Are We on the Edge of a Global Recession?

Editor’s Note:?Starting on Monday, Raoul is going on a 2-week journey of discovery… During?Global Recession: Is Everyone Wrong??we’re going to arm you with the information you need to secure your present and your future. You get 14 days of access for just $1, which means you get twice as much out of our new-member trial as usual.?And?you get a ton more for that $1.

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The Triumphs and Tribulations That Took Tony Greer to TG Macro?

Skilled trader and fan-favorite Tony Greer joins Maggie Lake in a special edition of My Life in 4 Trades to share how exactly he went from working a trading floor to running his own company.

?Market signals:?Tony talks about market signals he learned to watch for to determine the health of a rally.

• “Big stocks were still flat on the week, or big stocks were up on the week, and on Friday's close, they would close dead even, flat on the week, and those were one of my signals.”?

Blown up:?Tony explains how he gave back all the gains on his aggressive-trading account.

• “That $50,000 that I turned into $450,000 over a course of about 8 or 9 months, to cut to the chase, I turned it back into $50,000 in the next year and a half.”

Watch the Whole Thing

Are We on the Edge of Recession??

Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, assesses the noise and the signals, noting that, ironically, the Fed’s “quantitative easing” may have created all this uncertainty in the first place. And Evan Lorenz, deputy editor at Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, examines prior cases of inverted-yield curves and economic downturns.

?Inflation:?Harley talks about how high inflation could get and what it could drop down to.?

• “Is it going to be 8%, 9%, 10%? Definitely no, it's going to come down. The question is, is that going to come down to 2% or come down to 4% or 5%? I would think it's going to come down to roughly 4%, 5%.”

Intended consequences:?Harley notes that the Fed wanted inflation to deal with debt. He talks about the effects that will be seen on bond rates.

• “This, once again, was a feature, not a bug; they wanted to create inflation.”

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Are Treasuries Still a Safe Haven??

The S&P 500 has generally outpaced commodities over the last 50 years. But, as Dan Rasmussen notes, things may have started to change in the last 12 months. Rasmussen, a partner at Verdad Advisers, talks to Michael Nicoletos about where to find safe havens in a rapidly evolving environment. Dan offers his assessment of the current landscape, explaining why Japan and Europe could be interesting opportunities.

Credit spreads:?Dan talks about the effect credit spreads have on markets and the economy.

• “When credit spreads are really wide, it's deflationary. It's really hard if companies can't borrow money, if consumers can't borrow money and mortgages are really high; it's really hard to have inflation.”

Fixed income:?Dan explains how a continued sell-off in equities will drive fixed income higher.

• “If you look at times when equities drop 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, fixed income almost inevitably goes up a lot.”

Watch the Whole Thing

Here is a chart from the week that made us think, “wait a sec.”?

From Twitter,?@MacroCharts?is sentiment bottoming? “Investor sentiment is at historic pessimism. In 35 years, only five other weeks got this extreme:

• Four during the 1990 Recession trough / Inflation peak.
• One at the exact bottom in March 2009.”

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Global Recession? What You Need To Know