We Need to Talk About the Cost of Keeping COVID at Bay. Could the US Presidential Election Result be Flipped? And how to find Experts You Can Trust.

Grüezi! I’m Adrian Monck and welcome to this World Economic Forum newsletter.

Also this week...who’s spending most on research; hackers might target your medical implants; and confronting the people making money from denying climate change.

Newsletters are for sharing – so please share this one!

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1?? We Need to Talk About the Cost of Keeping COVID at Bay

The harms of public health interventions against COVID–19 can’t be ignored.

People are angry, and this article in the British Medical Journal spells out why:

• “The coronavirus pandemic is far from over. Many countries are already reeling from the effects of the pandemic response as well as trying to cope with additional waves of dangerous infection rates. Governments will have to make difficult decisions that rely on uncertain and changing data regarding the most effective approaches to contain the pandemic. Although the evidence on the adverse consequences of measures to control COVID–19 continues to grow, there remains a paucity of any such voices in the public and decision making conversation, which seems to convey a dominant narrative of pandemic mitigation at all costs. This is perhaps a reflection of the challenge of the moment, but we must adopt a more nuanced approach to understanding the pros and cons of different approaches.”

Plus, if you’re having a gathering, or going somewhere with other people – what are the chances someone has coronavirus? And, restricting numbers in crowded places might be better than stopping people moving around.

? Another cost of COVID-19: fast-rising national debts. Here’s what that means.

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2?? Could the US Presidential Election Result be Overturned?

The 1876 election ended in a mess. TL;DR? It’s technically possible.

A polsci prof writes:

• “[T]he electoral vote certification process in January can be interrupted. Legally speaking, the next president of the United States will be certified on 6th January 2021. On this day, the US House of Representatives and the US Senate will meet in joint session to review the electoral college votes.
• It takes just one member of the House and one member of the Senate to challenge the certification of a state’s electors. In 2000 and 2004, members of the Congressional Black Caucus challenged the certification of George Bush’s electoral votes from Florida and Ohio, respectively, but because they lacked any support in the Senate, the challenges were overruled.
• Can we be certain that a Republican senator would not object to the certification of Pennsylvania’s electoral college votes this time around? Should a key state’s electoral votes be successfully challenged, it could deprive Biden of the 270 threshold.”

Harvard Prof Graham Allison agrees.

? Joe Biden in Davos in 2017. Donald Trump in Davos in 2020.

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3?? These are the Top 5 Countries in the World for R&D Spending

? What the R&D produces: the top 10 emerging technologies.

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4?? This Woman Hacked her own Pacemaker

Don’t do this.

? Do this instead: cultivate creativity, which AI can’t replace.

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5?? The Collapse of Civilizations

Cheery topic, eh?

The NYT has a long piece on Joseph Tainter, an academic who has spent his career studying why societies fall to bits and probably not a fun guy to invite to parties. Taimter says that societies tend to become more complex over time, and then the complications end up costing too much, tying them in knots and things fall apart.

• As the benefits of ever-increasing complexity — the loot shipped home by the Roman armies or the gentler agricultural symbiosis of the San Juan Basin — begin to dwindle ... societies “become vulnerable to collapse.” 

His scary conclusion?

“As resources committed to benefits decline...resources committed to control must increase.”

The decline/collapse narrative pops up in lots of places. Here’s Brad DeLong:

• [O]ne of my friends from a not-rich part of East Asia says: “Students from my country come to the U.S. these days. They see dirty cities, lousy infrastructure, and the political clown show on TV, and an insular people clinging to their guns and their gods who boast about how they are the greatest people in the world without knowing anything about what is going on outside. They come back and tell me: ‘We have nothing to learn from those people! Why did you send me there?’”

Maybe a bit less cultural cringing is good... but it’s a harsh picture.

Finally, it’s not often I drop my marmalade reading something. But Thomas Meaney’s conclusion in a review of two new books on US foreign policy is pretty extraordinary:

If the two chief global crises – climate change and capitalism – are regarded from the perspective of American power, the position towards China is anything but clear. A swift Armageddon between the two powers would be worth the ecological scars if it dealt a permanent blow to global consumption.

Is he serious? Or is this a darkly satirical suggestion like Jonathan Swift’s Modest Proposal? In today’s febrile world, we’re all a little too nervous for black humour.

Incidentally the whole essay is a provocative read, challenging the conventional ideas of liberal foreign policy. Give it a read!

? To help build a better future, follow our Pioneers of Change Summit this week.

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6?? Who Do We Trust?

Scepticism is great, but who do we turn to for trustworthy guidance?

When it comes to things we are not expert in (which is almost everything for me), how do we find trustworthy folks to make sense of things?

Ryan Byerly has five thoughtful questions to ask when you’re looking at who to turn to for expert advice:

1. Do they get excited when I make intellectual progress, or only when they influence my views? ... If they’re interested only in influencing your views, research suggests that they might attempt to lead you in more extreme directions.
2. Are they fearful about sharing their ideas? Are they over-eager for others to approve of their ideas? If the other person is too fearful or eager to please, this can lead them to misrepresent their views...
3. Are they willing and able to clarify their meaning if I ask them to?
4. Do they demonstrate an appreciation of my unique perspective, needs and abilities? If they’re too interested in themselves to pay attention to you ... this can prevent them from sharing what it’s most important for you to know.
5. Do they show patience in trying to understand the complexities of my predicament, or are they in a hurry to identify a solution? A hallmark of the wisdom demanded by an intellectual guide is the ability to patiently suss out the intricacies of the dilemmas you face.

? As trust takes a hit, fewer people say they’ll take a COVID-19 vaccine.

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7??  Climate Change Isn’t About Your Values

A Conservative ex-Prime Minister in Australia tackles the people making money peddling lies.

? No propaganda in our podcast World vs Virus. It’s just Robin and the regulars. They also have a new podcast series out – The Great Reset. Take a listen!

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Hope you’ve liked this week’s content, 

Adrian

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