Wealth planning opportunities arise as interest rates decline

Two-and-a-half years have passed since the Federal Reserve (Fed) began increasing interest rates. The goal was to tighten financial conditions for consumers and businesses by enough to choke off the high inflation prevailing at the time. Inflation has nearly returned to normal, but now the labor market is softening, so the Fed has recently begun cutting interest rates in a bid to ease financial conditions across the economy.

Many people began second-guessing opportunities and putting financial plans on hold back in 2022 as borrowing costs began to rise. Now, the prospect of high-but-falling rates over the coming months may offer a window to resurrect those plans or consider new opportunities.

The two essential ingredients for effective planning around interest rate trends are 1) a thorough understanding of the outlook for rates and 2) a checklist covering the types of opportunities that increase in appeal depending on the direction of rates. We’ve brought together our experts from investment management and financial planning to explore both aspects.

Our outlook for interest rates

When we think about the direction of interest rates, we also need to consider the term—or borrowing period—in question. The Fed has the most influence over short-term rates, and its control dissipates further out along the yield curve, where other factors contribute to the direction and level of longer-term rates.

Short-term rates are poised to decline in 2024 by 1.0% based on the Fed’s latest projections and markets are pricing 1.25% in cuts this year. The Fed projects another 1.0% in cuts for 2025, while markets are currently pricing just under 1.25% in cuts next year. These forecasts are fluid and dependent on economic developments.

Typically, shorter-term rates tend to fall by more than longer-term rates when the Fed starts to cut. Longer-term rates peaked about a year ago and have been falling in earnest following an increase this past spring. In essence, the decline in longer-term rates over the last six months reflects anticipation of the softening economic growth that recently compelled the Fed to begin cutting short-term rates. The question is how much of that anticipation is already reflected in the current level of longer-term rates, and how much will follow as the Fed continues to cut.

It's an important question because a lot of borrowing and credit extension is indexed to longer-term rates. Mortgages, for example, derive their pricing based on a spread—or extra yield to compensate for prepayment risk—over long-term rates. Mortgage rates peaked late last year at the highest level since the late 1990s, and while they’re starting to come down, borrowers may not necessarily find them appealing just yet.

Given the projections for gradually declining rates over the next 12 months, it makes sense to look at potential wealth planning strategies presented by that environment. Certain wealth transfer strategies are more attractive when rates are lower. Also, using debt as a tool for strategic wealth planning is often an option, for example taking on debt to gain liquidity or to mitigate taxes.

Using debt to manage taxes and liquidity

A lower-rate environment is a good time to review your overall debt, consider consolidating different loans or, depending on your circumstances, refinance a mortgage. In some cases, using debt strategically can help you achieve a range of financial goals.

For example, let’s assume you’ve built enough wealth that you can afford to buy a $1 million home (or other significant asset of choice) with cash. However, when interest rates are low, you have the option to take out a mortgage or low-interest rate loan for the balance. Utilizing a loan under these circumstances could provide you with several benefits:

• Avoid capital gains.?If your $1 million is currently invested, the loan avoids the need to liquidate your portfolio. This could avoid capital gains taxes.
• Mortgage interest deduction.?If you’re buying a home, under current tax rules, you can deduct the interest you pay on home mortgage debt with balances up to $750,000. The property must be a qualified residence. Mortgage interest is an itemized deduction which effectively decreases your interest expense by lowering your income taxes. To benefit, your total itemized deduction must exceed the standard deduction.
• Maintain liquidity.?By not using your liquidity to buy something, your portfolio will still be available to meet other cash needs.
• Larger portfolio.?When you borrow, your net worth is the same on day one. But if your investments appreciate, your balance sheet has potential to grow at a larger rate. For example, if you retain an $800,000 portfolio after buying the house and both values grow by 10%, that’s $80,000 of extra value you would not have had if you bought the house with cash. Of course, if your assets depreciate, your balance sheet also shrinks at a quicker rate. If the value of your home and portfolio both went down by 10%, your net worth would go down by 18% since your debt doesn’t decrease when your assets lose value.

Lower interest rates may benefit your wealth transfer strategy

Low interest rates also create some opportunities for wealth transfer planning. In particular, the following strategies can be more effective.

Grantor Retained Annuity Trust (GRAT). A GRAT allows you to place assets into a trust and remove future appreciation from your estate. You receive a regular annuity payment for a specified number of years, with the remaining assets passing to beneficiaries with no or little estate or gift tax liability.

• When a GRAT works best: A GRAT is most effective when interest rates are low, and when you fund the trust with assets that you expect will appreciate over the term of the trust. The low-rate environment is important because the trust assets must grow at a rate that exceeds an interest rate known as the Applicable Federal Rate (AFR), often called the “hurdle rate,” which is set by the IRS. If asset growth surpasses the hurdle rate, any remaining asset in the trust above the amount of the initial taxable gift are transferred tax free to beneficiaries at the end of the term. Note that if the assets don’t outperform the hurdle rate, the original value of the assets will be returned to you over the period of the trust. In this case, there would be no excess appreciation to pass to your heirs.
• Why not gift the assets outright? Compared to gifting assets outright, a GRAT can reduce the taxable amount of your gift because you’re only gifting what’s left at the end of the trust term (that is, minus what you’ve received back from the annuity). The appreciation on assets in the trust transfers to heirs tax-free. If you gifted the assets outright, it would be taxed at its original face value.

Charitable Lead Annuity Trust (CLAT). A CLAT is similar to a GRAT, except the annuity payment during the trust term is made to charity. At the end of the trust’s term, the remainder interest must be distributed to one or more non-charitable beneficiaries (usually family members). Other benefits include:

• Tax-free transfer to beneficiaries.?Like a GRAT, the property contributed to a CLAT is assumed to grow at a rate equal or more than a pre-set IRS interest rate (the “hurdle rate”) that is set when the trust is created. And like a GRAT, a CLAT works best in a low-interest rate environment because asset appreciation in excess of the hurdle rate passes tax free to the designated beneficiaries at the end of the trust’s term.
• Minimizing gift tax costs.?The creation of a CLAT triggers a taxable gift, calculated on the value of the assets contributed to the trust. However, you (the donor) are allowed a charitable deduction on the value of the amounts passing to charity and only the assets calculated to remain at the end of the CLAT’s term are subject to gift tax. If structured as a grantor CLAT, it is possible for the donor to receive an income tax deduction.

Intra-family loans. In a low-interest-rate environment, a loan to family members can be an attractive estate planning tool. The loan can be used to help a family member who needs money for a range of reasons, such as buying a home or starting a business. If the borrower is able to earn a rate of return on the borrowed funds that exceeds the applicable interest rate being paid, which is more likely when short-term interest rates are lower, the borrower keeps the excess without a transfer tax cost.

If the loan recipient invests the money and the investment returns on the borrowed funds exceed the interest rate charged, the excess growth is passed to your family member without gift or estate taxes. This strategy preserves your lifetime estate tax exemption amount as long as the loan is structured properly. Note that the principal and interest owed to you will still be included in your taxable estate because the principal and interest are legally required to be paid to you.

Planning amid change

As financial conditions change, it’s important to review your wealth planning strategies to ensure they continue to meet your goals and capture potential opportunities. Our advisors are always available to help you evaluate and adjust your plans as the world, and your circumstances, evolve.

Next steps:

• Find more insights from our wealth planning experts
• Need guidance? Speak to an advisor today

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