We Choose this Race: How 5G and AV Can Help Humanity

Prologue

“In a series of speeches, Chinese President Xi Jinping has made clear his unhappiness with the current state of Chinese innovation, decrying China’s laggard status in stark terms: “Generally speaking, the foundation of our scientific and technological innovation is not solid enough; our independent innovation ability, especially in the area of original creativity is not strong. . . . We cannot always decorate our tomorrows with others’ yesterdays. We cannot afford to lag behind in this important race. We must catch up and then try to surpass others.”7?Elizabeth Economy, The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State

“At a meeting with US officials, a high-ranking Chinese military officer explained how his views of cybersecurity have evolved as each side has built up its?cyber?powers and raised the stakes in a potential conflict: ‘The United States has big stones in its hands but also has a plate-glass window. China has big stones in its hands but also a plate-glass window. Perhaps because of this, there are things we can agree on.’” - Singer, P.W., Cybersecurity and Cyberwar: What Everyone Needs to Know.

Author’s Note: I am on the Kansas University Cybersecurity Board.?I am excited to be on this University Board and engaging the academic community of Cybersecurity – especially focusing on AV technology. https://www.nsa.gov/news-features/news-stories/2018/new-lablets-to-advance-sos-and-privacy.shtml

"Last year (2015), 35,000 people in the United States and 260,000 individuals in China died from auto accidents." - Smart transportation in China and the United States Yuming Ge, Xiaoman Liu, Libo Tang, and Darrell M. West https://www.brookings.edu/research/smart-transportation-in-china-and-the-united-states/

“About 1.25 million people die each year on the world's roads and between 20 and 50 million sustain non-fatal injuries. Young adults aged between 15 and 44 years account for 59% of global road traffic deaths.” https://www.who.int/features/factfiles/roadsafety/en/

The elimination of all road deaths in the next 25 years should be a shared challenge that humanity is "willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win.”

“The desire that guides me in all I do is the desire to harness the forces of nature to the service of mankind.” — Nikola Tesla

2024 update, see the latest status of the 5G Race

GSMA | The Mobile Economy China 2024 - The Mobile Economy

With the number of 5G connections in China set to reach 1 billion by the end of 2024, operators are ready to initiate the next phase of the technology’s development, which will see investments in 5G-Advanced get underway. These investments can propel the industry towards a more profound focus on revenue-enhancing capabilities, unlocking new growth opportunities for operators while also delivering important economic benefits. For example, 5G’s contribution to GDP in China is expected to reach $260 billion in 2030 (23% of the overall annual economic impact of mobile in China).

GSMA | The Mobile Economy North America 2023 - The Mobile Economy

The US and Canada are among the global leaders in terms of 5G adoption, with adoption rates expected to reach 59% in the US, and 34% in Canada by the end of 2023. This reflects the ambitious rollout plans of operators and a strong demand from consumers for new services

GSMA | 5G Momentum Continues with 1.6 Billion Connections Worldwide, Rising to 5.5 Billion by 2030, According to GSMA Intelligence - Newsroom

28 February 2024, Barcelona: New figures from GSMA Intelligence (GSMAi) show 5G connections are expected to represent over half (51%) of mobile connections by 2029, rising to 56% by the end of the decade – making 5G the dominant connectivity technology. 5G has been the fastest mobile generation rollout to date, surpassing one billion connections by the end of 2022, rising to 1.6 billion connections at the end of 2023 and 5.5 billion by 2030.

As of January 2024, 261 operators in 101 countries had launched commercial 5G services, and more than 90 operators from 64 markets have committed to rollouts. Of the 261 commercial 5G services available, 47 are provided by 5G Standalone (SA) networks, with a further 89 planned deployments near-term that will take advantage of network slicing, ultra-reliable low-latency communications support and the simplified 5G SA network architecture.

The growth of available 5G SA networks, and improved support for private & dedicated networks, will support a massive number of connected devices and help to realise the global IoT vision for the enterprise. GSMAi data shows the enterprise segment now counts 10.7 billion IoT connections (versus 10.5 billion consumer connections) and this momentum is expected to continue, with enterprise connections more than doubling to 38.5 billion by 2030 and smart buildings and smart manufacturing accounting for 34% and 16% of total enterprise connections respectively.

Introduction

At the daylong technology workshop to State and local CIO, I will give a presentation on 5G and AV, I plan to highlight how 5G can unlock $12 Trillion of economic value and in the US help create more than 3 million new jobs and add $500 billion to the economy.???

Marcus Weldon, CTO of Nokia and President of Bell Labs tweeted a few months ago, “At a dinner in Davos this week with @nokia CEO Rajeev Suri @realDonaldTrump said ‘I get it: 5G’s the ballgame’; that’s something I can get behind!”

Rajeev Suri Nokia CEO at Mobile World Congress 2018 said “We expect 5G adoption to be more rapid than what we saw in earlier generations of technology, pretty much across all countries.“?

“It is coming really fast.”

“Commercial 5G networks will launch, maybe as early as the end of this year, or early 2019. It is quite remarkable. Even eight months ago many operators I talked to shrugged off 5G. Now they get it, and the race is on.“?

