Waves, Currents, and The Great Transition

We see the waves as we stand on the beach and look out into the ocean. They increase and decrease in size based on the weather, and weather changes every day.

We don’t see the currents. Their movement is continuous. Both can kill you, but you are more likely to die from a rip current than the waves of high surf.

The Great Resignation, the war in Ukraine, and even runaway inflation are waves … very big ones that demand our attention.

This article isn’t about waves. There is no 5-step guide to solve an immediate challenge. It is about the currents shaping our long-term future. Strap yourself in. We are diving deep under the surface to explore the Great Transition.

Context Matters

William Bridges said, “It isn’t the changes that do you in, it’s the transitions.”

This view is based on his model that every change has three parts:

1. An ending when the old way is over.
2. A transition period where there is turmoil. Bridges calls this the Neutral Zone. I have written about it as the Messy Middle of change.
3. A new beginning where the new way is familiar.

I wrote that we live in a perpetual state of transition in my book Make Change Work. The idea was that change occurs so quickly that we never reach a new beginning. This was based on the realization that the speed of change—barring a total world meltdown—is as slow as it will ever be in our lifetime.

But wait. There’s more.

The continuous acceleration of change is only part of the problem. There are three additional factors that make The Great Transition an especially scary time.

1. The rate (amount) of change. As we’ll discuss in a moment, tectonic shifts are occurring in seven areas that affect how we live, work, and lead. The Pandemic didn’t create these shifts. It only accelerated them. The results is change overload where people and organizations are overwhelmed to the point of ineffectiveness. PROCI reported that 73 percent of respondents to a recent survey said that their organizations are at or near the point of being completely saturated with change.
2. The endings aren’t visible and clear. The “ending” is clear if you are laid off from your job. It is traumatic, but it is clear. The big transitions that we recognize today started gradually and gained momentum. Our inability to detect gradual change creates an element of surprise that we could have – but usually didn’t – see coming.
3. The pace of navigating these changes is uneven and unpredictable. There is no schedule for when the rate and pace of change will achieve some level of predictability. Each of them will occur at its own pace. They will be done when they are done … and perhaps not at all. That creates problems because our brains crave certainty just as they desire other primary needs like food or sex. The result is anxiety, stress, and endless “what if” games consuming our thoughts.

Seven Simultaneous Shifts

Alfred Wegner, a German meteorologist and geophysicist, noticed that the maps of South America and Africa would fit like the pieces of a puzzle if you could remove the Atlantic Ocean. His observation, though initially ridiculed, became the theory called Continental Drift. This later evolved into what we now call Plate Tectonics. The theory states that the Earth’s rigid outer crusts continuously shift in plates floating on the molten upper portion of the mantle. These plates—which we know as continents—move at different rates relative to each other. They are always interacting to come together or spread apart.

The seven interrelated shifts that make up the Great Transition are:

• Demographics. The birth rate in the United States continues to be below the replacement rate. Baby Boomers are no longer the dominant generation in terms of numbers, but they remain a force in terms of financial position. The nation is diversifying, as well. The number of Americans identifying as “White” fell from 63.7 percent in 2010 to 57.8 percent in 2020.
• Migration: A Pew Research study reported that more people lived outside the country of their birth in 2015 than ever before. The United States has been the main destination for international migration since 1970. COVID-19 slowed the migration rate, but it is doubtful that it will significantly alter it. Domestic migration is driven by economic, environmental, social, political, and educational factors. Our ability to effectively manage migration in all of its forms affects every aspect of societal … and organizational success.
• Political polarization. Political polarization could easily be designated as an effect created by demographic, migration, and economic shifts rather than its own cause of disruption and change. I list it separately for one important reason: The choices to be made in the areas crucial to our ability to flourish as a society require cooperation and collaboration with others who don’t share our view. Here’s our reality: Roughly 90 percent of Trump and Biden supporters in the 2020 Presidential election believed that a victory by the opponent would cause lasting harm to the United States.
• Values shifts: The values Americans view as important have changed dramatically over the past 20 years. Younger Americans view patriotism, religion, and marriage as much less important than the generations that came before them. Another study found that 65 percent of adults believed that people become rich because they had more advantages in life. The same study reported that 71 percent believe that people are poor because they faced more obstacles. These value shifts can be attributed to generational, migration, and political change. They do, however, point to an important transition in how our organizations and institutions work.
• Geopolitical risks: ?Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the dominant story as of this writing. Every indication is that this war will alter the energy and economic dynamics for years to come regardless of the outcome. It is far from the only geopolitical risk faced by the world. China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its relationship with Taiwan threaten global economies. Likewise, the Middle East continues to be a ticking time bomb that explodes when we least expect it. All of these threaten world stability and security. Most important, they make reevaluating our alliances crucial.
• Technology-driven Innovation: Technology has always been a driver for change and disruption. Mark Mills, a Manhattan Institute senior fellow and faculty fellow at Northwestern University wrote, “Technology matters because it improves humanity’s ability not only to survive … but to do so more easily. It is the most powerful way to improve productivity.” The convergence of information, machine capacity, and materials will open the door to innovation in every area of our lives and, potentially, help us address other transitions that are underway.
• Climate change. The argument over whether climate change is man-made or natural doesn’t change these facts. The surface temperature of the planet has risen about 2 degrees Fahrenheit since the late 19th century. The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have decreased. The oceans’ temperatures have risen, and the global sea level has risen about 8 inches since the late 19th century. ?Record high-temperature events are increasing. The impact of climate change on how we live and work will be undeniable. The only question is its severity.

