Weak signals and liquid strategies for 2023

Last December 24th, a friend sent a photo from her holidays in Switzerland to wish a Merry Christmas. She was happy, but something was missing: there was no snow in the village. There had always been snow in this time of the year, adding magic to her Christmas experience, but this year she had to put up with rain instead. Climate is changing and so seems to be doing life as we know it. So, let’s get ready for an interesting 2023.

An economic crisis is zelously announced for the coming year, tectonic crashes are changing the equilibrium of great powers with winds of more war blowing ever more strongly, and too many of us are voting lousy populist politicians that will mess up and create problems. As a brand strategist, I’ve asked myself what should we make of all this turmoil and what opportunities does it bear. Never before brand strategy has been so important for the success of business, because in a fast changing context it is of utmost importance that organizations act (and react) with some sort of vision in mind. Nevertheless, in times of tumultuous change, it may be foolish to think that leaders can predict what type of context they will be playing in, five years from now. So it becomes a must that CEOs and executive teams identify some weak signals, conjugate them with a vision or purpose, and draw some conclusions that help them anticipate the yet unpredictable challenges and opportunities ahead.

In this article I am offering a list of seven signals that I sense will have a strong impact in shaping the societal context, the economy and the consumer’s behavior in 2023 and beyond. I have composed the list on the basis of research I have conducted in recent projects, the observation of the evolution of some markets, my readings and -yes- my gut feelings. So some of what I am writing can be labeled as opinion, but I offer that I have made my opinions as educated as I possibly could. Let’s dig into the seven weak signals I have identified (and I hope you can think of some more that I have ignored).

The search for meaning

Talent retention is certainly one of the great headaches of Chief People Officers. Young employees are demanding on their employers. Only ten years ago a ping pong table and a yoga class could mean a lot for the newcomers in the company, but things have changed and they are now checking that the values of the organization are aligned with theirs and that the purpose of the company is inspirational and truly pursued.

In the same tune, a growing cohort of consumers understand the power of voting with their credit card and are willing to do so. Although The Economist claimed that consumer boycotts show little impact on sales, the trend is growing and a brand strategist knows that there are submerged costs in negative publicity that sales alone do not capture.

The sociologist Zygmunt Bauman noted that an aspect of the liquidity of our society is reflected in the adoption of material goods as source of meaning and a signifier of our identity. Brands must acknowledge the quest for meaning that comes from both within the organization and without in the market and respond with visions that inspire and uplift their internal and external stakeholders. Defining a purpose that truly represents the essence of the organization and building a culture of authenticity around it, may be a good start to tackle this signal.

Uncertainty and fear

Only a very few years ago we had to make an effort to retain the meaning of the acronym VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity). Soon we discovered the existence of “black swans” and had to add prefixes to VUCA. I am guilty of using Hyper-VUCA to describe the acceleration of uncertainty in the business context. Black swans are meant to be rare, but we seem to be invaded by a hoard of them, so VUCA and its cousins fall short of describing the situation we find ourselves in, today. The sense of discomfort that we felt in the good old VUCA times is now somehow more intense and the media seem to be cultivating a new feeling: fear. Is it by design? Or is it the natural evolution of the information business into a gigantic entertainment industry that obeys the laws of storytelling and thus seeks drama and tension at all costs? Difficult to say, but the result is undoubtable. We live in times of fear, times that call us to freeze or flee, reacting instinctively and shooting from the hip. This is no-good for businesses. The risk of a purely reactive attitude is that we just try new things in the hope that one of them is right. Leaders need to do exactly the opposite: they need to assess the risks and draw possible countermeasures. Now, because the future is foggy as never before, we should work on different scenarios and build action sets that match the challenges as well as they fit our vision.

Me me me

The progressive fall of traditional values and the rise of social media is generating a radical change in the way we connect with others and understand life. Social media, especially, help us build worlds of heroes that live lives full of riches and pleasure. And we want to imitate them. Not only the obvious “heroes of trash”, but also the successful masters of purposeful living infer that we must accomplish goals that are related to our own success, our own fulfillment and our own perfection. Me, me, me.

Brand strategists need to look at this reality. We are enclosing ourselves in private worlds that are becoming more virtual by the day. We impose rules to the game that is played in those micro-worlds and often those rules make us unhappy, because we compare ourselves to the top-guys that made it and do not understand “why not me?”. The market is full of brands that are serving this new culture, and there is plenty of space for alternative, more conscious visions. Hedonism can be used also to create territories for self-betterment and connection to others.

The fall of the gods

One year ago we would have little doubts. Elon Musk was a white-horse hero that was showing how humanity can fix the mess we have created. But this year the man has morphed into something different: he is taking steps and saying things that leave many of us with a question mark in our mind. The twitter saga has cast a shadow on the shining smile of the genius entrepreneur and now we imagine things about him that evoque some of the negative personal transformations we read about in novels or saw in movies. In myths and in storytelling (an expression of mythology) this type of evolution has a name: tragedy. We all hope that it will not be the case and Elon reveals himself as a positive player on a global scale.

Other transformations have occurred in recent years and 2022 has made them very visible. Mark Zuckerberg saw the value of Meta’s stocks fall by 70%. This could be seen as the result of business dynamics and some could also interpret it as the tangible measure of the falling of a star. Sam Bankman-Fried’s story made shocking news recently, making a villain out of a rising star of the digital money universe. The fraudulent motives of his fall echoed those of Elizabeth Holmes, ex-CEO of Theranos, who this year was sentenced more that eleven years in prison.