Rajeev Suri highlighted a “neck and neck race” between the U.S. and China, “pretty much ahead of the rest of the world.“

Rather than having wars (hot, cold, cyber, flame or trade), I prefer races.?Because races “will serve to organize and measure the best of [humanities] energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win”

I liked watching American Ninja Warrior because in American Ninja Warrior, even though participants are completing against each other, the athletes realize they are really competing against the course and so they have a shared bond.?As one blogger wrote:?“Although they are competing against each other for the ultimate title of American Ninja Warrior,?they treat each other more like teammates than opponents.?If I am being completely honest, they probably treat each other?better?than most teammates do.?My kids are realizing that their biggest rival can still be their best friend, and I imagine this lesson will follow them far beyond their adolescent years.” https://fortworth.citymomsblog.com/2017/08/15/open-letter-american-ninja-warrior/

CTIA hosted an event on April 19th – Race to 5G Summit and as the web site states, “The race to lead the world in 5G is on – and America needs to win. At stake? Millions of new jobs, billions in economic growth, and transformative advances across industries.

CTIA’s Race to 5G Summit will feature senior business executives and leading experts addressing the international competition to lead the world in wireless, the risk of falling behind, the policies we need to win, and how 5G will impact a variety of sectors such as healthcare, energy and manufacturing. Speakers will explore the stakes at play including millions of new jobs and billions in economic."growth.”?https://www.cvent.com/c/express/a1f1d170-fe0b-4371-9127-0a344a40d491

In Dr. Morris’ book, War! What Is It Good For?: Conflict and the Progress of Civilization from Primates to Robots, he quotes England’s Lord Palmerston, the foreign secretary, in 1848 “We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual friends,” only “our interests are eternal and perpetual.”?But if the ultimate mutual interest - our shared race - is common safety, peace and prosperity for all of humanity, then maybe we can indeed have eternal allies and perpetual friends.

In Dr. Morris’ book, “Why the West Rules--for Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future,“ it outlines Social Development through 15,000 years of history measuring four traits: 1) energy capture, 2) organization/ urbanization, 3) war-making and 4) information technology.?Dr. Morris then considers the next 100 years and states, “the twenty-first century is going to be a race. In one lane is some sort of Singularity; in the other, Nightfall. One will win and one will lose.?There will be no silver medal. Either we will soon (perhaps before 2050) begin a transformation even more profound than the industrial revolution, which may make most of our current problems irrelevant, or we will stagger into a collapse like no other.”

The elimination of all road deaths in the next 25 years should be a shared challenge that humanity is "willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win.”

I am calling this AV YEAR 2043?- 25 Years from Now? Plus or Minus 10 Years (2033 – 2053) – What will it take:

• Government, Academic and Industry Investment
• Society Acceptance
• Government Support and Regulation
• Road Operators / IOO Community / MPO / ITS Engagement

When I look at information from RethinkX Tony Seba, Ford, GM, Waymo, Tesla, Nvidia and others, I think we can get there by the early 2030s (the voice of the wizards) .?When I attend meetings with people from the DoTs / MPO / Road Operators (as part of the KC Metro AV Task Force) and they discuss all the challenges of the road systems today, I wonder if the 2050s is more accurate (the voice of the prophets).

See this white paper, A Policy and Planning Framework for Autonomous and Connected Vehicles in Greater Kansas City, highlights the efforts of the Task Force: https://marc.org/Transportation/Plans-Studies/pdfs/Driving-Change-AV-White-Paper.aspx

See this blog: Ad astra per aspera - vel technologias; a vision of the future by a Rational Sanguine Futurist who is working to be a Wizard https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/ad-astra-per-aspera-vel-technologias-vision-future-rational-doug/ based on the book: The Wizard and the Prophet: Two Remarkable Scientists and Their Dueling Visions to Shape Tomorrow's World by Charles C. Mann

See this article from Business Insider: Uber insiders describe infighting and questionable decisions before its self-driving car killed a pedestrian?https://www.businessinsider.com/sources-describe-questionable-decisions-and-dysfunction-inside-ubers-self-driving-unit-before-one-of-its-cars-killed-a-pedestrian-2018-10?

"On March 18, one of Uber's self-driving cars killed Elaine Herzberg, the first pedestrian fatality involving an autonomous vehicle.

As Uber prepares to return its cars to the roads, Business Insider spoke with current and former employees and viewed internal documents.

These employees and documents described vast dysfunction in Uber's Advanced Technologies Group, with rampant infighting and pressure to catch up to competitors, issues that these employees say continue to this day.

Sources say engineers were pressured to "tune" the self-driving car for a smoother ride in preparation of a big year-end demonstration of their progress, but that meant not allowing the car to respond to everything it saw, real or not."

NHTSA’s Automated Driving Systems (ADSs – SAE International Automation Levels 3-5) Voluntary Safety Self-Assessment (VSSA) Disclosure Index.?https://www.nhtsa.gov/automated-driving-systems/voluntary-safety-self-assessment

Ford, General Motors, Waymo, Nvidia, Uber and Nuro have submitted reports. Read the BI article and read the Uber report.

