War's over.... now what?

8 minute read.... maybe 9 ;-)

All wars will end... eventually....hopefully....

Or, as Carl von Clausewitz the Prussian strategist, famously said, it will continue with different means, in the form of politics.

Anyway, before I continue...

DISCLAIMER

'The problem with the world is that the stupid are full of confidence and the wise full of doubt" (Free interpretation of squote from both Bertrand Russel & Charles Bukowski)

So, I'll try to be both modestly confident and doubtful. I'm not an expert, have never visited Russia or Ukraine, spend my days mostly in tranquil (office-) spaces, and have never experienced war in real life. That said, I would be very happy if the predictions I make in this article will never come to pass or will show up in a very mild way, but let's, in any case, be aware of their possible occurrence and start thinking about how to avoid and mitigate them instead of only focussing on the saber-rattling and immediate threats.

'Een gewaarschuwd mens telt voor twee' ('A warned person counts double') - Dutch Proverb

FIRST ORDER

On a daily bases, we are bombarded (pun intended) with news about conflicts like the one in Ukraine. Russia did this, and Ukraine responded that way... Will it turn nuclear? Will Nato be involved in a more direct way? These are all first-order or direct consequences of certain actions. During the Cold War (debatable whether it actually ended or was resuscitated), we lived under the threat of MAD - Mutually Assured Destruction or 'If they launch at us, we'll launch at them before their missiles hit us'.

As a Dutch kid of the '80, I remember the protests against US nuclear weapons being stationed on Dutch soil (They still are btw) and the current threat is not history repeating itself, but it's definitely slightly rhyming.

It is totally understandable that we are all focusing most of our valuable attention on the first-order effects: Tomorrow's breakfast is less important that our house that's on fire.

It is not stupid to point out that if we don't take care of the fire/stand up to tyrants/plug the hole in the dike, there might not be a house/future/dry place... so true! But if we only focus on the immediate threats we run from threat to threat, always prioritizing the first order.

Let's be honest, it is hard to look into the future and predict what will happen. We, humans, have a crystal clear record of failing to predict tomorrow's events (mostly because of our limitations and biases, but more about this in future articles (my prediction ;-) ). Let alone when the place is on fire and our brains go fully reptilian.

Let me be clear: The Ukrainian house is on fire.

SECOND ORDER EFFECTS

Sometimes we think about the consequences of our choices and actions, and very rarely do we think about the consequences of those consequences: The 'Second-order effects'.

Among the many possible explanations, a few stand out. Let's summarize them with the acronym 'VUCA'

VOLATILITY

'Change is the only constant' - The challenge today is that change is unpredictable and seems to go in all directions. The number and intensity of changes go up, making it even harder for us humans to identify- and cope with them.

UNCERTAINTY

When the past's events and dynamics don't seem to fit today's events, our rules and experiences lose their relevance as a basis for predictions and planning.

COMPLEXITY

Cause & effect are very hard to determine in a world that seems to get more complex every day. A simple product that we use every day is a combination of many intricate processes from all over the world. We humans like simplicity and look for patterns. This is virtually impossible nowadays. Let's be honest, we are barely scratching the climate-change surface.

AMBIGUITY

What does it mean? - When things change faster every day and the past doesn't provide all the answers you need to make sense of things, it becomes harder to use your sound judgment.

The acronym VUCA comes from the most prolific Acronym-generator: the US Military. I'll write more on VUCA in future articles.

We might safely call the world 'pretty VUCA'd-up'.

Now back to Ukraine!

THE END

We don't know how this war/'special military operation' is going to end exactly. However, I dare to put some money on the fact that it will be a Lose-Lose scenario; there are no real winners. In wars, there never are. Every side loses in terms of lives, resources, prosperity, dignity(this could also be won btw - Look at the glorious resilience and fighting spirit the Ukrainians show), and mostly, precious time. The only difference might be that one party loses slightly less or is the only one still able to walk.

I can't really speak about the feelings of resentment, frustration, and vengeance both the Ukrainians and Russians feel for each other, amongst themselves, and towards the rest of the world for (not) helping (enough) one of the parties.

