We need to be thinking deeply about adaptation as a simple idea in a complex world.

Recently I have been exploring complexity theories as it applies to my work on several system-level projects. This journey has involved me processing the implications of some of the fundamental dynamics that drive system behaviour and how they transition from one state to another.

The really interesting thing for me is that many paths in the theories point to adaptation as a core idea. On one level, adaptation is individual agents in a system, who have agency, making choices to change their mental models, to change their practises, to change their capabilities, to change their concept of value as a result of the signals they are picking up from around them. On another level, it is whole new patterns, properties and structures emerging at a system level.

The agent's or system's adaptive capacity is the ability to undertake adaptation when faced with volatilities, uncertainties, complexities or ambiguities in their environment. This becomes a learnt memory that builds resilience and long term existence - 'adapt or die' so to speak.

This analysis led me to start a list of some theories of transition centred around adaptation as prompts for us as we map out system transition work:

1. Dense peer-to-peer interactions - Agents with divergent opinions, activities or agendas connect and see the requirement to coordinate. They learn and adapt by changing their assumptions of how their?behaviours?will deliver them the value they seek. Interacting in a nonlinear fashion, creating networks of?connections?and?acting and reacting to each other's behaviour also results in the emergence of novel system-level patterns, properties and structures.??
2. Network effects?- Agents gain value from others using the same network. The more that are joining the more value for everyone else. This dynamic is driven by positive externalities and feedback loops.??
3. Attractors?- Aspects?towards which the system tends to evolve to from a wide variety of starting conditions. Heightened interconnectivity and interdependencies between agents at these points increase adaptation.??
4. Transition Activities - The change from the established pattern to the emergence of fundamentally new patterns occurs via?activities that enable the?shift.??
5. Reinforcing Loops?- Fundamental changes in the patterns, structures and functions of the system?are characterised?by?reinforcing feedback loops and are also fueled?by network effects.?
6. Creative destruction - New?innovations that are generated by entrepreneurial agents displace older elements forcing adaptation of other agents.?
7. Critical mass tipping points?- Points in a transition where positive feedback will gain traction leading to rapid and irreversible system change through mass adaptation.?

(Thanks to Si who created the complexity card set that was my primary resource for this work.)

The really curious footnote to this narrative is the first agents in a system that need to adapt is actually us and our sponsors. As 'system change agents', we need to adapt our mental models and practises when seeking the transition of complex adaptive systems. The OECD made the same point in 'Systems Approaches to Public Sector Challenges: Working with Change’ OECD 2017.

Changing the dynamics of a well-established and complex system requires not only a new way of examining problems, but also bold decision making that fundamentally challenges many organisation and public sector institutions mindsets and approaches.”

As always, love your thoughts and feedback, as we embark on this journey of adaptation.

Lastly, you may not be surprised, but my new consulting business brand is adaptation.nz.

See you in the system somewhere. MG