Week 24

This week, right now. Week 24 (10 - 16 June)

Keeping you up to date on global affairs. Every weekend. In under a few minutes.

International

• Russia announced the second stage of nuclear drills with Belarusian troops, citing Western threats. Russia claims the U.S. and its European allies are pushing the world toward nuclear confrontation by arming Ukraine. Since invading Ukraine on February 24, 2022, President Vladimir Putin has suggested using nuclear weapons in extreme situations, which the West dismisses as sabre-rattling. Last month, Russia linked its nuclear drills to provocative statements from Western officials. The first stage of drills involved Russian troops practicing with Iskander missiles and the air force with Kinzhal (meaning "dagger') hypersonic missiles. According to the defence ministry, the second stage involves joint training with Belarusian units on non-strategic nuclear weapons. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed the importance of these exercises due to daily provocations from European capitals and Washington. Putin stated Russia does not need nuclear weapons to secure victory in Ukraine but did not rule out changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine. The U.S. says it has seen no change in Russia's strategic posture but takes Moscow's nuclear threats seriously. Both nations hold about 88% of the world's nuclear weapons. The U.S. has around 100 non-strategic B61 nuclear weapons in Europe, while Russia reportedly has about 1,558 non-strategic nuclear warheads.
• Israeli minister Benny Gantz announced his resignation from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's emergency (or 'war') government on Sunday, withdrawing the only centrist power from Netanyahu's far-right coalition. Gantz's departure doesn't pose an immediate threat to the government but leaves Netanyahu reliant on hardliners with no end to the Gaza war ('exit stratgey') and potential escalation with Lebanese Hezbollah. Last month, Gantz set a June 8 deadline for Netanyahu to present a clear post-war strategy for Gaza, where Israel has been conducting a devastating military offensive against Hamas. Netanyahu dismissed the ultimatum. Gantz stated that political considerations were clouding crucial strategic decisions in Netanyahu's cabinet, preventing Israel from a "true victory." Netanyahu responded on social media, telling Gantz it was no time to abandon the battlefront. With Gantz's departure, Netanyahu losses the support of a centrist bloc that has broadened governmental support domestically and internationally.

Europe

• The European Parliament election results highlighted significant winners and losers. Ursula von der Leyen emerged strong, with a potential coalition of Socialists, liberals, and her center-right EPP, giving her more than the 361 votes needed for a second term. The far-right had a notable night, with France's National Rally forcing Macron’s snap election. Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy party saw substantial gains, finishing at the top of the polls (28% of total). Far-right parties also led in Austria (27% of total,) tied for first in the Netherlands, and came second in Germany and Romania. "Belgium drifts to the right — but not far right. An expected extremist landslide didn’t materialize." Socialists maintained their position, coming second in Spain and Italy, and a close third in France. They also won in Sweden and possibly edged out the center-right in Portugal. Roberta Metsola of Malta achieved a personal victory, securing an extra seat for her party and receiving the highest vote count since Malta joined the EU. Conversely, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz faced setbacks, with Macron's party coming in second in France and Scholz's SPD enduring its worst result in over a century in Germany. Péter Magyar emerged as a prominent opposition leader in Hungary with 30% of the vote; meaning Viktor Orbán performed below expectations.
• French President Emmanuel Macron announced a snap election after his Renaissance party suffered a defeat to the far-right National Rally in the European Parliament elections. This surprise move could lead to Jordan Bardella - a 28-year-old political wunderkind - becoming France’s youngest prime minister. French voters will return to the polls on June 30 and July 7 to elect a new national parliament. Marine Le Pen - who says to back Bardella - used her address to warn the EU, framing the election results as a victory for patriotic movements against globalism. Bardella, if elected, would govern in a “cohabitation” with Macron, a historically challenging arrangement. Macron’s supporters view the snap election as a bold move to counter the far-right, while others see it as a potential gamble. Macron has a history of making significant political bets but said he won't resign “whatever the result."