Another article that provides good insight in to when this will happen is from the Society of Actuaries - Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems?

The surface transportation industry is in the early stages of a series of profound changes, stimulated by the development of increasingly sophisticated driving safety and automation technologies. Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the speed with which these changes will take place and the nature of their impacts on safety, the overall demand for travel, vehicle sales, and vehicle ownership. This report does not attempt to forecast the pace of these changes, instead advancing a list of “trigger points” that might serve as leading indicators of change.

https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2018/market-framework-automated-vehicle/

In the book by Dr. Chris Impey, Beyond: Our Future in Space, in the chapter, The Urge to Explore, Dr. Impey writes: “Epic animal migrations are driven by climate, the availability of food, or mating, and almost all animal migrations are seasonal. Humans are the only species that moves systematically and purposefully over very large distances, in multigenerational migrations, for reasons not tied to the availability of resources. The itch that led our ancestors to risk everything to travel in small boats across large bodies of water like the Pacific Ocean is related to the drive that will one day lead us to colonize Mars."

The Space Race between the US and Russia in the 1950s-1970s, brought so much scientific and economic benefit to the World and Encourage Humanity to Look to the Stars with the Shared Goal of Peace and Prosperity, Can the 5G and AV Race between the US, China and other Countries bring Similar Benefits to Humanity in the 2020s?

Partnering to develop the business case and funding process to make it happen is critical.?Humanity did not stop sending men or women to the moon because we did not lack the technology to go to the moon but because, we could not find the will and the economic benefit to reach for the stars.?“America's wireless companies are ready to invest $275B into building 5G network infrastructure.?5G technology will ensure self-driving cars reduce emissions by up to 90%, cut travel time by 40%, and save 22,000 lives annually. 5G will save $450B annually in transportation costs.” 5G and AV technology may be one way to help our society to find the technology, the will and the economic benefit to achieve the elimination of all road deaths.

I do not want to?“decorate our tomorrows with others’ yesterdays. We cannot afford to lag behind in this important race. We must catch up and then try to surpass others.” Chinese President Xi Jinping

So rather than wars, I want to promote races (like the race to space, 5G, Autonomous Vehicles and Ninja Warrior) – shared races where humanity “stands face to face” with the common goal to promote safety, peace and prosperity for all.

To paraphrase JFK, We Are Going to Do This, “not because it is easy, but because it is hard; because this goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills.”

Epilogue

?“Oh, East is East, and West is West, and never the two shall meet, Till Earth and Sky stand presently at God’s great Judgment Seat;

But there is neither East nor West, Border, nor [Race], nor Birth, When two strong men stand face to face, tho’ they come from the ends of the earth.”??The Ballad of East and West Rudyard Kipling (1865–1936)

I want to work for a time that humanity sees neither “East nor West, Border, [nor Race, nor Gender,] nor Birth” but a shared race that humanity can win to become “transformation even more profound than the industrial revolution.”???

The race for shared prosperity reminded me of this quote Byron Reese, in the book?Infinite Progress: How the Internet and Technology Will End Ignorance, Disease, Poverty, Hunger, and War.

“In 2007, the National Academy of Sciences published a six-hundred-page report called “Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future.” It contained this observation: “Economic studies conducted even before the information-technology revolution have shown that as much as 85 percent of measured growth in U.S. income per capita was due to technological change.” The report also cited a mid-1950s report that found 85 percent of economic growth was attributed to technological change in the period 1890 to 1950. Taken together, those findings suggest that almost all economic growth in the last 120-plus years was from technology.

I find this very easy to accept. And after accepting it, I apply it to the future and project that technological advance— and the economic growth it promotes— is poised to proceed at an astonishingly faster pace. If the rate of technological advance is increasing dramatically— and I know of no one outside of a mental institution who disputes that— then it follows that economic growth will increase dramatically as well. In fact, we are already seeing this. As Gregg Easterbrook notes in his book Sonic Boom, “In 2001, global average per-capita economic production was $ 5,000; by 2008, the average was $ 8,000, a 60 percent increase in less than a decade.” [in 2018 it is over $12,000]

For more information on Technology and Space, see my blog:

Space Time – Game Changers - The Door into Summer - thoughts on R&D

"I recently came across The Practical Values of Space Exploration presented to the 86th Congress on July 5, 1960.?For anyone interested in how the A.I, robotics, IoT and new space technology will impact our future, I would encourage you to read this report written in 1960.?Consider the challenges the engineers and scientists faced in 1960, what was predicted and what benefits space technology has brought to the world.?This report shows how space technology was a game changer for our world.?I believe we are poised for a similar game changer in the next 10 to 15 years with A.I, robotics, IoT and new space technology.?https://www.gutenberg.org/files/19911/19911-h/19911-h.htm

The report begins: “The United States has not embarked upon its formidable program of space exploration in order to make or perpetuate a gigantic astronautic boondoggle. There are good reasons, hard reasons for this program. But, in essence, they all boil down to the fact that the program is expected to produce a number of highly valuable payoffs. It not only is expected to do so, it is doing so right now."

https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/space-time-game-changers-door-summer-thoughts-rd-doug-hohulin/

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