Are we on the brink of a new bull market?
Bryan Daly, CFP?
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER? Professional, Fee-Based Fiduciary, Founder NLFP, Royal Fund Management-Registered Investment Advisor. Teaching innovative ways to make, manage, and save money.
Are we on the brink of a new bull market?
We might be. The S&P 500 has soared in 2023 and is up nearly 20% from its October 2022 low.(1) A new deal finally put the debt ceiling issue to rest (for now, anyway), and stocks are rallying.
That's pretty surprising given the concerns about interest rates, recessions, banks, and a war in Europe, so some analysts are wary.
How do we know when we're in a bull market?
First, let's acknowledge that the terms “bull” and “bear” are just shorthand for general market trends and don't necessarily mean anything scientific.
Generally, a 20% decline from a market high defines a bear market.
(You might remember all the headlines from 2022 when the current one started.)
However, bull markets are a little harder to call.
A 20% increase from a bear market low doesn't necessarily kick off a bull market.2
Since a 20% increase still leaves you shy of your original market high, many analysts don’t consider it a proper bull market yet.
They want to see stocks achieve a new historic high before officially calling an end to the bear market.3
We’re not there yet.
But, it’s probably fair to say that we're flirting with a bull market.
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What's driving the recent rally?
Here's where analysts have some concerns.
The recent rally centers around a few big tech stocks and seems to be energized by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.
That means the rally lacks breadth. Your average S&P 500 company has only seen gains of less than 3% this year.3
The fact that the rally relies on the performance of a few high-flying stocks could spell volatility ahead.
What should I expect in the weeks ahead?
Hard to say. Markets seem to have momentum and we could see the rally continue.
However, recession and interest rate concerns are still bubbling under the surface, so let's not break out the party favors yet.4
Let's celebrate just how far we've come since the bear market began last year, but stay flexible enough to accept any pullbacks and volatility that might lie ahead.
Watchfully,
Bryan Daly
New Life Financial Planning
(561) 448-4401 office
(561) 246-1404 cell
Investment Adviser Representative of and advisory services offered
through Royal Fund Management, LLC, an SEC Registered Adviser
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P.S. Have any fun summer plans coming up, [CONTACT_FIRST_NAME]? Will you hit “reply” and share them with me? I’d love to know what you’re up to. :)
Sources:
Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability, or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.
Investment Adviser Representative of and Advisory Services Offered through Royal Fund Management LLC, an SEC Registered Adviser?
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1 年Bryan Daly, thank you for sharing this information. It is great to hear thoughts from a top notch #investmentadvisor on a #bullmarket
Entrepreneur || Connector ll Writer ll Customer Success
1 年Bryan Daly, how does one know how much to invest? Is that something you help people with? Create plans based on each person's abilities to invest and our financial goals?