Watch Party

While I do not expect the Electoral College's outcome to be clear on election night, many of us will be glued to our screens anyway. Here is a summary of what is at stake and what returns might indicate trends in the overall results.

What Is Up for Grabs?

President

Vice President Harris faces former President Donald Trump; President Joe Biden left the presidential race on July 21, 2024. Currently, polling for the popular vote shows Harris with the tiniest lead, while Trump leads in most battleground states.

Counties to Watch

Here is a baker's dozen counties to watch for clues on where the presidential race is headed. Some classic bellwethers almost always anticipate the state's outcome, while others are critical strategic battlegrounds where Trump and Harris seek to narrow their opponent's margin.

1) Fayette County, Georgia - 7:00 PM EST poll closing

2) Baldwin County, Georgia - 7:00 PM EST poll closing

3) Nash County, North Carolina - 7:30 PM EST poll closing

4) Baldwin County, North Carolina - 7:30 PM EST poll closing

5) Muskegon County, Michigan - 8:00 PM EST poll closing

6) Saginaw County, Michigan - 8:00 PM EST poll closing

7) Cumberland County, Pennsylvania - 8:00 PM EST poll closing

8) Bucks County, Pennsylvania - 8:00 PM EST poll closing

9) Northhampton County, Pennsylvania - 8:00 PM EST poll closing

10) Ozaukee County, Wisconsin - 9:00 PM EST poll closing

11) Sauk County, Wisconsin - 9:00 PM EST poll closing

12) Maricopa County, Arizona - 9:00 PM EST poll closing

13) Washoe County, Nevada -- 10:00 PM EST poll closing

Senate

Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate; 23 of the 34 Senate seats up for election are Democratic-held, and I expect the GOP to pick up at least two seats (West Virginia and Montana) and flip the chamber. Four seats are too close to call, and they will go a long way toward determining whether the GOP will retain control after the 2026 elections.

1) Michigan - Open

2) Ohio - Brown

3) Pennsylvania - Casey, Jr.

4) Wisconsin - Baldwin

House of Representatives

Republicans hold a slim 220-212 majority in the House; Democrats can flip control by winning some of the toss-up seats identified in the article I published a month ago. Even with the finish line in sight, control of the House remains as murky as ever, and Democrats hope to net four seats to get over the 218-seat threshold for a majority. This cycle has ten vulnerable incumbents, and election results will determine the majority in the 119th Congress.

1) Maine-02 - Jared Golden (Democrat) 8:00 PM EST poll closing

2) New York-22 - Brandon Williams (Republican) 9:00 PM EST poll closing

3) New York-04 - Anthony D'Esposito (Republican) 9:00 PM EST poll closing

4) Colorado-08 - Yadira Caraveo (Democrat) 9:00 PM EST poll closing

5) Nebraska-02 - Don Bacon (Republican) 7:00 PM EST poll closing

6) Washington-03 - Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democrat) 11:00 PM EST poll closing

7) Oregon-05 - Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Republican) 11:00 PM EST poll closing

8) California-13 - John Duarte (Republican) 11:00 PM EST poll closing

9)California-27 - Mike Garcia (Republican) 11:00 PM EST poll closing

100 Alaska-AL - Mary Peltola (Democrat) midnight EST poll closing

Governor

Eleven states will hold gubernatorial elections this year, and only three sitting governors will seek re-election. Only the New Hampshire contest is a toss-up, with the other ten pre-determined. The North Carolina contest between Lt. Governor Mark Robinson (Republican) and Attorney General Josh Stein (Democrat) was expected to be much closer until allegations surfaced that Robinson made racist comments on several pornography websites. Most of Robinson's staff resigned, and Stein took a comfortable lead in the polls.

State Legislatures

85 of the 99 state legislative chambers in the US hold elections in 2024, with Republicans currently in control of nearly 55% of seats nationwide. As ticket-splitting declined over the last 20 years, more states are dominated by a single party controlling both legislative chambers and the governor's office. Today, there are 23 Republican trifectas and 17 Democratic trifectas.

This year, 5807 state chamber seats are on the ballot. The GOP has consistently held a majority in most state legislative chambers since 2011.

The primaries were not kind to incumbents in 2024, with 34 Democrats and 134 Republicans losing.

Election night should be a time to celebrate the exercise of our right to vote and a free press to report the results. I'm taking a few days off to rest up for the next phase of this cycle, from the election to the inauguration. Could you pop the corn and warm up your television remote for election night 2024?