Waves of affordable EVs are hitting the global market, my prediction as they hit the USA.

??Why are EVs Rapidly Getting Cheaper?

EVs off lease - The last three years have seen a lot of EVs being purchased via a lease. This means a large number of roughly 3-year-old EVs are now on the car market at very affordable price points.

Ex: 2022 Nissan Leaf HATCHBACK 4D originally $35,000+ is available for $17,000 (before the $4,000 used car rebate) with less than 20,000 miles!

?? Tesla Price Drops - While many car companies are hyper-focused on high-end vehicles, Tesla has cut new car prices several times. This has directly tanked the value of used Tesla's, and is part of the reason Hertz did such a large sell-off.

?? Hyundai FTW - Not only has Hyundai surprised the entire car market with their sales of their Ioniq 5 and Ioniq 6 EVs, but they also have been turning a profit!

?? VinFast has arrived - The Vietnamese automaker that has been doing limited imports to California is now opening its first US car dealership in North Carolina, next to their manufacturing and assembly plant that will soon be completed. This should qualify them for the RIA “Made in USA” tax deduction. With their affordable model being only $20,000 this would drastically undercut the entire new EV market.

?? BYD inbound - In the 4th quarter of 2023 BYD delivered 526,000 EVs, beating Tesla’s 484,000, which were both records for EV deliveries for a single company. With BYD's lowest price point being the $10,000 BYD Seagull their entrance into the US car market would drastically undercut the most affordable EVs available.

???? What does this mean for the average American?

• ?? EV Fleet explosion. Operating costs are the key driver for many fleets, especially for take-home fleets, corporate cars, and hospitality/delivery fleets where cost savings go directly into the operator's pocket so it is a clear choice.
• ?? Multifamily housing charging shortage. Apartments, condos, townhomes, and student housing will all see huge increases in EVs and will need affordable at-home charging options but few companies are addressing this at any significant scale.
• ?? New EV price reduction. To keep a stake in the US market, EV makers from Japan, US, and Germany will all bring their affordable low-end EV options, but they will also compress their existing vehicle pricing across the board to retain loyal customers.
• Used vehicle price DESTRUCTION! This flood of affordable EVs will destroy both the used EV and ICE car market. Getting a 3-year-old vehicle for below $20,000 will be the norm! Or nearly free after-tax rebate?
• ? Electric utility compensation. To help support this new load (electricity demand) on the grid utilities are employing a broad array of tools to push charging to when it is best for the grid, but the volumes described above will require high participation. Many are estimating 50% of EVs will need to have managed charging. The only way to guarantee that is to compensate EV owners who charge (or don’t charge) when it's best for the grid.

?? If you read this as a ‘flywheel’, then you can understand how this can drive a dramatic increase in EV adoption, especially for cost-conscious buyers like students, retirees, and low-income earners.

?? This could grow from the current 40% year-over-year growth prediction, which is already extremely fast, up to 60% growth in Suburban and Rural areas. To put that into perspective, if this increase were nationwide in the US, it would mean:

• 2023 EV sales were 1.2M (7.6% of all vehicles)
• At a 40% growth rate over 5 years, EVs would total 6.4M in 2028, representing 40% of all vehicles sold in the US.
• At a 60% growth rate over 5 years, EVs would total 12.6M in 2028, representing 80% of all vehicles sold in the US.

This is unlikely to be nationwide but is likely to hit suburban and rural places the hardest since they are least prepared for the charging required.

???? When Norway went through this adoption curve the EVs were more expensive, there were fewer options, and the entire country was bought into the transition. This helped to make the transition go more smoothly and have a low impact on other sectors of their economy.

???? In the US, as is the norm now, we are fractured, with several major players in the US auto industry fighting the inevitable transition to EVs. Because of this, the impacts of this transition will be much more painful for some people, industries, and regional governments.

Don't say I didn't warn you!