Washington Apple Growers Gamble Big on Cosmic Crisp

One of the presentations made at the International Fruit Tree Association's annual conference in Wenatchee a couple of weeks ago included a graphic from a survey of the 4 largest apple tree nurseries in Washington that showed apple tree orders by variety by year from 2013 through 2018.

The graphic was full of interesting information and trends, but one that really stands out is the "all-in" stance the industry has taken on Cosmic Crisp (WA 38), the latest release from the WSU breeding program that is a cross between Honeycrisp and Enterprise. A whopping 40% of tree orders for 2018 are for this single managed variety. By 2019, something on the order of 12,000,000 Cosmic Crisp trees are set to be planted in Washington.

Let's put those 12 million trees in the next 2 years into perspective. At an average tree spacing of 4' x 10', we get a planting density of 1089 trees per acre. Some will be planted closer than that, some further, but I think on average 1089 trees per acre is about right for the rootstocks available and the prevailing training systems. 12 million trees at 1089 trees per acre represents just over 11,000 acres. In 2 years.

Orchard establishment costs for trees, trellis, land preparation, irrigation systems, etc. typically run about $25,000 per acre. That doesn't include land acquisition. Many of the Cosmic Crisp plantings will be replacing exisiting blocks, but not all. If land acquisition is included in establishment costs, the figure easily doubles to about $50,000 per acre (I know of a few cases of establishment costs including land acquisition that reached $60,000 per acre).

So, depending on whether or not new land is needed, the Washington apple industry has committed to borrow / spend / invest somewhere between $275,000,000 and $550,000,000 in a 2-year period on establishment costs alone for a single apple variety. That's a quarter billion to a half billion dollars. In 2 years.

That figure includes the $1.00 per tree royalty that growers will pay, but does not include the fruit production royalty of 4.75% of total box sales price for every box that is sold for $20.00 or more. So the additional costs don't stop with tree royalties at planting.

What makes this investment an even bigger gamble, is that it is being made on a variety that the end consumer has NEVER TASTED, NEVER SEEN, and NEVER HEARD OF. Not to mention that we really don't know much yet about how to grow or store it.

I will admit that the few Cosmic Crisp that I've eaten have been crisp, sweet, and juicy - a very good eating experience.  But I've also noticed that the appearance has been very inconsistent. Some have looked like an over-ripe, greasy red delicious (but tasted great), and other were more like a rounded bi-colored Honeycrisp or Gala.

If this variety is going to succeed, our marketing desks are going to have to figure out how to sell - and pay growers - based on quality (flavor & crunch) instead of on appearance. That would be quite an accomplishment given that for every other variety we grow, farmers are paid based on fruit cosmetics.

And, it's going to have to compete for shelf space with some other heavy-hitter managed varieties like Evercrisp, Envy, Jazz, MN55, and a whole host of others; plus the mainstream open varieties like Fuji, Gala, and Honeycrisp.

It will be intersting to look back in 15 years and see if this gamble paid off.