Watch Out for Egypt

Years ago, I told my Chaldean father figure that we were about to travel to Egypt. “Don’t let them cheat you,” he said. “They are famous for that.” I was a bit shocked, but I held my tongue. Sure enough, one day an Egyptian vender sold me a small packet of cumin, claiming it was saffron, one of the most expensive spices in the world, and one that my “Chaldean mother” had requested I bring back for her. OK, that was a single experience, but is there a lesson here?

In 1979, Israel and Egypt signed a peace treaty, which has survived – more or less - until now, though it produced a very cold peace. Even so, it caused Egypt to receive widespread opprobrium from the rest of the Arab world, from which they have long wanted to be absolved. Anyhow, according to Joseph Puder in a Jewish News Service article, Egypt has been violating the treaty for years, increasing its military forces in the Sinai Peninsula, building tunnels across the Suez Canal, and massively increasing its arms storage along the canal.

In an article in the Detroit Jewish News, Kobi Erez of ZOA quotes Lt. Col. Eli Dekel, formerly head of terrain research at the IDF Intelligence Division. Dekel says that Egypt is digging huge “tunnels in the Sinai Peninsula, with entrances up to seven meters wide and likely tens of meters long, designed to store strategic weapons. These tunnels mirror similar structures already built on the western bank of the Suez Canal, with approximately 60 such tunnels in place.” Who do they plan to use all this military might against? Well, the only powerful country to the east of Egypt is Israel.

The Biden administration, as a good-bye gift, just sold almost $5 billion in heavy armaments to Egypt, all designed for offensive purposes, not defensive. That is on top of the $1.3 billion a year that the U.S. usually grants to Egypt in military aid, and it follows a 2023 military package of $235 million. Oh, and Egypt sealed an arms deal worth $3.5 billion with Russia in 2014. Why? Does Egypt expect Israel to attack? Or is Egypt positioning itself to attack Israel?

Many articles have been written about how the U.S., acting as an advocate for Hamas, long opposed any Israeli attempt to close off the Rafah crossing between Israel and Egypt, since this was a highly active and lucrative site of weapons smuggling between the two entities. Likewise, the U.S. and much of the rest of the world have opposed allowing Israel to maintain control of the Philadelphi Corridor between Gaza and Egypt, which it clearly used to continually resupply Hamas, since no other reason makes sense. Obviously, Egypt obviously wants to continue enjoying that income from smuggling across their border with Gaza, but it may be just as interested in making sure Hamas always is restocked generously with weapons to use against Israel.

Why would Egypt set its sights on Israel? It is a long trek across the Sinai Desert to both Israel and Gaza after all, and Egypt currently is in special financial trouble after losing a reported $ 7 billion from the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Even beyond that, its economic situation has long been shaky, and the Egyptian government is perpetually just one coup away from falling, even though it still aspires to regain its days of greatness, as do Iran and Turkey, competitors who still dream longingly of their own ancient empires. A nice heroic war against Israel might be just what Egypt thinks it needs to rebuild its prestige.

Remember too, the Muslim Brotherhood, which birthed Hamas, began in Egypt. This is the same Muslim Brotherhood that took part in the Lebanese Civil war and has been a bugaboo of the entire Middle East. The former military man Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi only became the President of Egypt after defeating Mohammed Morsi, his Muslim Brotherhood predecessor, and surely the Brotherhood is waiting in the wings right now, planning both to overthrow him and to conquer as many other countries as possible.

Meanwhile, Egypt is cozying up to China, Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia. None of these, except the Saudis from time to time, has a warm relationship with either the U.S. or Israel. In fact, since Xi Jinping’s trip to Egypt in 2016, according to Puder, China has made $15 billion of investments in Egypt, making it a major competitor with the U.S. for influence. In short, all these enemies of the U.S. have incentives to furnish Egypt with the resources to attack Israel, if the opportunity presents itself, and Egypt may not need much prodding.

One more thing. Egypt has been active in negotiating release of the Israeli hostages from Gaza. Do you trust them?