Are We Headed for Another COVID Lock-Down in December?
You have probably heard in the past few days about new COVID-19 projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine. If you want to explore the new projections yourself, you may access them at:
Why should we pay attention to the new IHME projections? Projections from the IHME model so far have been reasonably accurate while NOT overestimating the number of deaths that would occur.
Where can I read more about the possible consequences associated with the new IHME projections? See this article:
Why are these projections so important? Based on analysis of the pandemic data so far, IHME has drawn the conclusion that the SARS-CoV-2 virus will transmit more rapidly in cold weather, similar to the pattern of pneumonia infection in the US. As a consequence, if we do nothing more to control the virus, the number of COVID-19 deaths will increase substantially through Nov.
Just how many deaths might there be? IHME projects that there will be 2900 deaths per day by Dec 1st at which time the daily death toll flattens out and stays in the range 2700-2900 deaths per day. This projected rate is more than 3 times the current COVID-19 mortality rate.
Why does the projected COVID-19 mortality rate flatten out in Dec? IHME projects that between mid-Oct and Dec 1st, Americans will be required to decrease their mobility to the levels we experienced in mid-Apr. In other words, as the COVID-19 death toll rises to 2000 per day by Nov 1st, governors will have no choice but to restrict American's mobility. As the death toll continues to grow to near 3000 per day on Dec 1st, American's mobility will be more and more restricted.
What is the bottom line? If we don't do more to control the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, we are looking at the distinct possibility of a lock-down in Dec similar to the one we had in Apr. This will be devastating to both our economy and our mental health. I don't think anyone wants this outcome but it is likely to happen unless we make significant changes to our plan for managing the virus.