THE WATER CRISIS AND THE RISK OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY BLACKOUT IN BRAZIL

Fernando Alcoforado*

This article aims to analyze: 1) the current water crisis in Brazil with its causes and consequences; 2) the water crisis, the risk of an electrical blackout in Brazil and its consequences; and 3) how to avoid future electrical blackouts in Brazil and its consequences. As the main conclusion of this article, it was found that the water crisis and the consequent risk of blackouts occurred due to failures in the planning of the Brazilian electricity sector, whose solutions to avoid future power blackouts and their consequences were also proposed.

1. The water crisis, its causes and consequences

The current water crisis in Brazil is considered the worst in history. The water crisis currently affecting Brazil is related to the lack of rain that results from a combination of factors, such as meteorological issues, poor management of water resources, lack of adequate infrastructure to manage the increased demand for water, inefficient public policies, non-use of alternative sources for supply, non-existence of environmental conservation and lack of education of the population to promote the rational consumption of water. The deforestation of the Amazon forest is directly related to the lack of rain in the country, which occurs because the water vapor formed in the tropical waters of the Atlantic Ocean is fed by the humidity of the Amazon forest. All this humidity crosses the Amazon until it finds the Andes Mountains wall. There, part of the humidity is transformed into rain and feeds the springs of large rivers, such as the Amazon River. The other part is directed to the Midwest, Southeast and South regions of Brazil, causing rainfall.

The current water crisis in Brazil and in the world confirms the predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the UN that with climate change, extreme events, such as what we are experiencing on our planet, will become more frequent and with intensities larger. Despite the evidence that comes from climate science, the Bolsonaro government's environmental policy, instead of protecting the environment, favors deforestation and fires thinking only of the advance of the agricultural frontier, of agribusiness, which affects the climate in Brazil. Among the consequences of the water crisis in Brazil are the reduction in the supply of food, the decrease in the water supply for the population and the compromised supply of electricity in Brazil. To face water scarcity, some attitudes should be adopted by the Brazilian government at all levels, such as using water rationally, promoting water reuse, using rainwater, conserving watersheds and river sources and adopt more efficient irrigation techniques.

Despite Brazil being one of the countries that has the largest amount of fresh water in the world, with 12% of the planet's total, the lack of water is a reality in many of its regions. Furthermore, water is not evenly distributed in the Brazilian territory, for example the Amazon region has 70% of the freshwater reserve — and only 7% of the population — 15% of the freshwater reserve is in the Center-West, 6% in the South and Southeast and only 3% in the Northeast. The lack of water in Brazil compromises not only the availability of water for domestic, industrial and agricultural use, but also the reservoirs of hydroelectric plants, causing serious impacts on the economy as a whole. The current water crisis in Brazil is contributing to low water levels in the reservoirs of hydroelectric plants responsible for the supply of 62% of Brazil's electricity.

2. The water crisis, the risk of an electricity blackout in Brazil and its consequences

Brazil faces a new period of water scarcity that began in July 2020 when the inflow of rains was 32% below the historical average. Note that this problem has been repeated in recent years, but not with the degree of intensity seen today. As a result, the volume of water stored in the reservoirs of hydroelectric plants enters the dry period of 2021, which extends until November, with worrying water levels in its reservoirs. It is worth noting that there was a water crisis in October 2012, when, for the first time in history, the National Electric System Operator (ONS) determined that all thermoelectric power plants in Brazil operate at "full speed", in order to preserve the water level in the reservoirs. This was the solution adopted to avoid the electrical blackout in 2012.

It should be noted that, between 2011 and 2020, there was a great expansion of the installed capacity of the Brazilian electric system, when there was a 43% growth in the generation park with great diversification, since the generation capacity from non-water sources doubled, with emphasis on the thermal, wind and solar sources. Thus, the electricity production capacity increased, while the relative participation of hydroelectricity decreased. While there was an expansion of electricity generation capacity, in the same period, there was low growth in electricity consumption, with an increase of only 19%, reflecting the years of very low economic growth in Brazil.

The growth of the Brazilian generating complex with the slow evolution of consumption indicate that the Brazilian electrical system has a slack in its installed capacity. This difference is due to the fact that large investments were decided in the past, based on expectations of consumption growth that did not take place. More recently, the free market has also started to make possible investments in generation in significant volume, associated with the lower cost of wind and solar energy and the setting by the government of a deadline for new projects of alternative energy sources and their customers to benefit from subsidies in the tariffs for access to the basic transmission network. It can be concluded that, if electricity consumption had grown in line with what was expected in the past (about 20% higher than that seen today), Brazil would be in a really critical situation, with the need for rationing to avoid blackouts.

In the face of the country's biggest water crisis in 91 years, such as the one currently recorded, the fear arose that the country may be forced, once again, to live with energy rationing to avoid the electricity blackout, a hypothesis that has been denied by the government. Lately, the National Electric System Operator (ONS) has warned of the risk of blackouts as of October, if the production of additional electricity does not increase by at least 7.5%. The ONS recommended the federal government to increase the use of thermoelectric plants and consider importing energy from neighboring countries, since, with the drought that affects the country, the supply of hydroelectric plants will be insufficient. Currently, the reservoirs in the Southeast and Midwest regions, which account for 70% of the country's energy generation, operate with 22.5% of the storage capacity. This number is below the one registered in the 2001 energy crisis, when the dams ended August with 23.4% of water volume.