What I like to focus on are some of the second-order effects that I expect we will see after the open hostilities/kinetic exchange have ceased or minimized.

Before we go on, two positive examples of having lost a war and coming out better on the other end: Germany & Japan after WWII. Irrespective of your political perspective, we can safely agree that the people in both countries, after some time, were better off in terms of freedom, wealth, health,... and basically everything else.

Personal note: It might well be possible that the devastating effects of the two atomic bombs on Japan helped instill us with enough fear for and resentment against the use of nuclear weapons... just sayin'.

SOME PREDICTIONS:

POVERTY

'War usually leaves us with a lot to want for, except for casualties, suffering, and rubble'.

The sheer devastation of the buildings and infrastructure that we witness every day, not only means that there is an enormous amount of demolishing, cleaning, and x ahead, but also a similar amount of repairing, rebuilding, and reorganizing. The same is through for all the people's lives that were, are, and will be intertwined with all these efforts. Let's not start a discussion on the financial aspects of all of this.

Long story short, Ukraine will be destitute. Yes, there will always be opportunities for smart people, but in the meantime the country, before the war one of the poorest in Europe, will see at least a decade of poverty. The (hopefully many) funds from Europe and the rest of the world will not really change that in the short term. The 'Breadbasket of Europe' needs to recover and resow their fields first. (The impending famines, especially in the Middle East and Africa, could be called Second-Order effects too - People there don't starve directly because people get shot in Ukraine; the fact that fields can't be worked, the grain not exported and farmers killed causes shortages, higher prices, and a reallocation of the available grain to the highest payers or shrewdest players (Looking at you, Turkiye).)

We don't have to dig deep to find some of the direct (First-order) and indirect (Second-order) effects of poverty. Health problems, unemployment, crime, squalor... the list goes on.

TRAUMA

Watching all the useless destruction of lives, buildings, and resources on the screen could already be quite traumatizing, Could you imagine the horror if that was actually your home, your family, or your dignity? The Ukrainian people will have myriad forms of trauma as a consequence of all their experiences for many generations to come. From the physical traumas to the less visible ones; mostly mental and in the familial sphere.

I predict a steep rise in the number of cases of suicide, domestic violence, drug abuse, depression, etc. Not only due to the war itself but also due to the economical and societal challenges afterward.

WAR

When the kinetic phase (aka the fighting) stops, we always have the remains of armies with their equipment that need to be dealt with. Soldiers need to be reintegrated into society, weapons managed, and explosives cleared. In war, there is one certainty: always point your weapon in the direction of your enemy, but what if you officially don't have an enemy anymore?

I predict that we will see many Ukrainians (and Russians) getting or keeping as many weapons for themselves as possible; you never know when 'they' come again for your home and family... Beyond that, we will see many warriors having difficulties finding themselves a new life in a place that needs builders instead of destroyers. We have seen it before: mercenaries, weapon deals, criminals... What about the enormous amount of mines and ordnance left on the field, causing maiming?

A grim example: we might see a rise in criminal acts with 'western-supplied' anti-tank missiles and other weapons, executed by former warriors.

STAGE RED - Power Politics

I want to briefly introduce a very interesting and valuable mental model/system: Spiral Dynamics. Clare Graves & Don Beck laid the foundation for this model that describes the development of humanity (and humans themselves) in the form of an upward spiral that oscillates between an EGO(individual) and ECO(group) focus.

Very briefly: We started in a BEIGE stage of survival of the fittest, and moved into a more animistic and tribal PURPLE stage in which working and being together in smaller groups was the way to survive. Leaving the campfire to pursue our own interests led to the RED stage of "might makes right". As an antidote to all the chaos and violence, people started to organize along religions & rules in stage BLUE. Escaping the stagnation and suffocation of a strict rules-based society, the ambitious evolved into a more ORANGE stage in which everything seemed to be possible if you just worked hard and made lots of money. Seeing the coldness and destruction stage GREEN sees the value of harmony and working together. Working together is foundational, but not enough according to YELLOW, which tries to see the systems and dynamics underlying everything. They seem to be the first stage that sees the previous ones in their own right. We are witnessing the dawn of Turquoise in which we experience everything as inseparable and aimed at higher forms of awareness.