Any one of these changes would be important. That they are all happening at once ranks as a once every lifetime scenario.

What It Means for Leaders

The Great Transition is messy, uncomfortable, and scary. It is also the time when the best leaders will shine.

Your job is to help those you influence through the painful process of moving from the past they knew to a New Next that they might not yet see.?I have written about seven broad changes leaders must make here. In the meantime, here are seven actionable steps you can start taking right now.

• Acknowledge reality.?Respect the past but focus on a positive vision for the future.?Nothing ever changes until people acknowledge the truth. Be honest and open but not defeatist. Some of the traditions, policies, and practices which served you well in the past will continue, but many are no longer suited for today’s world.
• Create emotional readiness to counteract fear.?People, organizations, and industries change for one of two basic reasons: crisis pushes them to change, or opportunity pulls them to do so. You occasionally see a combination of both, but there is usually one primary diver. Most of us wait on crisis. The best leaders create emotional readiness to seize opportunities. While many people are hesitant to change, everyone wants to get better. Leaders create momentum and ensure long-term success with a relentless focus on making their organizations indispensable.
• Commit to transparency and over communicate.?People want to know what is and isn’t changing. They want to know how things are going, what’s coming next, and why actions are (or are not) being taken. You don’t want people to feel as if everything is changing if it isn’t. You also don’t want them to assume that nothing is different. A lack of transparency creates a vacuum that will be filled by conspiracy theorists and imaginations on over drive.
• Tell positive stories early and often.?Facts impart knowledge. Stories create connections and feeling. Feelings inspire people to stick with a change even when doing so is uncomfortable and uncertain. The?elements of a great story?are the same if you are making a successful movie or leading organizational transformation. You need a character with which everyone can identify, a believable plot with a conflict to overcome, struggle, and resolution. Sharing positive stories about real people achieving results helps overcome resistance.
• Use resistance as your friend. Change is hard. Resistance, risk, and fear are real. The important decisions and strategies on which you need to execute can be scary. If, on the other hand, there is no resistance, there is no substantial change. Every piece of honest resistance you receive represents a sincere question or concern. Why wouldn’t you want to hear them?
• Ensure the important stuff continues.?It is easy to become so fixated on the tasks and activities of delivering results that caring about people, creating opportunities for involvement, and providing support falls lower on the priority list. Compassionate authenticity and connection are crucial for even the smallest transition. They are required for navigating the future ahead of us.
• Go first.?Ross Perot, founder of EDS and Perot Systems, once told me, “Leaders eat last, but they go first.” His meaning was more than a pithy play on words. Your team is watching. It is more difficult for them to get excited about where the organization is going if they sense reticence from you. Your influence is highest when you model the willingness to pursue change that you want from others.

?Most of our days are spent dealing with the waves. We either battle or ride them depending on the situation. Identifying and navigating the currents is the deeper task. It is the one that allows you to see over the horizon, challenge the status quo, and ensure your long-term success.

Randy Pennington is an award-winning author, speaker, and leading authority on helping organizations deliver positive results in a world of uncertainty and change. To learn more or to engage Randy to assist your organization, visit?www.penningtongroup.com, email?[email protected], or call 972-980-9857 (U.S.).