Will We Continue See an Increase in Violent Crime?

Are we on track to repeat the level of violence seen between 1984 to 1989?

Homicide rates in the early 1980’s for young adults was 13.4 per 100,000, in 2021 it was 10.7.

Memphis: In 2022 there were 2,441 guns reported stolen. In 2023, Major property crimes, including burglaries and vehicle and property thefts, shot up 43% in Memphis and 42% in Shelby County in the first three months of 2023, with a staggering 155% increase in vehicle thefts.

It is easy to become overwhelmed by the information or numb to the normality of active violence in Memphis, and other metropolitan areas, especially when politicians cherry-pick statistics to tell us that “crime” is down. Or pull Homicide rates per 100,000 people and say Homicides are down. Without adding that improvements in Trauma Care have had a bigger impact on the reduction in homicide deaths than the actual reduction in violence.

We are witnessing a “gearing up” period across major metropolitan areas. Nearly 7 guns are stolen a day in Memphis. Some of these guns remain in the city, some are found in other states, demonstrating an expanding armed criminal network. We are also witnessing an increase in vehicle thefts, many of which are used in “next level” crimes. Crimes against businesses.

Younger and younger criminals are being identified, and with absenteeism rates at nearly 30% for Memphis schools, their education is occurring on the streets. The criminal evolution in our youth will result in an increasing level of violence as the lack of consequences emboldens their criminal behavior.

Fentanyl will become the new crack cocaine. The crack epidemic and the violence it brought with it peaked between 1984 and 1989. Easily accessible, potently addictive, and profitable. Yet, its distribution is still disorganized, compared to crack at its peak.

We will see an increasing involvement of gangs and organized crime supported by stolen guns, stolen cars, and funded by fentanyl. This will devolve into violence for geography, consolidation of power, and a level of violence fueled by a lack of incarceration. Those most at risk for indoctrination are our youth and those with mental illness. The youth will find misguided purpose, protection, and power. Those with mental illness will find structure in the lawlessness or the ability to self-medicate their demons away.

Even with Memphis experiencing dramatic growth in payroll jobs and hourly wages, opportunities for employment abound. The ability to find economic advantage exists yet the pull of the street is strong against the absence of the family structure. 60% of children live with an unmarried parent or other relative. Only 40% of children live with married parents. ?

We are on a crash course to repeat the violence that we experienced during the crack epidemic, and it will be felt most by the economically disadvantaged in major metropolitan areas. Business will be forced to make hard decisions about locations, shuttering or relocating jobs, which will increase the impact on those in the areas hit by crime, creating a vicious cycle of poverty and crime. ?

Politicians will make special laws for fentanyl that will have disparate consequences on the poor, instead of just enforcing the laws we have on the books now. Our legal system must stop the revolving door that facilitates repeat offenders committing crime while out on bail, the lack of consequences that facilitates the progression from non-violent to violent crime and must restore some semblance to the worsening criminal environment being felt by the average citizen and businesses in Memphis and other major metropolitan areas.