Role models in the business world are becoming a less reliable reference for our dreams of greatness. Especially our myth of Silicon Valley is appearing as delusional in some degree. The narratives of surge and victory that we so much love are put in jeopardy by some of the nastiest greed-driven stories that we could ever imagine.

Luckily, we also have some examples on the other end of the spectrum. Yvon Chouinard, the founder of apparel retailer Patagonia, delighted many of us with his decision to donate all his shares to a foundation that is now the majority stakeholder of the corporation and has a goal to “save the planet”. Chouinard’s move is coherent with what he has done and said along his entire career, and represents a call for a better capitalism. With his unprecedented and bold decisions, he is inspiring many more players to re-think business.

Brands and their strategists can respond to the fall of gods with a proactive and assertive focus on activities that carry the refreshing perfume of authenticity and responsibility. There is a space for firms that take a stand and truly commit to doing good as well as pursuing their own prosperity. Unilever is an example, Salesforce another, Spanish energy retailer Holaluz yet another, and the list can go on for a long while.

Inclusivity beyond gender

Inclusivity was one of the big trends of 2022 and it is to continue in 2023.

Age, race and ethnicity, sexual orientation and gender identity, physical and mental ability. We have discovered that there are many fields in which we can claim equality and denounce discrimination. And more often than not, we find ourselves on the side of one of the contenders. There are two forces at play: politically correctness and polarization. We make all efforts to walk within the lines of respect for all diversities and feel a natural desire to adhere to a certain point of view that helps us make sense of our own identity.

Brand strategists must acknowledge that this is a minefield. It is very easy to upset someone who embraces an idea, a vision or a worldview, because those are identity builders and we all react forcefully when our identity is the point of discussion. Taking a stance for inclusivity, in whatever field, must be a very thoughtful exercise because we might find ourself in need to defend our position convincingly. The strategist must make sure that any position taken is coherent with the true essence of the brand and in line with its values.

Biohack and transhumanism

An Italian scientist giving a keynote speech on youth mentioned something that caught my attention. Some of her friends, “normal people” as she put it, told her, casually during a dinner, that they received blood transfusion in order to hack their aging process and stay young. Biohacking is not science fiction any more. Yuval Noah Harari told us that it was coming: it’s here. Harari talks about transhumanism. The idea that we can add powers to our bodies and minds. It is something that goes far beyond science, invading the fields of moral, anthropology and spirituality. Biohacking spans over a vast array of applications. It can help correct perceived body imperfections, overcome disabilities and enhance abilities. In the future, we will certainly debate biohacking in terms of inequality: it’s something that not every pocket will be able to afford. But a strategist must consider what impact the possibility of changing our physical reality can have on everyone’s psychology. We are quickly changing the idea that we have of our identity. Many of us are disassociating our persona from our body and this had never happened before.

What this means for the strategist is still to be understood, but we need to capture this elusive yet enormously important new reality to envision what relationship a brand will have to build with it’s public.

Climate crisis and scrutiny

The photograph that I received on December 24th from my friend is a testimony of a crisis that only a few ill-intentioned individuals still dare to deny. The changes are now visible, undeniable and in most cases undesirable. We all have learned to distrust governments and supra-national organizations when they claim to be working toward a solution and we are looking elsewhere. Increasingly, we ask big corporations and small enterprises to be part of the solution. Young generations have become very demanding and utterly skeptical, scrutinizing the words and deeds of business organizations and taking active roles in highlighting the shortcomes.

Brands have an opportunity to find a spot in the heart of their public by helping to overcome the climate crisis and the sustainability of our life on this planet. But this must be done in authenticity and with passion. David Aaker, in his last book The Future of Purpose-Driven Branding, warns that to win in our times, a business must attack societal challenges with signature social programs, integrate them in the business strategy, and build inspiring, credible signature social brands. In Aaker’s vision, business must embrace a social challenge (and the climate crisis is at the top of the list) with the impetus that comes only from believing that it is essentially linked to the existence of the organization and the leadership must make it central to the business. The era of ticking the box is over. Only the brands that are truly and sincerely committed to participating into the solution of social challenges and the climate crisis will pass the consumers’ scrutiny and win their hearts. The rest will be throwing marketing money from the window.

Bonus signal: AI is here, what should we do?

Chat.openai is a mind-blowing website. It is the evolution of a chatbox, mixed with the incarnation of HAL, the computer that starred in Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey. Ask the machine to explain something and it will do so. Ask it to make a menu for your post-Christmas holidays diet and there you have it. And this is only the start. The point for marketers is that there is a milestone reached: AI is now in our lives and it has already pervaded much of our daily existences. No brand can ignore this new reality, because it impacts the way our brains work. We will very soon start to demand organizations to do things in ways that facilitate our lives and will discriminate those who fail to respond to our requests. At the same time, we will grow more skeptical and more weary of those organizations that are not able to establish a truly personal relationship with us. Be it through a machine or a highly personal human touch, we are going to ask be treated as majesties and revered as gods.

I am a brand strategist and I believe that business should help people to be happier. So I work with corporate and personal brands on a journey to the next level, with powerful strategies and inspiring narratives.?