President Jair Bolsonaro's decree determined that federal public agencies must reduce energy consumption by 10% to 20% between September 2021 and April 2022. The Ministry of Mines and Energy announced that it will reward consumers who save electricity. To alleviate the problem, President Jair Bolsonaro made an absurd plea for people to save energy by turning off a point of light in their homes as if that would solve the problem (!!!).The solution found by the government is terrible because it activates the thermoelectric plants, which results in an exorbitant increase in electricity tariffs in Brazil. The last readjustment in the tariff flags carried out by the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel), in June, increased the cost of red flag 2 by 52%. The value ranged from R$ 6.24 to R$ 9.49 for each 100 kWh (kilowatt-hour) consumed. Internal government calculations point to the need for the level 2 red flag, currently at R$ 9.49 for every 100 kilowatt-hours (kWh), to be raised to something between R$ 15 and R$ 20.

In November, when the rainy season begins, the ONS predicts that the Southeast/Midwest reservoirs will reach 10% of their capacity. To preserve water in hydroelectric reservoirs, the government has been activating thermoelectric plants, which are more expensive and polluting. Exceptional measures have also been proposed, such as the activation of additional thermoelectric plants, the forecast of an auction to contract "reserve" power generation plants, the expansion of the possibility of activating thermoelectric plants without an energy commercialization contract in force, the increase from the import of energy from Argentina and Uruguay, the exceptional operation of part of the water systems, the flexibilization of the storage and flow limits of hydroelectric plants, the flexibilization of the safety limits of the transmission lines in order to "transport" more energy from the Northeast and North to Southeast and Midwest and the adoption of a program that will encourage large consumers, such as the industry, to save electricity and shift their consumption outside peak hours in exchange for financial compensation.?

Nothing ensures, however, that these measures will prevent the occurrence of "blackouts" demonstrating, fully and unequivocally, the incompetence of those responsible for the Brazilian electricity sector, whether in terms of lack of forecasting of the water crisis, failures in the monitoring of power plants' reservoirs and, above all, incompetence in planning the Brazilian electricity sector.

3. How to avoid future electrical blackouts in Brazil and its consequences

The interconnected electrical system in Brazil, called the National Interconnected System (SIN), is composed of four large subsystems, in addition to several isolated systems. The subsystems are described below: 1) Southeast/Midwest subsystem covering the Southeast and Center-West regions, with the exception of the state of Mato Grosso do Sul; 2) Southern Subsystem covering the South region, in addition to the state of Mato Grosso do Sul; 3) Northeast Subsystem covering the Northeast region, with the exception of the state of Maranh?o; and 4) Northern Subsystem covering part of the states of Pará, Tocantins, Maranh?o, Rond?nia and Acre. Only part of the North region is not connected to the SIN, which corresponds to 3.4% of the country's electricity production capacity, which is composed of small isolated systems located mainly in the Amazon region. In these places, energy is generated mainly by oil-fired thermoelectric plants -more expensive and more polluting- whose cost is shared with all electricity consumers in Brazil, who pay a charge on their electricity bill called CCC (Fossil Fuel Consumption Account ) (Figure 1).

The interconnected electric system in Brazil can be considered an exceptional case in the world because it is a large hydrothermal system, with a strong predominance of hydroelectric plants and with many owners, state and private. The National Interconnected System (SIN) was created with the objective of obtaining the maximum use of the Brazilian energy potential, considering that its territory is very extensive and there are not enough energy generating plants to supply, in a complete, reliable and cheap way, each region of independently.

Figure 1- Brazil's electrical system

Source: https://journals.openedition.org/confins/10797

In the interconnected system, the energy that leaves each generating plant goes through a certain number of transmission lines that carry a large amount of energy at high voltage. When arriving close to the cities that will receive this electricity, the high voltage transmission lines supply substations from which medium or low voltage distribution lines leave to serve the final electricity consumers. To carry out these operations, it is necessary to have a body that coordinates this work, in this case the National System Operator (ONS), which has the help of 3,800 cargo systems throughout the country, which receive and put into practice the guidelines of the ONS.

The interconnected electrical system in Brazil or SIN (National Interconnected System), operated by the ONS (National System Operator) is a coordination and control system, consisting of power generation and distribution companies located in different regions of Brazil. Considering that most of the electric energy production in Brazil is of hydraulic origin, the subsystems of the SIN are all interconnected, in order to make better use of the seasonality of the rivers and exchange surplus electric energy during the flood period in each region. In Brazil, due to its continental proportions, if the Northeast faces rainy periods and the South and Southeast experience severe droughts, and vice versa, it is possible, for example, to send energy generated by hydroelectric plants from one region to another.

