Are we in a voice computing winter?

Amazon Alexa had the fastest ramp from inception to mass adoption of any consumer computing platform in history. Faster than PC, faster than mobile.

However, compared to smartphones and PCs, Alexa is barely being used.

While 60% of American households have at least one Alexa-enabled device, we can measure the average daily usage in minutes, not hours. That leaves Amazon with a problem: they're spending billions of dollars a year improving the Alexa platform. They don't make money on the devices, and the computing platform isn't currently monetizable.

Now the question becomes, is #AmazonAlexa a bridge to nowhere, or are we just in a voice computing winter?

In my opinion, we are in a voice computing winter, but the future still looks bright. And here's why:

Voice searches continue to increase and become a widely adopted consumer behavior. Last year 20% of all searches from Google's mobile app were voice-based, and most were from the younger generations.

As the world's largest product search engine, Amazon must own the access points to product search, including voice.

This is both a defensive and offensive move. Since Amazon doesn't own a current-generation computing platform (PC and mobile), they must own a next-gen computing platform (voice). If not, they risk getting boxed out by Apple (AR/VR), Google (voice), and Meta (AR/VR).

As the underlying AI improves, the Alexa platform will become more dynamic and more valuable to consumers' lives. Combined with more IoT access points, integration in one's car and wearable devices, Amazon can finally realize its vision of always-on ubiquitous computing.