Wealth, prosperity and power

Half of the public expect poverty and the wealth gap to grow under the government's first term, according to new polling that we have carried out with the Policy Institute

Summary of the findings

Around half the public expect the number of people living in poverty (52%) and the gap between richest and poorest (45%) to have increased by the end of the government’s current term, according to polling by Opinium on behalf of the Fairness Foundation and the Policy Institute at King’s College London, which underscores the scale of the challenge Labour faces as it looks to restore confidence in the economy.?

Only one in seven people think poverty (14%) or the wealth gap (13%) will reduce within this Parliament.?The polling, which is based on a nationally representative survey of 2,050 UK adults, also finds the public are also more likely to think that by 2029 their own standard of living will have decreased (33%) or stayed the same (34%), rather than increased (19%).

And more expect funding for public services to fall (32%) than rise (26%), while there is little consensus on what will happen to the rate of economic growth, with a quarter believing it will increase (27%), that it will stay the same (27%), and that it will decrease (26%).?

Economic success will be key to improving faith in the political system, but the public are nearly four times as likely to expect trust in government to decrease rather than increase (52% vs 14%) over the lifetime of this Parliament. Labour voters are almost as pessimistic as Conservative voters about some economic prospects – though Reform voters are often more pessimistic still.?

And the very rich are perceived to be more powerful than national governments – a continuation of a shift in views seen for the first time last year.

Detailed findings

Labour voters are nearly as pessimistic as Conservative voters on some measures, but Reform voters are often more pessimistic still

44% of Labour voters expect poverty to have increased by the end of the government’s first term, and 40% think the level of economic inequality between the richest and poorest in society will have risen – similar to the 51% and 48% of Conservative voters who say the same, respectively, about these outcomes.

However, Labour voters are more likely than Conservatives to think the rate of economic growth will increase (44% vs 24%), that funding for public services will rise (41% vs 28%), and that their own standard of living will improve (28% vs 17%).

And while Labour voters are more inclined than Conservative voters to say public trust in government will improve (28% vs 10%), they are still more likely to think trust will decline (37%).

62% of Reform voters think the number of people living in poverty will have risen by the end of the government’s current term – a greater share than among the public overall or voters for either of the two main parties.?

Similarly, roughly half (48%) of Reform voters predict their own standard of living will decline, compared with 38% of Conservative voters and 24% of Labour voters.

But Reform voters are most pessimistic about what will happen to public trust, with three-quarters (75%) expecting it to fall – higher than among the public as a whole (52%), Conservative voters (66%) or Labour voters (37%).

Higher crime and the wealthy unfairly influencing government policy are seen as top risks of rising wealth inequality

Around four in 10 people say, if wealth inequality in the UK were to rise over the next few years, increasing levels of crime (42%) and very wealthy people having an unfair influence on government policies (41%) are likely to be negative impacts – the top answers given.

However, similar proportions also say declining levels of trust in democracy and politics (37%), worsening levels of mental health (37%) and increased power differences between high- and low-income areas of the UK (37%) are likely.

The very rich are still seen as more powerful than national governments

A third (34%) of the public rank the very rich, such as the top 1%, as having the most power in society, compared with a quarter (24%) who feel national governments are most powerful.

These figures are only slightly changed from last year, when 39% put the very rich as most powerful – which marked a shift from 2018, when national governments (33%) were perceived as having greater power than the super-rich (29%).

The public see little chance of a change in dynamic: they are most likely to think the very rich will still be most powerful in 2030, while two-thirds say they are concerned about the distribution of power between them and other key groups in Britain today (65%) and by 2030 (63%).

Most of the public say the gap between the wealthy and those with little wealth is too large

Six in 10 (60%) believe the gap between those with lots of wealth and those with little wealth is too large – although this is down from seven in 10 (72%) in 2023.

And between 2023 and 2024, both sets of voters for the two main parties have become less likely to say the wealth gap in Britain is too large, in part reflecting changing voter bases between elections. For example, seven in 10 (69%) Labour voters say the gap is too large – down from 88%.

Our take

This polling underscores the complexity of public attitudes about wealth and wealth inequality. People have an intuitive sense that wealth inequality is getting worse and is unfair in terms of both its causes and its consequences – even if the true extent of wealth inequality and its impacts on our economy, society and democracy is not widely recognised.

At the same time, however, there is deep cynicism about whether politicians can turn things around. Overcoming this will be challenging, but if the government can improve people’s living standards while addressing their deeply held sense of unfairness, there is a chance that the pessimistic public mood can be lifted.

The scale of the challenge is significant. When we compare people’s views of what should happen with what they think will happen, a stark gap emerges. For example, 60% of Britons think the wealth gap is already too large (i.e. should be reduced), but 45% expect it to grow even wider over the next five years.

Survey details

Opinium surveyed 2,050 UK adults aged 18+ online between 16 and 18 October 2024. Results are weighted to be nationally and politically representative.

Read the report (PDF)

Webinar at noon today with Torsten Bell

Great Britain? How We Get Our Future Back – with Torsten Bell MP

Monday 4 November 2024, 12:00 to 13:00, Zoom

What does the future hold for Britain, and how can we reclaim our prosperity?

In his latest book, Great Britain? How We Get Our Future Back, economist and politician Torsten Bell offers his vision for revitalising the UK's economy and society.

A former Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation and now Labour MP for Swansea West, Bell dissects the economic stagnation that has gripped Britain for over a decade, exploring how this prolonged period of low growth has impacted various segments of society – and what we can do about it.

Join us for the next event in our Fair Society series with the Policy Institute at King’s College London, as we discuss Bell’s book and his ideas for how to raise living standards and create a more equal country.

Speakers:

• Torsten Bell, Member of Parliament for Swansea West, former Director of the Resolution Foundation
• Zo? Billingham, Director, IPPR North
• Bobby Duffy, Director, the Policy Institute at King’s College London (chair)
• David Hope, Senior Lecturer in Political Economy, King’s College London
• Gaby Hinsliff, Columnist at the Guardian

Register for the webinar