With a Warming World, Global Collaboration is What We Need to Reverse the Climate Crisis

This week, the world’s climate leaders will convene at the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP28, in Dubai. This is a critical moment. While global warming progresses faster than expected, climate change and other crises reverse progress on the Sustainable Development Goals. Still, wealthy nations have not fulfilled their climate commitments or taken necessary actions to assist those most affected by climate change. The Rockefeller Foundation team and I will be in Dubai to mobilize partners from government, philanthropy, and the private sector to meet this moment.

To underscore the stakes and what must be done, The Rockefeller Foundation is releasing a report, Vulnerable Populations in a Warming World; Four Futures Explored . With data analyzed from 190 countries, the report reveals what a warmer world will mean for people over the remainder of the century. It also makes clear that the world can still prevent the worst outcomes of global warming and that there is a viable path to a greener, safer, and more equitable future.

Four Futures Explored

Based on inputs from The Rhodium Group’s Climate Impact Lab and Catalyst Partners, Vulnerable Populations in a Warming World explores four plausible climate scenarios and what they would mean for both people and the planet.

• In a “Business as Usual” scenario, where current trends in emissions growth and energy use continue, we would see 2.8 degrees Celsius warming by 2090. The effects of that warming would not only harm our planet but drastically affect those in the world’s poorest and most vulnerable countries. For example, projections show that every region in the world will likely experience a decrease in staple crop production because of warming, and it’s the areas already facing food insecurity today that will feel the impact most acutely.
• The “Fossil Fuels for the Poor” scenario illustrates a future where developed and emerging economies address their own emissions but do little to assist energy-poor countries in decarbonizing as they grow out of energy poverty. As a result, emissions from energy-poor countries rapidly increase as they develop with abundant, low-cost fossil fuels. In this scenario, energy-poor countries would contribute three-quarters of global emissions by 2050, and we would reach 2.4 degrees Celsius of warming before the end of the century.
• The “Climate Catastrophe” scenario is even more dire. In a scenario where global efforts to curb emissions fail, we would see at least 4.5 degrees Celsius of warming by 2090, with severe consequences for billions of people. This level of warming would result in higher food insecurity and mortality rates. Meanwhile, other factors like displacement, conflict, and social unrest are likely to increase, further complicating efforts to reverse course.
• The “Global Cooperation” scenario shows how we can keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius. This scenario would not only keep warming in check, but it would also improve well-being and opportunity for the 3.6 billion people currently deprived of reliable electricity. Reaching this outcome requires rich countries to decarbonize while supporting decarbonization and increasing access to renewable power in energy-poor countries. Those efforts could help energy-poor country’s emissions peak by 2040, with net-zero emissions achieved by 2070.

Collaboration is the only way forward

These scenarios show that meeting the moment will require swift global cooperation—no workable scenario exists where industrialized countries push to decarbonize while leaving poorer countries to fend for themselves. We must work together.

For our part, The Rockefeller Foundation is investing $1 billion over the next five years to advance the global climate transition and achieve a science-based Net Zero standard for our operations and endowment. COP28 will be an opportunity to inspire others to join us in raising our ambitions, acting boldly, and making the big bets our planet and its people need.