 2.2% for September. Canadian GDP is released simultaneously and this is likely to fall to 0.1% (m.o.m Aug).? Chicago PMI is out next with hopes for a more positive reading of 47.1(Oct) vs 46.6 (Sep). Thursday’s big earnings releases are Apple, Amazon and also Mastercard.?

Friday starts with the Australian Producer Price Index which like CPI earlier in the week, is expected to drop. Indications are for the q.o.q number to fall to 0.7% for Q3. Next up Swiss CPI (exp flat or 0% m.om for October).? Everybody awaits US Non-Farm payrolls in the afternoon. After last month’s stellar print of 254k, expectations are for payrolls to drop to 111K for October, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.1% and average hourly earnings set to fall a touch to 0.3%. If payrolls weren’t enough excitement, the last main figures of the week come from the Institute of Supply Management. Their Manufacturing Index is forecast to rise to 47.5 for October. Watch out for manufacturing employment which posted 43.9 but will be of less significance as it follows Non- Farm Payrolls.?

Ben Robson?

Ben Robson is Head of Institutional E-FX at Swiss Finance Corporation. He is also the Amazon Best Selling Author of Currency Kings – How Billion traders Made their Fortune Trading Forex. McGraw Hill