We must not let the next window of opportunity go to waste!

The mess in Russia is no surprise to Central Europeans: Poles, Hungarians,Czechs,Slovaks and others, who grew up with Russians breathing down their necks. For Central Europeans the drama (or maybe comedy) which unfolded over the weekend wasn't totally unexpected. Dictatorships are by nature disfunctional. Dictators, in their insanity, are in the end destructively ineffective. Their love of themselves, of power, of money is greater than love of country. The "beloved people" are there to feed his megalomania. They love the "PEOPLE", but despise the individual.

Growing up in Hungary, I had an instinctive despise of Russia for crushing the 1956 revolution, a valiant effort to rid ourselves of Communism and Russian occupation. (It is arguably the most bizarre and saddest twist of History that Hungarian PM Viktor Orban is Vladimir Putin's last remaining friend in the Atlantic Alliance) Back then, being stuck behind the Iron Curtain our only hope was to see a more benign Russian leader emerge out of decline, which will allow political and economic reform, more accepting to the national interests of the "vassal" states. This opportunity came by the way of Gorbatchev, whos path to power was paved by fromer KGB head, later Communist Party Chief Yuri Andropov. We held our breath after Andropov died, hoping for radical change, to be disappointed to see a beaurocrat, Chernenko, emerge. But two years later, Gorbatchev took control.

When Gorbatchev came to power, we had no illusions that he was a Russian through and through, and the most important realization in Budapest was that there is a window of opportunity, but also that it will be temporary, likely short lived. Russia was preoccupied with its internal problems. The position of our "friends" in the west was an extremely cautious, "don't rock the boat" attitude, mainly of Germany. But a young generation of Western leaning politicians (nominally communist, in reality not at all) of Poland and Hungary, with a strong support and pressure by their democratic opposition in those countries, led the charge and pushed as hard as they could to rid themselves of the Russian occupiers and of Communist one party system. The window of opportunity lasted a decade, but only because of the chaos after the failed 1993 coup. We in Central Europe were in constant terror from the possibility of the "reawakening of the Bear", when Germany, by then united "will throw the rest of Central Europe under the bus". When Yeltsin was replaced by the thug Putin, which did not bode well for the future, I remember my conversation with a former Defense Secretary from the UK. I told him: Putin does not bode well for the future. He responded that I was a paranoid Central European. But then he added: but perhaps paranoids too have enemies.

I think of myself as a realist Central European. But I also believe in genes carrying past experiences and traumas. Mine carry the trauma of WW II, of the holocaust where my grandparents perished in the camps, the Russian occupation of the country (which I watched from our balcony). But then, survival instinct is also very Central European, and therefore our ability to spot opportunity, is stronger than that of our brothers and sisters farther west.

We don't know how this all will end, but what transpired out of Moscow these last days still ring a bell. History does not repeat itself in a precise manner, societies and cultures change. But there is one lesson which definitely must be heeded: when there is an opportunity, grab it. It takes statesmanship, shrewd leadership and lots of courage to seize the opportunity that will arise from the developments in Russia. But be ready to act, and be ready to move fast. I am not advocating interfering in the Russian developments. But this second chance to support Ukraine, Moldova and others to join with the West, to cement their freedom and democracy while Russia is preoccupied with efforts to keep the country together, must be an absolute priority of our foreign policy. We must not hesitate. There is a window of opportunity emerging. If this recent development is what we hope it is, it might be that next window of opportunity. But as mentioned above, windows of opportunity tend to close.

We must be ready!