WE CAN MAKE A START WITH A LARGE INTEGRATED PLAN

The health and economic emergencies must be managed together

This Article has been published in Italian on Il Sole 24 Ore on the 5th of April 2020

Today our country must pursue two linked objectives that are common to all countries affected by the pandemic: to curb the number of victims of Covid-19 and reactivate the economy to avoid a recession with terrible consequences.

Much has been done already but we now need a more wide-ranging, short- and medium-term plan that effectively addresses the health and economic crises, and that acknowledges the possibility that therapies and vaccines for Covid-19 will not be developed for many months.

It must be everyone’s goal to reopen our society and economy as quickly as possible but forcing this reopening too soon will lead to devastating consequences. Hong Kong’s return from quarantine is a clear warning: there are no shortcuts and re-opening in ten days would have an enormous cost on human life without actually achieving anything on the economic front.

Here are some ideas for an Action Plan which draws on proposals developed by experts in many different fields. All the various dimensions of this Plan should be managed simultaneously by a strong and centralised leadership.

1. Containment of infection and strengthening of the health system

The reopening of society depends on how we manage and curb the epidemic and how we strengthen our ability to treat the sick. It will vary by region and is entirely down to us.

The data and statistics that we are using today are not fit for purpose: they do not allow us to know the true extent, evolution and geographic location of the infection. We must make a qualitative leap in data management and introduce a national app that cuts individual risk.

Our health system is in grave crisis: we need quickly to add thousands of intensive care beds and override our usual procurement procedures. The equipment that is not already immediately available must be manufactured instead: we have the skills to do it. Non-acute patients will have to be offered "telemedicine" at home while we continue to ensure essential logistics and other assistance to those who cannot care for themselves.

2. Financial support for families and businesses

The number of families and businesses in financial difficulty will continue to grow and they must all be able to have their bank, tax, pension and utility payments frozen. Everyone who loses their income, either employed or self-employed, should receive unemployment benefit through a simple self-certification process. The system for making requests and receiving regular payments should be handled by a single body, for example Poste Italiane. There should be a ban on lay-offs for the rest of the year but businesses should be able to access temporary redundancy payments.

All businesses up to a certain size should be offered a guaranteed interest-free loan equivalent to 25-30% of their declared turnover for 2019 (along the lines of the Bridge Plan proposed by the Minima Moralia Association).

The banking system can play a role in speeding everything up. All state-run bodies should settle accounts with suppliers and any overdue business payments. The sums available from the Central Guarantee Fund and the Cassa Depositi e Prestiti must be increased significantly.

For a strong economic recovery in the medium term, we need to offer companies tax and pension breaks to accelerate their hiring and investment. Companies and sectors most important to supply chains, and sectors most affected by the crisis such as tourism, entertainment and retail must be supported. Particular attention should be given to start-ups, which will make a great contribution to the recovery provided they are supported to survive this crisis.

3. Economic growth in Italy and Europe

Finally, for sustained and sustainable growth in Italy and throughout Europe, we should see the launch of a historic programme of public investment and aid for private investment, to the tune of €3-5 trillion euros over the next few years. This would prioritise infrastructure, education and training and be managed at an EU level.

An action plan on this scale and in this timeframe can succeed only under a unified management and chain of command, capable of co-ordinating everyone involved and able to issue regulations at all levels. Centralisation and management of data is needed as well as a central working group as a main point of contact, able to channel professional resources on loan from businesses, universities and civil society. This working group should act as the main point of contact and as a filter for proposals.

Finally, managing such a dramatic situation requires an unprecedented communications strategy to rebuild the trust and inclusivity of citizens, entrepreneurs and investors. We must all be able to understand the plan as a whole, understand the role that we each must play, and take the appropriate actions needed to overcome this crisis and emerge with the building blocks in place for a strong and sustainable recovery.

You will find the whole action plan on Il Sole 24 Ore

Corrado Passera

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