Watching the merry-go-round

Party leadership elections happen more frequently and take longer, but do they produce better results?

We have become accustomed to regular changes in the leadership of the main political parties in the United Kingdom.?Between 1963 and 1983, there were eight leadership elections (four for Labour leader, two each for the Conservative and Liberal parties).?Between 2004 and 2024, there were seventeen (six Conservative, six Liberal Democrat and five Labour).

As the parties moved to give their wider membership greater involvement in deciding who would lead them, the length of the contests has increased.?This was perhaps inevitable.?When the parliamentary parties chose the leader, they were picking from amongst their colleagues, and so an election could be conducted in less than a month.?The Liberal party election in 1976 following Jeremy Thorpe’s resignation is an outlier amongst these, but, at 58 days, is still short compared with more recent exercises.

The current Conservative leadership campaign will see the longest period between the close of nominations and the final result (92 days, compared to an average of 41 days in the previous seven elections). If we take a leadership campaign as running from the moment it is certain to happen (such as when the previous leader announces they will stand down, dies or another candidate formally declares a challenge), the 2005 leadership contest was longer in total (208 days in 2005; 116 in 2024).?Michael Howard deliberately allowed a longer nomination period (154 days, as opposed to 24 days in 2024) by announcing that he would stand down as leader immediately after losing the general election, but not initiating the contest itself until the party conference in October.

Since 1980, the average length of Conservative leadership contests from the trigger point to result is 54 days.

Since 1980, most Labour party leadership elections have culminated at or around the party conference, so this has dictated the timeline.?The average length of the contest was 91 days, although this falls to 77 days by removing the outlier; the 1988 campaign when Tony Benn announced in the February that he would challenge Neil Kinnock.?By comparison, the campaigning period since 2010 has been 87 days.

The Liberal Democrats held the longest contest in recent history (259 days), triggered by Jo Swinson losing her seat at the 2019 election, but the initiation of the actual campaign was delayed by the covid pandemic. It was only a revolt by the membership that prevented it being put off until the following year.?This contrasts with the pattern of short, sharp contests between 2006 and 2019, taking an average of 56 days.

Not surprisingly, the frequency of party leadership contests correlates to periods of relative instability in a party.?There is an argument that a lengthy leadership campaign, particularly in the aftermath of a poor general election performance, focuses attention on internal divisions rather than developing a compelling narrative.?On the other hand, there is a case that a longer nomination period allows some reflection before the competitive fray, producing a leader who is better placed to meet the prevailing political environment.

Richard Lambert

pragmatic advocacy from Pragmatix Advisory is a regular bite-sized briefing from our resident former trade association CEO and policy director which offers background information and insight to help anyone campaigning and lobbying.

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