Are we taking Boris too seriously?
Aren’t we lucky! We are living in a time of great turning moments. However, moments like these for those that sat themselves where the action takes place don’t just bear happiness and success. For some, the ones who set upon themselves a destiny to make a mark in history, these moments will turn very sour indeed. One such moment just went by few days ago; Theresa May left government, probably politics too, as a complete failure, although trumpeted as Thatcher’s 21st century re-incarnation. Just like in the best fiction hero stories her successor comes in with even greater self-assigning role; steering UK into a Golden Age. Nothing less expected from someone who holds Churchill as his idol! Already well-known public character, more of a show-man than a politician, Boris Johnson lacks no self-confidence in bravely setting his bars very high. On the other hand, however plain he may appear no one can deny his intellectual capital as well as his record as Mayor of London. So, the question that I am entertaining myself with is if Boris will really act as he is claiming in public, or in practice, to challenge big issues head-on! Taking a head-on approach would mean to solve all open questions to an extremely complex set of arrangements that Brexit contains; immigrant’s rights of EU citizens living in UK and those of UK living in EU countries, common market, and many more. Currently, in public the question of Irish border is being publicised as the most problematic. I have no reason to suspect that that is not the case in reality. In more simpler terms, questions are so many and so complex that attempting to solve, that is to reach an agreement with an already complex opponent is a task that even Boris should consider too risky and too foolish to believe to be sorted in three months-time.
Let us go back to the main promise that Boris came to power, the first D; deliver Brexit on 31st of October! Or what will happen if he fails to reach an agreement and a no-deal Brexit is forced through? For a start, that would be highly unlikely to be accepted by his fellow MPs. They would not be interested to take such a responsibility into crashing UK in a crisis that will be very hard to predict and rectify by some political gain. From Boris’ perspective this scenario would fail his DUD objective on the first go. He will deliver Brexit in the worst form possible (if we can call it delivery), it will tear the country and the party apart (probably cause Scots to call for the second referendum), and third, under such circumstances not even Boris’ showmanship will help defeat Jeremy Corbyn. From a basic politician’s perspective, which I would describe as succeeding to get re-elected time and again, current MPs would not hesitate to give a chance to someone else other than Boris to lead the country and the party.
Failure to deliver Brexit on acceptable terms, which ultimately rules out no-deal Brexit, will probably cause new election. Given that Labour have at last taken a clear position on Brexit and considering narrow win in the first referendum victory for Labour and Jeremy Corbyn is almost secured. I am not a fan of Jeremy Corbyn, in fact I think that country under his leadership is as close to disaster as it could get with particular consequences on UK’s foreign influence. However, just because that there is a real risk that going into election would cause losing seat for many Conservative MPs, does not mean that Boris will get his way by playing stubborn.
Where’s a will, there’s a way! At moments like these Boris should turn to his idol! In the same way he should play the long game, avoid tough decisions and postpone for when the time comes. Meantime, he will need some sort of peace with EU negotiators. On the other side of the channel the need for prolonged disputes and negotiations would not be on their wish list either. Hardliners have already made their point. In fact, handling of Brexit by UK did all the work that supporters of a stronger EU needed. Considering the hardships and risks that UK is facing, it is unlikely that in the near future any other country in EU would consider leaving, namely Italy. In fact, now that all the self-harming is done in UK, it would be better for EU that Brexit comes to a conclusion so that EU reformation can start. At the same time, it will give them time to prepare for any eventual scenario after the Brexit date agreement. It is this sort of long playing that Boris should follow too. First, my expectations are that a cosmetic change to the current agreement will be reached. This will help Boris to strengthen his position domestically and at the same time deliver Brexit on time. Such a change will play in the hands of politicians as well as other major players from the business community. This prolonged confusion turned instability is affecting everyone. Now that it is broadly accepted that there is no way back from referendum, and the idea that transition period may enable further changes, even remainers can only benefit from a clear conclusion of the process. Transition period is another tool to work with. Both sides will benefit from an extension, maybe three years, which will enable both sides to postpone complex issues for a ‘wait and see’ moment.
Considering Boris’ “one-man melting pot” background I expect that in the end Brexit will have little effect on the lives of individuals – what remainers want and distanced enough from EU bureaucracy – what leavers and EU hardliners prefer.
