Are we on an uncontrolled path to global war?

If you, like millions of others worldwide, are watching the carnage in Israel unfold and believe it is a problem “over there,” you would be wrong. There is a strategic possibility that this spark will spawn major regional conflicts. These will be unlike World War I and II, where partner nations join, and lines are drawn. It has a greater potential for massive regional conflict and competing strategic objectives—specifically, the Middle East, the South China Sea, and Europe.

I lay out some possible scenarios and the complexities. I do this because we have not paid enough attention to the global strategic imperatives. Are these scenarios inevitable? I hope not, but we need to start considering them because there are no short-term or easy fixes.

#1: Israel will enter major conflict on all sides…Gaza (Hamas), West Bank, Syria, Iran, Lebanon (Hezbollah). These are not the conflicts from 1967 and 1973. This conflict will be extremely bloody and urban. Tens of thousands will die, deepening the hatred for even more decades. The media is focused on the loss of life over the last four days, as they should. But people also ask the wrong questions, such as, was this an intelligence failure? The main question should be, “Why now?” Why did Hamas, proxied by Iran, launch such a complex operation with such brutality that makes the Israeli response almost predictable? It was to generate such intense emotion and fear that Israel is forced, in defending itself, to respond in kind.

In addition, Israel and Saudi Arabia were extremely close to signing a peace agreement. Iran likely sees this as an imminent threat. Iran also knows the world would respond to the attacks on Israel with support and declarations that Israel has a right to self-defense – all correct. But the world has short-term memory, and when thousands die in the coming weeks, those perspectives will change, and there will also be rightful calls for restraint. However, Iran also recognizes that this will raise support by extremists worldwide, potentially fracturing support for Israel or a willingness to be involved, especially with so many countries experiencing a rise in nationalism.

There are even greater strategic problems beyond what I’ve described. Israel has declared war. What does this mean? Will it just be on Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah? If Israel decides it’s time to go after the source of these threats, Iran, what does that look like? Will the U.S. and others in the region let them go alone? Let’s assume the U.S. will not and militarily supports the conflict. This could set conditions for the next strategic domino to fall.

#2: China sees it as an opportunity to invade Taiwan. The Chinese are preparing to invade Taiwan; there is little doubt about that. Their preparation has included massive military exercises toward these objectives, the build-up of forces, and expansion and forward positioning in the South China Sea. This isn’t a new activity; it has been happening for years. Even if we can point to impending military action as the world community did of Russia in Ukraine, would it curtail the Chinese ambitions?

If the reclamation of Taiwan is a strategic objective of China, there is likely not a better time to seize it. With the U.S. and likely other Western powers preoccupied again in the Middle East, they will not likely be able to stop an invasion, leaving Pacific nations to fend for themselves, but unlikely to fight China on their own.

If globally, a coalition determines China must leave Taiwan or face being expelled militarily as Iraq was from Kuwait, China will not concede. This now becomes a war on the scale of World War II; in the U.S., this means a draft among a population where only 25% of service-aged males are fit for military service. There is a litany of other challenges beyond this and well beyond the scope of this post. Does the U.S. comprehend those, and are we ready? This leads to the third strategic implication.

#3 The U.S. no longer holds a position of global influence, let alone power. This starts with such extreme polarization that our congress cannot perform its role – passing legislation – to support strategic issues. They will be consumed by tactical issues at home and focused on consolidating political power at the expense of all else. I wish it were not true, but it seems an uncomfortable truth. This will have several significant impacts.

Monetary and military support for Ukraine will stop and likely fall to Russia. This will strike a lack of confidence within the NATO Alliance, and those nations will look internally versus the West for interests that do not include the U.S. Furthermore, a conflict in the South China Sea will cause an immeasurable economic crisis. A government that can barely keep its government open in the world's largest economy could lead to shifts in global markets and currencies that may shift away from the U.S.

We should support and pray for those innocent people who have died and are about to die. But nations need to start thinking about the hyper-volatile situations in multiple regions but connected. I welcome thoughtful and constructive dialog, but let’s start talking…and thinking critically.