Are we on track to meet global climate change goals?

With COP28 less than six months away on 30th November, the need for legislative action remains a global concern. Greenhouse gas emissions remain stubbornly high and we are still some way off reaching the Paris Agreement targets, but what do the climate trackers tell us? They show that there is still a need for action at all levels. The next COP meeting in Dubai is surely time for governments across the globe to prioritise climate change and their commitments to the Paris Agreement and, for those that have not enabled national legislation or policy commitments yet, to be supported to do so.

According to Climate Action Tracker, no significant country is on track to meet the Paris Agreement on 1.5C, although among European nations, the likes of the UK and Norway are making progress. The EU as a whole and, notably, Germany, remain behind. Despite this, according to the Tracker, Germany is still aiming to reduce its domestic emissions target of a 65% reduction below 1990 levels in 2030 but may need to accelerate its policies.

Not all climate legislation and policy exists at a national level. There is also a strong role for local and regional governments. Most recently, the Scottish Government reported that it had missed its climate change targets, though it was making good progress.

At a super-national level, there is also a need for action.?The EU needs to update its strategy to reach net zero by 2050. The European Council endorsed the Paris Agreement objectives at the end of 2019 and in 2018 the European Commission published its long-term climate strategy in A European strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy. Since then, there have been significant changes, not least the war in Ukraine, which has affected EU energy policy. It looks like a clear strategy is required to demonstrate how the Paris targets can still be met.

Using Net Zero Tracker, I was surprised, however, to find out that only 26 countries have passed the Paris Agreement targets into national law. And while the EU has enshrined it in its targets, not all EU member states have enshrined the targets into national legislation, including many central and eastern European states (with the notable exception of Hungary). That’s not to say they haven’t made the appropriate declarations or passed policy motions to deliver the necessary commitments, but legislation feels a more concrete commitment.

Perhaps of even greater concern is that 49 countries still have no net zero targets in place. Many of these are among the world’s poorest countries – Libya, Bolivia, Congo etc. What practical and political support are these countries receiving to help them also make the net zero transition and not be left behind? Other countries that have not yet agreed to any targets include major oil producers, such as Venezuela, Iran and Algeria.

A two-tier globe where richer countries decarbonise and other nations do not will leave us all poorer and the chances of reaching net zero targets will diminish. Governments can be slow to legislate and implement policy changes, but without even the foundations of binding net zero commitments, companies and local authorities are unlikely to fall into line.