We need zero-emissions evolution, not revolution
I’m all for setting ambitious targets but the government’s surprise decision to bring forward the ban on selling new petrol, diesel or hybrid cars in the UK from 2040 to 2035 at the latest concerns me greatly.
Revolution is no good without evolution, and the industry still has an awful lot of evolving to do to cope with such a seismic shift to alternative fuels. Are we being asked to run before we can walk?
Did you know, for example, that the UK currently has just 6,500 charging points – fewer than Norway, whose population is less than a tenth of the UK’s size. Hundreds of thousands more will be needed by the time the ban comes into force.
Just as worrying is the impact the decision will have on an industry that is already coping with a period dramatic transformation, driven by new technologies. At a stroke, five years of advance planning by manufacturers and retailers has been wiped out.
Unsurprisingly, the announcement has sent shockwaves through the industry, with the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) accusing the government of ‘moving the goalposts’ on zero emissions legislation.
I share their frustration.
Manufacturers and retailers are already investing heavily in plug-in vehicles, with more models due to come on stream soon, but they still make up a tiny percentage of sales.
Accelerating progress towards zero emissions will place a huge extra financial burden on the industry that could threaten the UK’s competitiveness in the international marketplace. And that, of course, puts people’s jobs at stake.
If I decide on a fitness or weight goal before a certain deadline, it means nothing unless I have a plan to achieve it.
So far, there is little sense of any strategy or investment plan to lead us to the zero emissions promised land.
How do we get to a comprehensive charging infrastructure, which is likely to cost hundreds of millions?
What’s the plan for energy supply, given the strain electric vehicles will put on the grid? More wind and solar power? And what role will hydrogen cell vehicles play
How do we create the conditions for companies to invest in future zero-emissions vehicles without undermining current profitability?
So many questions and, as yet, so few answers.
Co-founder and CEO at Driverly, Fintech Entrepreneur, Insurtech Entrepreneur
5 年I reckon the irony is that the government will be the main part the network not ready by 2035. Indeed I think manufacturers will be well prepared by then to offer reasonably priced EVs to the mass market. I'm far less convinced though that our infrastructure will be ready by 2035, as well said in the article.
Dispute Resolution Team Leader and Finance Partner at Wansbroughs solicitors
5 年Great comments and unfortunately we have seen similar issues In renewables. The problem with this is a lack of a balanced overall view. Hopefully other technology may help.
Global Product Strategy Lead - Twins platform
5 年Industries used to linear, incremental change have been making the same assumptions for years. EV development is not linear - it's exponential... It is not a car in the traditional sense, it's a device, driven by ever changing hardware and software. What feels linear and slow growing in the early days is far from it. The next 5-10 years will see a steepening of the development curve. 2035 is ambitious for sure in terms of infrastructure and other related areas but I don't think the product capability or affordability will have any issue in getting there. The processing power of an i-phone X would have cost over ten million dollars, twenty years ago...
Deputy CEO, Sales & Marketing, VINFAST UK
5 年Hi Lynda and David S. I understand and share your concerns, but the landscape will change dramatically towards EV during the next 5 years.? The price of cars will reduce. Due to demand, depreciation versus ICE/ hybrid will not be a factor and there will be a revolution in both battery technology and the charging infra structure. Without setting ambitious targets I suspect that the 2040 would have to be postponed. Look to the post for examples; visionaries will be rewarded.
Southgate Consulting Automotive Executive Search 01235 863525 or 07778 159555
5 年Agree totally with your sentiments, Lynda. Plus the whole life costs of electric vehicle ownership, including depreciation, does not make it viable for most families to consider yet, making the timescale very ambitious...