In addition, locations that are not served by hydroelectric power plants can receive cleaner and cheaper energy from other locations. Thus, the activation of thermoelectric plants is restricted to periods when this energy is cheaper or there is a risk of running out of water in the reservoirs of the hydroelectric plants. One might ask: could the risk of electrical blackout be avoided? The answer is yes with planning that seems not to be practiced by the current government in all sectors, including the Brazilian electricity sector. To plan Brazil's electricity system, it would be necessary, initially, to draw up scenarios on the evolution of electricity demand in the coming years (10 years or more) to determine how it can be supplied using existing energy sources in operation and the new ones to be implemented. As in Brazil, most of the existing energy sources are hydroelectric, it is important to statistically estimate how the flows will occur in the rivers that feed their reservoirs, taking into account the long-term history of their flows and the drought periods that may compromise them . This analysis is essential to determine, in advance, what will happen to the water level in the hydroelectric reservoirs and, consequently, estimate the energy and power to be generated by each hydroelectric plant.

In addition to determining what can be generated by hydroelectric plants, it is necessary to evaluate the level of generation that can be obtained with other energy sources in operation, especially those from solar and wind energy, which are of intermittent generation. As solar energy and wind energy are intermittent, it is necessary to estimate the power available at each plant during the planning horizon, taking into account the variation in solar radiation levels and wind speed, respectively, at the locations of the solar plants and wind. This analysis is essential to determine, in advance, the energy and power to be generated by each solar and wind power plant in operation. Having estimated the energy and power to be generated by each plant in the electrical system, the next step is to determine the energy to be generated and the power to be installed additionally to supply the long-term demand. Subsequently, electricity generation alternatives must be evaluated taking into account the most economical size of the plant, the duration of its implementation, its investment and operating costs, and its locational advantages. The alternatives that provide the greatest benefit/cost ratio for the final consumer must be chosen.

In recent years, the expansion of the electricity generation system in Brazil has mainly occurred with the increase of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind energy, which are intermittent to meet demand variations. In recent years, there has been no implementation of new hydroelectric plants with their respective reservoirs to increase energy supply. This expansion occurred with the drop in the participation of hydroelectric plants as a proportion of the country's total energy supply, a fact that contributed to increase the vulnerability of the country's electricity supply. In 2020, the Ministry of Mines and Energy presented an expansion plan for electricity until 2026, with an investment of R$ 174 billion. This investment may be insufficient if the Brazilian economy grows again because there is a forecast that a deficit in the energy supply of the order of 15 gigawatts will occur in 2026.

The "blackout crisis" may be repeated in the near future in Brazil between 2021 and 2022. If Brazil grows its GDP in the order of 2.5% to 3% per year, it will undoubtedly face energy shortages and higher prices due to the use of thermoelectric plants, even if the planned investments materialize. The blackout could occur if there is no greater expansion of solar and wind energy in Brazil, which should operate producing electricity in the amount necessary to compensate for the drop in hydroelectric energy production due to the water crisis. This would be the solution that would make it possible to avoid the reduction in the water level in the reservoirs of the hydroelectric plants and prevent the use of thermoelectric plants with the consequent environmental pollution and increase in the electricity tariff caused by them. It is necessary to dimension and implement the energy to be generated and the power needed in solar and wind power plants to make this solution viable. Parallel to this solution, policies to encourage energy savings with the production of more efficient electrical equipment and reduction of electricity consumption by the population and the productive sector should be adopted.

It is therefore necessary to plan the expansion of the electrical system and also coordinate the joint operation of the hydroelectric plants with the sources of solar and wind energy and the other plants in the system (conventional and nuclear thermoelectric plants). With the Ministry of Mines and Energy's plan to expand electricity by 2026, the share of solar and wind energy sources in Brazil's energy matrix should rise from the current 9% to 18% by 2026. It is necessary, however, that there is an increase in the capacity of these energy sources beyond the 18% expected to compensate for the drop in hydroelectric energy production due to the water crisis. One can also consider as a solution the use of biomass (wood chips or sugarcane bagasse) as an additional source of energy to be used. Currently, biomass is responsible for 9% of the Brazilian energy matrix. The generation with the use of biomass would be done through thermoelectric plants.

From the foregoing, it is quite evident that the risk of blackout resulted from the lack of a planning strategy for the electricity sector that took into account the threat of drought in the areas of the reservoirs of hydroelectric plants, not consider the expansion of wind, solar and biomass energy sources to the level necessary to compensate for the deficiencies of hydroelectric generation with the purpose of maintaining the water levels of the hydroelectric reservoirs compatible with the needs of electricity production and, also, the adoption of policies to encourage energy savings with the production of electrical equipment more efficient and reduction of electricity consumption by the population and the productive sector. Therefore, managers of the national electricity system have lacked the adoption of a rational energy policy such as the one just proposed.

* Fernando Alcoforado, 81, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic?planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globaliza??o (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,https://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globaliza??o e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporanea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, S?o Paulo, 2010), Amaz?nia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, S?o Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econ?mico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudan?a Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revolu??es Científicas, Econ?micas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Inven??o de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017),?Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associa??o Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019) and A humanidade amea?ada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, S?o Paulo, 2021).