WEEK 18 TOP 5: DISRUPTION TO SUPPLY CHAIN WATCHLIST No.184

-(Following No.183) On April 26, the Houthi forces attacked the MSC Orion while transiting the Indian Ocean, 300-400 nautical miles southeast of the Horn of Africa. This incident marked their first successful maritime attack in this region, following their March announcement to extend missile operations.??

On April 29, the MV Cyclades also suffered damage from a missile strike, although the vessel and crew remained safe.??

Escalating their threats, the Houthi leadership emphasized targeting vessels headed to Israeli ports, specifically mentioning their capacity to strike in "any reachable area" within the Mediterranean. This declaration signals a possible expansion of their maritime assault range into critical commercial shipping lanes.??

Concurrently, the Turkish Trade Minister announced on May 4 an immediate halt to all trade dealings with Israel, effective until a stable ceasefire and humanitarian aid conditions are met in Gaza.?

Disruption: cargo flow between Turkey and Israel is suspended, potential Houthi attacks expanding geographically??

- Massive cyclone Hidaya is expected to make landfall southeast of Dar es Salaam on May 4, late in the afternoon local time. The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued warnings for heavy rainfall and strong winds across Kenya and Tanzania through May 6. These conditions are anticipated to exacerbate the ongoing recovery from recent floods and landslides, leading to more severe disruptions.?

Disruption: potential for Dar Es Salaam port closure and extensive flooding in central Kenya, including Nairobi, impacting transportation and local economies.?

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- Congestion has escalated at UK borders following the second phase implementation of the Post-Brexit Border Target Operating Model (BTOM). The only 24/7 border facility, Sevington site, has been particularly affected due to a glitch in the automatic license verification system, leading to significant truck backlogs and shipment delays.?

Disruption: delays and congestion at Sevington, impacting trucking operations into the UK and potentially broader supply chain issues.?

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- (Following No.176) In Haiti, gang violence has escalated in Port-au-Prince following recent changes in leadership by the Presidential Transitional Council. The national police ended a blockade at the Varreux Terminal on May 1, essential for the country's oil distribution. Caribbean Port Services has also indefinitely halted operations at the Port-au-Prince International Marine Terminal after a security breach and looting. Additionally, significant disruptions at major airports, including Toussaint Louverture International Airport (PAP) and Cap-Haitien International Airport (CAP), have limited flight options, with PAP's reopening for commercial flights indefinitely postponed.?

Disruption: continued unrest is likely to maintain closures of major ports and airports, exacerbating shortages of essential supplies and restricting travel and transport

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-(Following No.180)? More than 9,000 employees of Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) have voted in favor of a strike mandate, with a potential strike or lockout commencing as early as May 22, following the end of the conciliation period on May 1. This dispute may lead to significant logistical challenges, impacting major ports and transportation services across Canada. Both parties are now in a legally required cooling-off period, with negotiations potentially resuming as early as May 13.?

Disruption: potential strike or lockout from May 22 could severely impact operations at key ports and delay transportation services nationwide, leading to logistical challenges