Ok, this doesn't do it justice but notice that this part of the article is named STAGE RED. We may say that most of the West (I know that this term is not cool, but just bear with me for now) sits somewhere between blue, orange, and green, with some people still in Red and some up in Yellow. As soon as the organized, 'electrified & plumbed' society breaks down, we would see mobs and mobsters take over. These are typically RED elements. Our slow and mostly unaware journey up the spiral could and would unwind very fast. Climbing up with a lot of effort and a very easy slide down. Followers of 'The Walking Dead' will immediately understand this when I say 'Negan'...

RECONCILIATION

At the Nuremberg trials, many interesting things happened, but I would like to focus on two of them for now: 'Befehl ist Befehl' (We followed orders) and 'Victor's Justice' (according to the defendants).

We might wonder why so many Russians are still fighting in Ukraine when it is 'so clearly wrong' (Again not trying to understand #Russionality (Russian Rationality), as we did back in February). Many will say that they don't have a choice, were misinformed, etc. I will not judge today, but I will say that it will be a challenge to deal with people invoking 'Befehl ist Befehl'... and with their victims having trouble with that argument.

It is understandably hard to swallow that you have been on the 'wrong' side of history, that you have been lied to, that you have lost much for a lost cause.... if you are even able to grasp that at all. Let me just throw it out there: I hope Ukraine reconquers everything between its pre-214 borders and then finds the mental strength to stand strong and not enact vengeance. That we as the 'rest of the world' find the strength, courage, and above all wisdom to manage a 'defeated Russia' well, with the long term and harmony in mind.

Let me kick in an open door: Russia & Ukraine will stay neighbours. And as we all know, you need to find a 'modus vivendi' with your neighbours. Both need to recover and rebuild, probably have to trade with each other, and let's hope that in due time people will start again to marry and party with each other.

I predict that finding a balance between appeasing Ukraine's and the West's need for 'justice' on one side, and reconciliation with a Russia that will remain where it is, after all the atrocities, will be very challenging. Expect acts of vengeance.

'REST OF THE WORLD'

We, the 'rest of the world', are already experiencing waves of developments that are caused or aggravated by the war in Ukraine; from higher numbers of refugees and famines to higher energy prices... I probably overlook and underestimate many more effects. Are we willing to keep supporting Ukraine and if necessary forgive and help Russia on its feet again? Even if we are a bit cold in our homes...

POSITIVES

Pre-war there were more than enough things not going optimally in both countries: economically, legally, politically, and ecologically. The poorest countries in Europe, scoring high on the lists of countries with low transparency, high corruption, questionable human rights situations, etc.

Shaking up society could also help float positive elements to the surface. The old order out of the way, younger generations, innovation, and free speech might take more space. But let's be clear, this is not guaranteed!

As a species, we have seen quite a lot of shit over the past 10.000 years of (semi-) recorded history. Except for many bumps, our overall trajectory had an upward angle. 'We' bounced back from being severely existentially threatened (Plagues, Mongol hordes, etc.) many times. I will refrain from saying too much about our hopes for the future, but I'd say that not accounting for apocalyptical threats like our climate, nuclear war, or unfriendly lifeforms (including virii - foreign(incl extraterrestrial) or domestic), in due time we will find some form of balance. We always have... but whether it's a stable one....

And experience some interesting Third order effects!

Have you analyzed the dynamics & challenges in and around your organization? Do you know what First-, Second-, and possibly Third-order effects will affect it, now and in the future?

We at Comsigliere are here right with you. We use #REDSPRINTING to look at all aspects in and around your organization and today's dynamics and challenges. We believe that you can't fully predict but you can always prepare!

When Sh#t hits the fan, the calm and prepared ones usually end up on top!