Waves of AI change

I think we all recognise that adapting to AI use within our various organisations is going to be quite a challenge. To date I’ve seen less awareness of the fact that there will be waves of change, with each wave more impactful than the last. Here’s a broad outline of how I think things may evolve in the workplace:

First wave: AI as support tools

Initially, AI may be seen as a set of support tools, not conceptually all that different from spreadsheets or other productivity software. These AI-powered tools will be designed to enhance human productivity by automating routine tasks, providing insights, and assisting with decision-making. Employees will still maintain control over their work, with AI serving as a powerful aid to boost efficiency and effectiveness. This is relatively “safe” AI, the kind most often referenced by AI proponents.

The good: More productivity! Woo-hoo!

The bad: You snooze, you lose. If you, or the organisation you work for, can’t adapt fast you risk losing relevance in an eye-blink.

The ugly: Even in the first wave there will be mass layoffs in some job categories (eg. copywriters, content creators, customer service agents). Even in an ideal scenario where as many (or more) new jobs are created as old ones are lost this will take time, with plenty of angst during the transition.

Second wave: AI as colleagues

As AI becomes more sophisticated, it may take on roles more akin to workplace colleagues. AI entities will work alongside humans, performing specific jobs with minimal supervision. If you aim to put a positive spin on things you describe this wave as freeing humans to concentrate on creative, empathetic, and strategic roles, while AI handles data-driven, repetitive, and computational tasks. A less positive spin might note the increasing opportunities for a decreasing head count.

The good: A lot less of us will be doing boring, repetitive jobs.

The bad: A lot less of us may be doing any jobs at all.

The ugly: Paranoia much?

Third wave: AI as supervisors

With their inherent capacity to know and keep track of more stuff than any human can, AI may gradually assume the role of workplace supervisors. AI may simply become best-placed to direct human employees to perform tasks that optimise overall productivity and profitability. These supervisory roles may span all the way from determining production schedules and shipping logistics to high-level strategic decision-making. Additionally (and perhaps creepily), AI may be tasked with monitoring and assessing human performance, providing feedback and recommendations for improvement.

The good: Getting the basics right, consistently over time, is one of the keys to success for any organisation. AI supervision will (eventually) reliably deliver ideal execution, on demand.

The bad: It’s hard to imagine people accepting subservience to AI - except we already have. Algorithms rule our lives, just not overtly, yet.

The ugly: Because people will probably object to AI bosses it’s likely that reality will be obfuscated. They may not be above us in the org chart, but they’ll still be in charge.

Fourth wave: AI as ineffable oracles

As AI capabilities surpass human understanding, some AI systems may come to be treated as a form of "local god" within organisations. These advanced AI entities will operate in ways that are increasingly beyond the comprehension and critique of human employees. In such cases, the AI's decisions and actions may be accepted as mysterious yet infallible. This shift in perception could lead to a new dynamic in the workplace, where humans defer to AI for guidance and direction, trusting in its superior situational awareness and decision-making capabilities.

The good: For AI to gain this level of trust from us it will have to give us good reason to trust it - that is, it will actually need to consistently provide us with good guidance.

The bad: AI is probably going to get really good at subtly manipulating our perceptions (noting that this doesn’t require ill intent - it may be manipulating us towards “happiness”).

The ugly: Consider the story of the Land of the Lotus Eaters (the version from Homer or the version from Star Trek - either will do.)

Each of these waves of change will profoundly challenge our basic assumptions about how organisations should function, and about our own roles and relevance at work. I expect we’ll find ways to adapt over time but how fast are these waves going to hit? And how certain is all of this anyway? I doubt anyone can say for sure but:

• Wave one is a given as it's already under way, albeit with products that are still flaky at times.
• Wave two probably needs capable and reliable AI agents (i.e., AI that take a broad goal and turn it into sub-tasks they can implement under their own steam). Good chance this will be real in a commercially relevant way by later this year.
• Wave three also requires agentic AI but in a limited way it's already here. In an enterprise the "copilots" that are beginning to help us code, and write, and organise our meetings etc. aren't working solely for us as individuals. When they remind us that we have a backlog of incomplete tasks, or helpfully point out to us that we tend to get short in meetings with Karen from accounting, we are not necessarily the only ones benefiting from those insights.
• Wave four is tougher to estimate. In its most complete form it may depend on whether we can get to AGI/ASI (Artificial General/Super Intelligence) just by building bigger models or if we still need some additional fundamental breakthroughs. Might be in two years, might be in twenty. Perhaps we should hope for twenty.

However it all pans out in reality, if you’re an executive with change management in your area of responsibility I really hope you’ve had your Weetbix.

Note: Posts with images get more views, apparently. I’ve used AI-generated images in the past, which was fun for a while, but one of the things AI is doing is creating a world in which reality and authenticity are becoming luxury goods. Thus I now choose to use my own photos. I’m not claiming they’re relevant or good photos, but they are my photos, taken thoughtfully and with care by an actual person.