Welcome to Geopolitical Dispatch's weekly digest.?
On Halloween eve 1938, panic swept the United States after an emergency broadcast came over the airwaves advising of a Martian invasion - even after Orson Welles came on and announced the program was actually a radio drama version of HG Wells’ War of the Worlds.
A few weeks earlier, leaders of Great Britain, France and Italy signed the Munich Agreement appeasing Hitler and permitting the German annexation of the Sudetenland. A year later, the world was at war - but not with extraterrestrials.
Last week, almost exactly 95 years later, world leaders convened to discuss the potentially existential threats posed not by aliens but by artificial intelligence
, which we took an in-depth look at in our weekly essay.
While the conference did not cause mass panic in quite the same way, it did spook many. And, most spookily, it took place against the backdrop of rising tensions
between democratic and authoritarian great powers, calls for Ukraine to accept annexation of lost territories
and for Western appeasement, and a major geopolitical flashpoint in Israel-Gaza risking foreign intervention
.?
History may not repeat, but sometimes it rhymes. A good enough reason to stay abreast of geopolitical developments, which you can do by reading below, subscribing to our (free) daily briefings
, and following us on X (Twitter)
and Instagram
.
- The war in Ukraine ground on - suggestions of stalemate and negotiation are dividing Kyiv
as morale worsens, army recruitment stalls and Western arms are less forthcoming with Ukraine awaiting appropriations from Congress.
- Russia's economy remains strong
owing to non-Western ties, especially with China. While efficacy of sanctions imposed on Russia appears limited so far
, with Russia maintaining robust military production capabilities and demonstrating self-sufficiency, the EU is nevertheless weighing more sanctions
.
- As the West engages with Ukraine and Israel, the rise of authoritarianism threatens democracy
, potentially encouraging more concerted efforts for its preservation and driving increased integration within blocs like the EU - but there is also a growing trend of EU member states pursuing independent trade arrangements
.
- Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez faces increased pressure over Catalonia's independence referendum
, which could significantly impact Spain's geopolitical influence, given Catalonia's 19% share of the national GDP.
- Montenegro's dedication to multilateralism
through its alignment with the European Union, despite current economic hardships marked by inflation and a lack of foreign direct investment, presents an avenue for potential economic revitalization.
- Sudan's Rapid Support Forces
, supported by the UAE and Russia's Wagner Group, have seized a crucial airport near oil fields and the city of Nyala. These advances come amidst Sudan's economic instability, despite its resource wealth.
- Germany's leaders visited West Africa
to strengthen economic ties in a region dealing with security concerns. Africa's market retains its appeal and could one day contribute up to 40% of global GDP.
- Elevated geopolitical tensions have arisen in the Middle East due to Israel's recent strike on the Jabalia
camp.
- Israel claims the target was a Hamas senior leader, but the attack has led to diplomatic ties being restricted by multiple nations, including Yemen and Syria.
- Houthi attacks on Israel
could strain Saudi Arabia and Iran's relations, despite their shared condemnation of Israel.
- The efficacy of democracy in addressing separatism is in question. Unrest in India and Myanmar
has regional implications, drawing China's attention over border tensions and associated economic and territorial concerns.
- The world faces a pressing issue regarding the global migration crisis. The detention and deportation of Afghan refugees by Pakistani
forces increases the burden on Europe to manage ongoing flows, granting political leverage to far-right parties.
- China and ASEAN
are strengthening their ties, planning a "Code of Conduct" for the South China Sea by 2026. While tensions with the US persist
, China's economic presence in the region is growing.?
- China's engagement in Antarctica
, including an agreement with Argentina for port access and plans for satellite stations, prompts examination of its intentions, whether for scientific or military purposes, under the watchful eye of the United States.
- Australia
grapples with the delicate task of balancing diplomatic ties with China against its agreement with the United States on nuclear-powered submarines, involving trade and security interests.
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